| Damian Rey |
06-14-2014 02:53 AM |
God, the Padres are so fucking awful. I expect them to at least compete with the Mets. Instead, they get shut down outside of a couple of shimmers of hope. Time to clean out the roster and give my annual state of the team...
PLAYERS ON THE BLOCK
CHRIS DENORFIA
Great platoon player who can masquerade as an everday player. Can play all three outfield positions, though he's not ideal in CF on an everday basis. Great base runner. His slash is down this year (.259/.306/.358) from his career (278/.338/.405), but I think that's a combo of being about 10 points off his career babip, and not playing as regularly in past years due to the emergence of Seth Smith and Cameron Maybin being healthy, along with Venable and Quentin also being active. He's still a solid pickup who might net a decent low level prospect, and create a roster spot for a minor leaguer. Deno is a free agent after this year.
SETH SMITH
This guy has been a huge win for the Padres. I always liked him as a platoon from back when he was on the Rockies, and though I didn't care for the trading of Luke Gregerson for him, I have ot amdit the move was brilliant, as he's been the team's best hitter. He's currently slashing a robust .294/.393/.522, and has already accumulated 2.1 WAR through just over a third of the season. If he keeps pace, he's going to bury his previous career WAR of 2.3 back in 09 with Colorado. He's not particularly great in the corners, but that could be exposed more times than not consider how Petco has a huge outfield. He's a stud against righties, and, like Denorfia, would create a roster spot for a younger player by being moved. He too is a free agent at years end.
HUSTON STREET
Been absolutely nails since he was acquired for a former first rounder in Nick Schmidt, who went to Colorado in exchange. He can be homer prone, as we've seen in the past, and Petco definitely masks his flaws at times, but he is a strike thrower, is cheap considering what closers costs these days, and comes with a not so bad $7 mil option for next year.
EVERTH CABRERA
I get a lot of shit for saying this to fellow Padres fans, but I'd be qucikly on the move to try and get a team to overpay for Cabrera. Even though he has been awful this year offensively, there's a lot to like. His on base career number is .320. Michael Bourne has seen his value sky rocket by being a decent lead off hitter with speed and defense at a premium position. Cabrera could continue to mature into that of he can bounce back this year, especially if he remembers how to draw walks again. That current number is currently sitting at 4%, down from 9% for his career coming into the year. No reason to think he won't eventually realize a lot of his value last year came from drawing walks while dropping in hits. He's also got 2 more years of control after this season, but, being a Boras client, it's highly unlikely he'd sign anything resembling a team friendly deal that would lock him up for into his 30s. That also works in the team's favor though, since the team buying him from the Padres would get him for an extended period of time, through his final 2 prime years. I highly doubt he gets moved, especially since would be incumbent Jace Peterson has struggled at the dish this year. But if the price is right and they can reap an above average prospect or two not too far away, then I'd definitely try and swing a deal.
CARLOS QUENTIN
He's just not healthy enough to be more than a DH at this point, and because of silly things like tradition, that won't be available in the NL in enough time for the Padres to actually maximize Quentin's value. He excels at the two most important aspects of offense in the game; gets on base and hits for power. He carries a limited no trade clause, so moving him might be tricky, especially if the teams eligible for his services aren't in the hunt/looking for a DH, but putting him through waivers after the deadline and hoping someone bites is not a bad idea. It would clear up payroll space and allow the team to waive goodbye to a good idea in theory.
IAN KENNEDY
Has pitched decently this year. Strikeouts are up, walks are down, and he's still a few ticks up on his career babip, which means it would not be unrealistic to see him get better as the season goes on. Anything that could be even major league average in return would be a steal, since he was acquired for a lefty specialist who averaged about an out per appearance. He's still a bit homer prone, and can struggle in a smaller park. But with the type of year he's having, and the fact that starting pitching is always an asset to be had at the deadline, he may be the team's most attractive piece with 1.5 years of control left.
Honorable mentions are Chase Headley and Joaquin Benoit. Headley hasn't seen anything near the form he saw in the second half of 2012, or even the first half. He did finish 2013 at a respectable .250/.347/.400, compliling just shy of 4 WAR in a year where he struggled with a few nagging injuries. He's a free agent after this year, so even if he does turn it on over the next 2 months, he's likely not going to fetch a huge return unless a team gets desperate because he's unlikely to sign due to a thin 3rd base market next year.
Benoit is curious just because they signed him this off season, and he's been terrific. He's also pretty affordable, if a team wants him to close, but it unneeded on a losing team not likely to take advantage of his maximum value. It would create a bit of hole at the back end of the bullpen should the Padres move both he and Street, but I am of the mind that you can find guys with decent enough stuff to close on a losing team that moving two guys with value is only going to help.
The other move I see (and hope) is Bud Black getting the axe. He just is not a good manager. Black fails at in game strategy, and basic roster optimization. Certain players have to play because there are no viable alternatives. So, even though they've been awful, guys like Headley, Cabrera, Alonso and Gyorko have to get the chance to improve, because there's literally no one else. But others, like Venable, who is fucking awful this year, is getting consistent playing time over guys like Denorfia and Cameron Maybin, who have been better than him this year, and in Deno's case, since day one.
Black also does not utilize basic statistics in fielding a lineup. I think, these days, for the most part, people realize on base percentage is an important and telling stat, best utilized in the first 3-4 lineup spots, where your best hitters are and most scoring opportunities arise. Black does not comprehend this. He has continually batted Cabrera and Venable, two players with SUB .300 OBP'S in the 1-2 spots. And it's not something that's every now and then. Cabrera has yet to bat lower than 2 all year, despite struggling all year. Venable has been a league average hitter his entire career, but yet finds himself, in the middle of his worst season, hitting at the top of the order, while Maybin hits in the bottom 3rd when he does play, and Deno sits the bench. Meanwhile, Seth Smith can't buy an RBI because, despite his manly slash line, nobody's ever on base when he comes up.
It's mind boggling that my feeble brain can see this and make a direct connection with the two guys hitting 1-2 and the lack of overall offense despite a more than capable 3 hitter this year, but Bud Black can't figure it out and continues to give the same old "it'll turn around" press answer night in and night out.
Hopefully the team does turn it around, because about a calender year ago, their entire middle infield was, statistically, above average. And I don't fee Headley, Cabrera, Gyorko and Alonso will be awful forever. Alonso has actually shown signs of improving. His babip is starting to climb, and his power that was sapped from a hand/wrist injury it starting to come back after posting a decent month of May. Hopefully the rest follow suit, so they can be traded and I can move on with my life.
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