View Full Version : NFC Playoff picture?

12-23-2003, 11:54 AM
Last night if you watched Monday Night Football you probably heard at least once Al Micheals rambling on about how the Pittsburgh vs Baltimore game could actually determine the remaining NFC wildcard spot. I understand that it may be possible based on the crazy strength of schedule type rules, but in this situation I don't see where that is possible.

The way they layed it out is that if Minnesota wins, thereby winning the division, the wildcard spot comes down to Green Bay and Seattle. If both teams win their last game they will both finish with a 10-6 record. According to the MNF guys, if this occurs along with Dallas losing then the Baltimore/Pittsburgh thing comes into play.

However, according to the rules layed out here (http://www.nfl.com/news/981202ties.html) from NFL.com if two teams are tied, the first tie breaker is if the teams played head to head. Well the Packers beat the Seahawks in the regular season, shouldn't that be the end of the tie breaker thing without involving Pitt/Bal or even Dallas?

If I'm misunderstanding something please help me out. Oh yea, and umm..... go Packers!!

Guest #1
12-23-2003, 02:59 PM
I didn't see MNF, so I can't comment upon what they said, but if they did say as you did, then they must be suffering from underdone Turducken.

No AFC match can effect the NFC. The Pit/Bal game has ramifications on the AFC picture, on who wins the AFC North. Cinci needs a loss by Bal and a win against Cle.

NFC is as you state. Min or GB to win the NFC North, Min has the lead, and the one that doesn't win needs either to have Sea lose or Dal win, as Sea has the better Strength of Victory.

Of course, MNF cannot be blamed too much if they do get it wrong, NFL playoff tie breaking system is more confusing than Feng Shui.NFL Playoff Breakdown (http://www.superbowl.com/news/story/6863112)

road doggy dogg
12-23-2003, 03:02 PM
That's what I thought too, but they clearly stated at least three times that the Pittsburgh/Baltimore game COULD affect Green Bay's chances.

12-23-2003, 03:10 PM
Yea, their reasoning had something to do with Seattle beating Pitt in the regular season. I didn't understand it completely, but it's something along the lines of the strength of schedule or the strength of opponent thing.

Guest #1
12-23-2003, 03:25 PM
According to the NFL.com , which I take as experts, that game doesn't effect the NFC playoffs. But who knows?

here (http://www.superbowl.com/news/story/6863112)

Guest #1
12-23-2003, 03:52 PM
According to Y! sports, Sea would win a tie breaker over GB, if Dal lost to NO, since Sea has the better strength of Victory by 2 games. As I understand it, it means that the teams Sea beat have 2 more victories than those the Cowboys beat. In such a senario, if the Cowboys lost, their team cannot get the totals from the Saints, but it would take more than just a single loss by the Steelers to change the Strength of victory. In the final week, the combinations of all the teams Dallas won has to be 3 better than those who lost to Sea. This does get confusing!!

Y! (http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news;_ylc=X3oDMTBpcTFhbmEwBF9TAzk1ODYxMDU5BHNlYwN0bQ--?slug=playoffscenarios&prov=yhoo&type=lgns)

EDIT: The more I think about it, the more confusing it gets. If there is a tie with GB and Sea.
GB won the head to head.
It is being reported that if Dal lost to the Saints, then Sea would get in via their SOV over the 'Hawks, but neither the Hawks nor the Pack have played the Cowboys. A Cowboy's loss to the Saints does improve the record of the Saints, which loss to Sea.
Then the MNF comment about the PIT/BAL game. Sea played both, lost to the Ravens and beat the Stealers. (I think this is a wash) as if Pit wins they beat a stronger team in Pit but lost to a weaker team in BAL, and vice versus if the Ravens win.
What it comes down to should be the record that the teams GB and Sea played. In either senario, I can't see how PIT/BAL or the DAL/NO effect the GB SEA race.

12-23-2003, 07:35 PM
Why can't they just have it simple, and have half of the teams qualify, all the 1st and 2nd placed ones :(

Come on Vikings :@

road doggy dogg
12-24-2003, 12:49 AM
Well all that matters is that Minnesota and Seattle will lose and Green Bay will win and make the play-offs

12-24-2003, 01:39 AM
Sheesh reading all that confused the hell out of me, but kinda makes sense. I can understand that all that would come into play if they hadn't faced each other in the reg season (GB and Sea) but with GB's victory over the Seahawks I don't see why that doesn't negate all of this. I don't see why Seattle beating theoretically stronger opponents would matter when they lost to GB.

The theory that the NFL seems to use is that if Team A beat Team B, then Team B beats Team C, Team A must be better than Team C as well and is therefore the best team. By that reasoning the Seahawks (team B) beat teams C, D, and E (Pitt, Bal, or whoever) which makes them have a very good strength of victory (or whatever it's called) but GB (team A) beat Seattle anyway, that should be the only tiebreaker they need right? A > B > C >D >E. It seems like they are trying to make things more complicated than they really should be.

Like I said, all of this would be justified (as crazy as it is) if the two teams never faced each other, but the fact is that they did face each other and there was a clear outcome. I'm starting to think they should just make a mandatory week between the end of reg season and the beggining of the playoffs. This week will be an off week for the more dominant teams and it will be known as "Tie Break Week." Any teams who are in contention for a playoff spot but are tied at the end of the season will have a playoff qualifying game. Hmm I guess that doesn't work if there is a 3-way tie huh? Damn, I thought I was on to something there.

Ok, I'll stop rambling. Maybe will get lucky and SF will beat Sea and we won't have to bother with all this tie break stuff. I'd like to see Arizona beat Minnesota too, but I'm not getting my hopes up on that one.

12-24-2003, 03:11 AM
RDD, you seem to be forgetting who Minnesota plays next weekend...

12-24-2003, 04:35 AM
Minnesota has sucked on the road lately (I think they've lost like 4 straight to Oakland, St. Louis, San Diego, and Chicago) . Arizona tends to play well at home. It's far from an easy game for Minneota.

road doggy dogg
12-24-2003, 04:39 AM
Yeah remember when Minnesota "won" against San Diego, the Giants, Oakland and Chicago too

Oh wait I get your point, Arizona's a bad team :o

12-24-2003, 11:30 AM
It's not something I like to remember very often, but Arizona did beat Green Bay this year too :(

The Miz
12-24-2003, 11:43 AM
Seattle will lose
sorry, we're playing the Niners. :kiss:

12-24-2003, 01:19 PM
Also, GB are playing Denver, so the pressure is on GB now really :o

12-24-2003, 01:51 PM

I headed over to Packers.com to see what they had to say about the whole situation. It's finally been cleared up to me.

If the Packers and Seahawks both lose, or all 3 (Sea, GB, Dal) win, it will be a two way tie between Sea and GB. This is the scenario in which the Packers reg season victory is the tie breaker. Simple as that. However, if both teams win, and Dallas loses, it won't be a two way tie between the two teams (this is what I've been overlooking), it will be a 3 way tie between Sea, GB, and Dal. In certain scenarios Seattle's strength of victory is stronger than that of Dallas. This earns Seattle the first wild card spot. The second wild card spot would then go to Dallas over Green Bay.

From Packers.com
Some games to watch:

Buffalo at New England (Sat., Dec. 27 - 12:30 CT): A Buffalo win helps Dallas' strength of victory over Seattle, which is beneficial to the Packers in the event of a three-way tie.

Seattle at San Francisco (Sat., Dec. 27 - 4 p.m. CT): A San Francisco win clinches a Wild Card berth for the Packers regardless of their game against the Broncos. A Seattle win forces a Packers win against the Broncos.

Philadelphia at Washington (Sat., Dec. 27 - 4 p.m. CT): A Washington win helps Dallas' strength of victory and potentially gives Dallas extra incentive to win at New Orleans as the NFC East title would be up for grabs.

Dallas at New Orleans (Sun., Dec. 28 - Noon CT): A Dallas win eliminates the potential for a three-way tie with Seattle and Green Bay that could eliminate the Packers from playoff contention.

Minnesota at Arizona (Sun., Dec. 28 - 3 p.m. CT): The Packers only hope of winning the NFC North requires an Arizona win.

Denver at Green Bay (Sun, Dec. 28 - 3:15 p.m. CT): To reach the playoffs, the Packers will be in a must-win situation unless Seattle loses to San Francisco.

Those are scenarios that favor the Packers. The Bal/Pitt game could strengthen Seattle's strength of victory therefore negatively effecting the Packers chances in the playoffs. I never realized the playoffs were so complicated.

The Miz
12-24-2003, 02:00 PM
dallas already has a playoff spot

road doggy dogg
12-24-2003, 02:10 PM
sorry, we're playing the Niners. :kiss:

on the road*

road doggy dogg
12-24-2003, 02:11 PM
Just to throw another wrench into the mix...

Say Minnesota loses, and Green Bay wins to claim the NFC North. What are Minnesota's wildcard chances then?

The Outlaw
12-24-2003, 04:05 PM
Yeah, we have it tough with red-hot Denver. :(

But, I'm a Seahawk fan too, so it's hard for me to want them to lose. But they are playing on the road. ({)

The Miz
12-24-2003, 04:11 PM
i think you're forgetting about the 38-0 whooping we put on the cardinals on the road. :roll:


12-24-2003, 07:07 PM
dallas already has a playoff spot

Never said they didn't.