[Droford]

My Betting Picks Week 6 (Season 31-41-5 ATS)

Gonna give this another go.

Lions - 4.5 vs 49ers: The 49ers are a solidly coached team thats coming off a blowout win vs an ok Bucs team, but I dont think they will be prepared to go into Ford Field and hand the Lions their first loss.

Colts +7 @ Bengals: Not buying the Bengals covering such a large spread vs a team that, despite still being winless, has stayed competitive especially since Curtis Painter got the starting QB job.

Bills +3 @ Giants: If you subscribe to the "home field is worth 3 points in Vegas" idea, then essentially this would be a pickem on a neutral field. I dont know how you can say that considering how bad the Giants looked last week vs a pretty pathetic Seahawks team.

Redskins +3 vs Eagles: Again, I have no idea how the Eagles are favored in this game on the road. I think people think its just a matter of time before the Eagles turn things around, but that was supposed to happen last week and the week before..and it hasn't happened yet. I think the Redskins will win outright and pretty much sink the Eagles ship at the bottom of the NFC East.

Steelers -12.5 vs Jaguars: I was trying to come up with some scenario where the Steelers wouldn't cover this large of a spread but aside from Rashean Mathis being a pain in the Steelers' asses (3 Ints for TDs vs the Steelers, 0 vs the rest of the NFL) I can't really see the Jaguars offense being able to keep up with the Steelers enough to keep it close.

Packers -15 vs Rams : 15 points is a lot of points to give up in the NFL, but Rodgers and Company shouldn't have any problem at Lambeau with the Rams.

Falcons -4.5 vs Panthers: The Panthers have covered each of the first 5 games despite only being 1-4. I think Vegas kept the line low to get people to bet on the Panthers hoping for a lucky backdoor cover, and because of how bad the Falcons looked last week. The Falcons are still much better at home than on the road, and I see them winning by at least a TD.

Ravens -7 vs Texans: My favorite stat for this game is that the Ravens are 7-0 all time vs teams from Texas (4-0 vs Houston). Given the Texans injury problems and how well the Ravens play at home and how well they defend the run, I can't see the Texans hanging in with the Ravens.

Raiders -7 vs Browns: The emotion surrounding Al Davis along with playing a mediocre at best Browns team should mean that the Raiders are the right call to cover.

Cowboys +7 @ Patriots : Rob Ryan is the key to this game for the Cowboys. Ryan was the defensive coordinator for the Browns last year when they whipped up on the Patriots last year and although most of that games result was due to Peyton Hillis running all over the Patriots, his defensive schemes held Tom Brady in check for most of the game. Combine that with the possibility that Romo torches the Patriots maligned secondary and I could see the makings of an upset in New England.

Saints -6.5 @ Buccaneers: Legarrette Blount is out for at least a month for the Bucs, who were embarassed last week on the road by the 49ers. Traditionally the Bucs are not a good home team, and facing a hot Saints team after last week is probably not what they wanted to see in Tampa Bay.

Vikings +3 @ Bears: I like the Vikings defense against the Bears, although the Vikings offense troubles me a little. But if they get Peterson running early it should take the heat off of McNabb just enough and he has played well vs the Bears in the past.

Jets -7 vs Dolphins: I really dont think theres much of a chance that Matt Moore can go into NY and beat the Jets, especially when the Jets are in a somewhat desperate need of a win and can't afford a 4th straight loss if they want to have any chance to make the playoffs.

4-5-2 ATS