NFL Draft Question..
 

Ok, so there are a couple of shitty teams that all could have a top three pick.. I'm wondering how it pans out if they all end up 3-13..

Texans 2-12
Green Bay 3-12
Niners 3-12
Jets 3-12
Saints 3-12

HUGE chance of that happening due to the Texans playing San Fran this week.. I'm just wondering how they decide who gets what pick.. Confrence record?? Tie breakers (like in the playoffs, when one team has beaten another and they both end up with the same record)?? Combination??

http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakers

Here's how it stands of now, of course this will change after the week #17 games.

http://www.ourlads.com/DraftSequence.html

So, who had the harder schedule..

That's be us due to having to play Carolina, Tampa Bay, and ATL twice..

I'd guess..

YUS

So no matter how the others fair, if we lose, we still get one of the top two..

Hello, Matt Leinart..

Oh and GO TAMPA BAY!!1!

:shifty:

:(

Who Dat??

Umm, no.

You faced 16 other teams this year, just like everyone else.

Let's say (I'm using unrealistic math to make it easy), The Saints lose and the Texans win. Now, they're tied.

Let's also say neither team played the same team.

Now, let's say the teams that Houston played this year go 0-16 and the teams that New Orleans played go 16-0, then Houston would move ahead of NO.

So yeah, it's pretty much a crap shoot, you'll be in the top5 for sure.

Without doing all the math I'd expect you to be no worst then top 3, assuming the saints lose, if they win you "could" fall as far as 7th.

There is no possible situation where you could go worse then 7th.

As I understand it, the Texans beating the Niners is the only thing that could help us.. We are in the number two spot as of week 16.. If we lose week 17, regaurdless of what the other 4 teams in the bottom five do, we will still be in the top two..

Reggie Bush will go first..

As for the Saints, even dropping down to the 3-4 or even 5-6 range I wouldn't be shocked to see you get Leinhart or Vince Young (assuming he comes out).

Let's look at the top 7 teams and "needs"

Houston - Sure, who wouldn't want Reggie Bush, but what would be better? Reggie Bush making Dominick Davis a backup or trade bait, or dealing down a pick or two, and getting say Ferguson the OT from VT? which improves your running and passing game? Honestly, if Houston gets the #1, I'd be shocked if they don't trade down.

New Orleans - QB nuff said, there are other "holes" but are any bigger then this, Brooks seemed to have the tools, but I can't think of many a QB that has worse decision making then him.

Green Bay - They have their QB of the "future" and you'd expect Green to be back, there isn't a WR worth a top 7 this year, I'd bet a pass rushing DE or DT.

NY Jets - Ugh, talk about a team with holes... Will Pennington ever stay healthy? Does Curtis have another year? is blaylock ready? Nothing would really suprise me here, If they can get their hands on Feguson I think they grab him, otherwise Defense, I've seen OLB AJ hawk talked about. Also wouldn't be suprised to see a trade down for more picks.

SF - If Bush is gone, I'd see them trying to grab Ferguson, or if they end up #2 with Houston #1 I'd say a trade, if SF is #3 or more, and Houston is #1 I can see Houston taking Bush and waiting to see if Ferguson slips to SF and then pulling a trade.

Tennesee - They have some holes on Defense, but they're 3 teams in the top 7 that could legitimately spend their top pick on a QB, McNair insn't getting any younger and I don't think Volek is the answer, also wouldn't be shocked to see them trade down and fill multiple holes.

Oakland - Now here's a wild card, with an Oakland loss and a few things going right, they have a chance to have a top 3 pick. Does Kerry Collins get another chance? Would Leinhart like to stay in California? Would Randy Moss like to have a gunn like Young throwing to him? Does Al Davis go googoo over Reggie Bush? or more pressing needs like Defense? Who knows, they're a complete wildcard, I honestly don't know where to begin with them, maybe one of the AFC West fans would have some better info.

you're not understanding strength of schedule. Unless everyone is playing a team they have already played in which case then the "strength of schedule" is allready calculated. Since if you play a team twice it doesn't count 2x in SOS.

ex:

Indy goes 14-2.

You play indy twice.

They only count on the SOS as 14-2 not 28-4.

hold on, hold on

Ok, I have way too much free time tonight... so I just took a look.

NO, GB, NYJ & Tenn S.O.S will not change, they're all playing teams they already played.

Hou plays SF.

If Hou wins and No loses, NO gets the #1 pick because there is no way that with the same record NO would have a better SOS then any team they'd be tied with.

Oakland is the only other team playing "someone new". The best they can do is "if" they lose and
and SF wins and Tennesee wins is move up to 5th, it's not possible (w/o a trade) for them to go any higher then 5th.

of course there's a real good chance my math may be way off on this!

So what I'm saying in short is, you're right if NO loses they get at least the #2, possible the #1.


For the #1 pick.

Houston - needs to lose. Can't get worse the 4th
NO - needs to lose and a Houston Win. Can't get worse then 6th.
GB - needs to lose and a Houston and NO win. Can't get worse then 6th.
NYJ - needs to lose and Houston, NO & GB win. Can't get worse then 6th.

Misc
Oakland - with a loss and a Tenn win get ths 6th, they might be able to fall as far as 12th with a win, but I didn't look at the 5-10 teams to really know.

Tennesee - if they lose can go as high as #2 (needs NO, GB, NYJ & SF to win) They might also be able to drop as far as 12th, but again I didn't look at the 5-10 teams to know how far.

SF - If they lose, can go as high as #2 (needs, NO, GB, NYJ to win) They can't finish worse then 7th,


ok, my eyes hurt... goodnight.

Yer..

And as already discussed, I don't think any of the other team that could posibily get #1 will go after a QB..

Thanks for the info, you greasy virgin..

:kiss:

They need D. BAD.

Oakland needs help everywhere. But like Dave said, they probably need D more. Charles Woodson is a free agent and I doubt they bring him back. They need desperate help at linebacker too.

I don't think any team w/ the #1 takes a QB, even NO would probably grab bush and then trade down when they can still get a QB and some more picks.

Glad I could assist you thug wanna be, celebrity stalker! :kiss:

Oakland need to fix their pathetic LB, secondary, and OL before they even begin to think about drafting a QB. Collins does suck however, let Andrew Walter take over until they fix everything else.

If you don't have a QB you might as well trade Randy Moss.

You can fill those positions later in the draft, your chances of grabing good Defense later in the draft (even "early" round #2-3) is better then grabbing a good QB late in the draft (Brady being an exception :) )

Defense is a big need, but if Oakland has a shot at one of those two QB's (assuming Vince Young comes out, which seems to be 50/50) you gotta take'em.

They have one of the best WR's in the league and one of the best Pass Catching RB's in the league, they need a QB to lead the offense...

Didn't Vince Young already say he was staying at Texas?

Yeah, but he can still change his mind, I mean, if they win next week and he's got a national championship under hsi belt he could come out.

Another year could make him a top 3 pick rather then top 10-15, but he could also lower his value or blow out his knee etc...

Truthfully win or lose I think him staying is a stupid decision.. True he might want a championship or a Heisman, but at the same time he could get hurt and not have career.. If he goes to the NFL, he'll get a garanteed contract and if hurt later on he could always go finish school..

Well I am sure hes probably got that insurance policy everyone gets, plus he would really benefit from another year at college. Then again, he could sit on the bench next season and still learn while getting paid so who knows what he will do.

I think if the Saints get the #1 pick, they will trade with who ever is #2 for more picks, threating to trade with #3 if #2 doesn't take it. Thurfore #2 would lose out on Bush. Then take Leinhart, I kinda hope the Saints get the #1 pick now to make it more interesting.

It's funny about McGahee. He was no where near ready as his agent made him seem, his agent did a song in dance and basiclly tricked the bills into taking him, the whole "Bill Belicheck's been here to scout him" crap.

It worked out, he's become a good NFL rusher, but I wonder how another guy in that situation would do...

I agree, take the money, you can always go back to school. It's 1yr we're talking about, it's not like it's the NBA where we have all these 18yr olds coming to play.

Yeah, but I'm sure you remember that National Championship game where McGahee blew out his knee..

Think if the happened to Young in the first game of the season..

Vince Young the wide receiver right? Even though he's never played the position.

They need anything they can get

O_o

Just thought that was interesting..

was more interesting when I posted the info for you a few days ago :p

He simplified it..

Hello, Mr. Leinart..

san fran couldn't afford to pick #1 cause they would be back in salary cap hell with bush and Smith. Houston should trade down the #1 and stockpile picks in the first two round ALA hershel walker and the cowboys and San diego and micheal vick.

My Mock:

HOLY FUCK LINEBACKERS OWN THIS DRAFT!!!!!

Texans - Trade it to the Jets for their first pick and Abraham.

*this is if Bush and Young declare

1. Jets - Reggie Bush, RB, USC
2. Saints - Matt Leinart, QB, USC
3. Titans - Mario Williams, DE, NC ST
4. Texans - D'Brickashaw Ferguson, T, VA
5. Packers - AJ Hawk, LB, Ohio St.
6. 49ers - Jimmy Williams, CB, VA Tech
7. Raiders - Haloti Ngata, DT, Oregon
8. Rams - Michael Huff, S, Texas
9. Bills - Mathias Kiwanuka, DE, Boston College
10. Cardinals - Vince Young, QB, Texas
11. Lions - Eric Winston, T, Miami
12. Browns - Chad Greenway, LB, Iowa
13. Ravens - DeMeco Ryans, LB, Alabama
14. Eagles - Daryn Colledge, T, Boise State
15. Falcons - Ko Simpson, S, South Carolina
16. Dolphins - Jay Cutler, QB, Vanderbilt
17. Vikings - DeAngelo Williams, RB, Memphis
18. Chargers - LaRon Landy, S, LSU
19. Patriots - Ahmad Brooks, LB, Virginia
20. Chiefs - Santonio Holmes, WR, Ohio State
21. Cowboys - Marcus McNeill, T, Auburn
22. Broncos - Derek Hagan, WR, Arizona State
23. Buccaneers - Jon Scott, T, Texas
24. Panthers - Rodrique Wright DT, Texas
25. Bears - Vernon Davis, TE, Maryland
26. Bengals - Darnell Bing, S, USC
27. Steelers - LenDale White, RB, USC
28. Giants - D'Quell Jackson, LB, Maryland
29. Jaguars - Tye Hill, CB, Clemson
30. Seahawks - Thomas Howard, LB, UTEP
31. Broncos - Tamba Hali, DE, Penn State
32. Colts - Abdul Hodge, LB, Iowa

I can't believe I don't have Pope and Lewis (amazing, probably first round TE's) going in the first round.

This was tough, and I imagine there will be many, many drafts (probably involving Rivers, Volek, Schaub).

prob.

trade 4th pick and Abraham for Bush. Doubt it

I don't think you'll ever see another Hershel walker type trade or Rickey Williams for that matter.

As for the Vick deal, SD never originally wanted to trade that pick, they wanted Vick but couldn't reach an agreement and rather then chancing he'd hold out, they made the deal.

They got #5 of the 1st round, #5 of the 3rd round, a 2nd round pick in 2002 (turned out to be #16) and Tim Dwight.

I could see something in that range for a team that wants Reggie Bush, maybe a two 1st round pick type deal or a 1 and multiple mid/late picks...

I just think too many teams are gun shy about dealing away the future for 1 player who hasn't played an NFL down yet, unless it's a team that really feels it's close and this would "put them over".

and SF would be able to do it, if they wanted to, you can have 2-3 top stars with big deals, it's all how you structure them and more importantly the signing bonus. From a quick search it looks like they were 3-5mil under the cap in 2005 and the talk is the cap will go up next year.

SF is in a LOT better shape then they were a few years ago after Carmen Policy left.

The New York Jets probably think that way, they were only 1 missed field goal away from going to the AFC Championship last year.

what's a bigger need? a RB or a QB? Chad's good when healthy, but he's never healthy.

Then, if you say both, then that's 2 big holes.

Giving up a 1st rounder and Abraham would be a lot, especially in a league where defense wins... but who knows... crazy things happen (See: Rickey Williams deal).

True, they are going to have to decide on Chad. If they think the team has a chance to win now, I see them going running back. A RB doesn't last as long in the NFL as a QB (usually) but a RB can instantly help a team, where as I don't see a QB (not even Lienhart) helping a team right away.

Maybe they could trade their pro bowl center and their 1st round pick to the Texans? Texans are kinda dumb if they take Bush IMO - They already have a running back, and why do they need another one if nobody will block for him.

if they trade down, they'll probably got for the OT from Virigina Tech, I admit, I don't follow college that closely, but everyone I've heard talk is saying this guy can be a top 3 pick and a career pro-bowl OT.

Yea it'll be interesting to see what Houston does. They don't need Bush ...BUT, would you pass on a guy who has Barry Sanders potential? How 'bout trading Davis for an extra pick and loading on o-lineman? The Texans can bounce around some ideas here...but they almost have to come away with a better offensive line in the end.