TPWW Forums - MLB 2011 Season Thread

<font color=goldenrod>NL East

1. Philadelphia Phillies
Don’t really see how anybody could not pick the Phillies here. When you win a division 4 years in a row, you should automatically be the favorites the next year – especially when you have such a ricockulous rotation. The Phillies DO have holes. Their pen looks pretty bleak and their lineup has some question marks, the biggest of which being Chase Utley’s knee. Still, barring a lot of injuries you gotta go with the Phils here.

2. Atlanta Braves
The Braves have a really solid team. Their rotation looks good (especially Tim Hudson, who seems to be undervalued) and their pen has a lot of really good young arms. Uggla should be a huge addition to the lineup, although he’s pound to hurt them with his glove. McCann worries me this year and I’m not sure how Freeman will do in his first full season. Can see them giving the Phils a run for their money and staying in Wild Card contention until the end.

3. New York Mets
This is basically a free year for Alderson to evaluate and get ready to work with the free space with salaries coming off the books next year. If Beltran stays healthy most of the season (a big if) I think the Mets should score a ton of runs. Davis is a beast and 25 or so HRs for Bay in a bounceback year is possible. Rotation has potential, and I think Young and Capuano will prove to be decent finds. I’m thinking right about .500 this year.

4. Florida Marlins
A lot of youth on this team, so I think there may be some growing pains. Josh Johnson is great but I’m really not too sold on the rest of their rotation. Similarly, Hanley is amazing but so many of the other guys in the lineup are really unproven. I’m just not sure what to make of them. I also think John Buck takes a huge step back from last season, so that’ll hurt the lineup a bit. Another team that will probably finish around .500 but the future might look bright.

5. Washington Nationals
No shockers here, Nats finish in the cellar for the umpteenth year in a row. No idea why the fuck they gave Jayson Werth 7 years. Zimmerman is really good and they have some decent young players but it’s probably gonna be another long year. Biggest stories will be how Bryce Harper handles the minors and how Strasburg does in rehab. They’re another team that should be looking to next year, probably around 70 wins or so.

NL Central

1. Cincinnati Reds
I’m a believer in the Reds. I really love their lineup and wouldn’t be shocked at all to see Votto right back in the MVP contention again this year. Their rotation isn’t exactly spectacular, but it’s filled with guys who should get the job done more often than not. Having Volquez for a full season should help. Also eager to see how Chapman does with a full year in the pen. Can’t see why he wouldn’t supplant Cordero once his contract is up.

2. Milwaukee Brewers
They’ve made some big improvements and should be right in the thick of the division race. Fielder should have a monster year with his contract expiring at the end of the season. Gallardo is the goods and Greinke/Marcum should have fun in the National League. Axford and Saito should provide a solid back-end of the bullpen. Don’t think Betancourt should be an everyday starter. Nearly had the Brewers as my wild card pick.

3. Chicago Cubs
I really like the Garza trade and think he will be a stud in the National League. If Zambrano can keep his head screwed on straight it should be a good rotation. They are idiots if they put Braden Looper on the team. I like their lineup for the most part but Carlos Pena pretty much sucks. Aramis should rebound this year which will go a long way. Cubs should be able to stay competitive until September and might be a free agent away from making a push in 2012.

4. St. Louis Cardinals
Amazing how much of a difference one loss can make. I was seriously considering making the Cards my Central winners this year before Wainwright went down. I like their lineup a lot and think Berkman will prove to be a great move. But their rotation loses a lot of its luster without Wainwright. Carpenter should be good but I think Garcia outperformed his peripherals last year and as a #2 starter that won’t work. I’m sure Pujols will be back in 2012 at least.

5. Houston Astros
Looking like another pretty bleak year for Houston. No one aspect of their team really stands out. Carlos Lee should have a better year but that may be offset by the fact that I think Brett Myers will regress. Watching Jason Castro develop could have been fun but now he’s out for most of the year and his ability to catch may be in doubt. There’s just not a whole lot going on here and they are saved from being in the cellar only because they aren’t the Pirates.

6. Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates finishing last just feels like a slam dunk year in a year out. They have some promising young players but their front office doesn’t seem committed to winning so they might be out the door in the blink of an eye. At least they are meant to have one of the nicest stadiums in baseball, looking forward to checking it out when I head to Pittsburgh for the Mets series in June.

NL West

1. Colorado Rockies
I like the look of this Rockies team a lot. Their rotation has crazy good potential despite playing in Coors. Don’t see why Ubaldo and De La Rosa can’t come close to duplicating their performance from a year ago. Tulo and Gonzalez make for a good middle of the order and I don’t see Tulo being complacent with his fuckoff huge contract. Think this team has enough to put it together and wins their first ever NL West crown.

2. San Francisco Giants (WC)
I don’t think last year was a fluke for the Giants, I just happen to like the Rockies slightly better. I think this divisional race will be the tightest in the NL and the Giants coming right down to the wire with the Brewers for a Wild Card spot (maybe a one-game playoff?) Their lineup looks way better than it did heading into last year, and their pitching should still be great. The glorious beards should have another playoff run in them.

3. Los Angeles Dodgers
Dodgers have a pretty good team that should be in the mix most of the year. The big question is whether or not Kemp will bounce back from a disappointing 2010. His production will be huge this season. They have a healthy mix of young guys and vets on the pitching staff which should yield pretty good results. I’m thinking the Dodgers finish well over .500 and have a good season to build on for next year.

4. San Diego Padres
Their pitching is just flat-out awesome. It’s going to have to carry them this year because their lineup is shit especially with no Gonzalez. Still, I think they can pull a ton of 1-run wins thanks to their pitching ala last year. Unfortunately, their division is too strong to think they’ll be as competitive as last year. If their hitting prospects get big league ready in the near future, look out for this team in 2011 and beyond.

5. Arizona Diamondbacks
Much like the rest of the NL West, the Diamondbacks made me look stupid last year by picking them as the Wild Card. Don’t have as much of a reason to be that optimistic about them this year. I actually like the look of their lineup and think they should score a good amount of runs, but their rotation just seems incredibly blah outside of Daniel Hudson and their bullpen is even worse. 90+ losses seems like a fairly safe bet for them this season.

AL East

1. New York Yankees
Most seem to have the Yankees finishing behind the Red Sox due to their rotation, but I don’t think it’s too bad – especially since I’m pretty sure they’ll trade for another starter by July 31. Their lineup will score a shitload as expected and their pen looks really strong, let’s see if Pedro Feliciano’s arm finally combusts. It’s a tough call between them and the Red Sox and it should be a tight race all year, but I’m gonna go with the Bombers.

2. Boston Red Sox (WC)
Though it feels this way every year, it feels like a slam dunk that both the Yanks and Sox will make it anyway. Like I said before, I don’t think Boston’s rotation is that much better than New York’s. Buchholz will probably come back down to Earth and I’m not sure what Beckett and Lackey will bring. Pen is really solid and the offense will score a fuckload, especially Gonzalez who is gonna have a ridiculous year in Fenway.

3. Tampa Bay Rays
Crawford is gonna prove to be a big loss for them, really not impressed with their lineup outside of Longoria. Their big strength is their pitching, which should be great. Price should be in for another good year and I’m eager to see what Hellickson will bring to the table in a full season. Also gotta figure Shields has a bounce-back season. They’re in an unfortunate division but with some offense they should definitely stick around in contention.

4. Baltimore Orioles
Quite possibly the most improved team in baseball. They might finally get over .500, or at least really close to it. Their lineup is gonna rake in Camden. Vlad was a good pickup, Markakis should get his power numbers back up, Jones should continue to improve, and Reynolds will hopefully bat over the Mendoza line. Pitching staff is pretty young and will probably have some growing pains, but overall a good year for the O’s.

5. Toronto Blue Jays
This pick continues the recurring theme – a team on the rise who unfortunately play in the AL East. It will be great for them to get a full year of big league seasoning for Drabek, Arencibia, etc. in a year where not too much is expected of them. If these guys wind up being the studs most expect them to be, the East should be a truly ridiculous division with 5 teams strong for years to come.

AL Central

1. Minnesota Twins
The Twins are just a model of consistency year in and year out. It doesn’t matter if there are injuries, people having down years, etc. – Gardenhire always finds a way. A returning Nathan and Capps should be a lethal back end of the bullpen and Morneau coming back strong gives them an imposing lineup. This division is a tough one to forecast, but I’m gonna go with the old reliable pick here and say the Twins win another AL Central title.

2. Chicago White Sox
Dunn was a big acquisition and should continue his near-40 HR power. If Konerko puts up similar numbers to 2010 then that’s some serious sock in the middle of the lineup, especially with Pierre and Rios racking up steals in front of them. Not sure who will be doing the closing between Thornton or Sale, but either way I like the look of their pitching staff. Buehrle, Danks, and Floyd are all solid. Good year overall for the Sox, but not good enough to play in October.

3. Detroit Tigers
Verlander, Scherzer, and Porcello should form a solid top of the rotation. Cabrera is the goods, alcohol-induced or not. Martinez should provide good production, and I like Jackson and Boesch a lot. Their bullpen seems a bit spotty and I think Benoit is bound to regress after his ridiculously good 2010. With the Indians and Royals behind them, the Tigers have more than enough talent to finish comfortably in 3rd place.

4. Cleveland Indians
Shin-Soo Choo and the continued development of Carlos Santana are the main reasons to watch the Indians this year. The pitching staff looks pretty dreadful outside of Carmona and Chris Perez. Sizemore bouncing back seems like a pretty big question mark even though he was never really THAT good to begin with. Unless they bring back Ricky “Wild Thing” Vaughn this will probably be a long season for them.

5. Kansas City Royals
Good lord does this team look awful. Billy Butler, Joakim Soria, and possibly Mike Aviles are the only exceptional players here. The Alex Gordon-Melky Cabrera-Jeff Francoeur outfield might be the weakest in baseball. Gordon’s probably in his last chance to prove he’s a worthy big leaguer. This team should approach 100 losses and they better pray their farm system (supposedly one of the best EVER) actually produces within a few years.

AL West

1. Texas Rangers
I can’t see why their lineup wouldn’t continue to put up huge numbers in that bandbox park in the smoldering Texas heat. One of the best lineups in baseball top to bottom. Not really a fan of their rotation especially with no more Cliff Lee to rely on. However, their bullpen looks pretty lethal with Rhodes, Oliver, and O’Day all being quality arms and, of course, Feliz back as the closer. I think they’ll slug their way to the AL West crown.

2. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
The Angels should have a really quality rotation with Weaver, Haren, and Santana. Their pen is also improved with Downs and Takahashi, although I’m not a big Fernando Rodney fan. Lineup should be decent although Morales is coming back from a huge injury and there are a lot of aging veterans in the outfield. Look for Mike Trout by September. They should improve on last year’s campaign but are not quite ready for a playoff return yet.

3. Oakland Athletics
So much quality young pitching here, Beane did a great job piecing that together. Bailey’s starting on the DL but hopefully won’t be there for long. If they had an extra good bat I’d probably have them as my division winners. As such, I’m picking them for 3rd although finishing over .500 is very possible. This is a team I think can be a big-time contender in 2011 so long as their pitching staff builds on last year.

4. Seattle Mariners
It rains a lot in Seattle, so maybe they’ll get enough rain for Felix to make 50 starts. They’ll get a ton of trade offers for him but for their sake I hope they hold onto him because him and Ichiro are the only reason to head out to the park this year. They are likely a few years away from competing – hard to believe at this time last year many had them pegged to win the West. Kinda like the Astros, Pirates, Indians, and Royals – it’s gonna be a long year for these guys.

Awards

NL MVP: Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals
NL Cy Young: Roy Halladay, Philadelphia Phillies
NL Rookie of the Year: Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves
NL Comeback Player of the Year: Pablo Sandoval, San Francisco Giants
NL Manager of the Year: Jim Tracy, Colorado Rockies

AL MVP: Adrian Gonzalez, Boston Red Sox
AL Cy Young: Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners
AL Rookie of the Year: Jeremy Hellickson, Tampa Bay Rays
AL Comeback Player of the Year: Joe Nathan, Minnesota Twins
AL Manager of the Year: Ron Washington, Texas Rangers

Playoffs

Division Series
-Phillies over Giants in 4
-Reds over Rockies in 5
-Yankees over Rangers in 5
-Red Sox over Twins in 3

Championship Series
-Phillies over Reds in 6 (MVP: Cliff Lee)
-Yankees over Red Sox in 7 (MVP: Alex Rodriguez)

World Series
-Phillies over Yankees in 6 (MVP: Roy Halladay)</font>