Steinbrenner will always choose big name FA over an up and coming talent in the minors. If someone of Gagne's stature is a FA when Rivera retires you can bet George will overpay for him. He doesn't care about trading a Cox-type, he's done it before and will do it again.
I agree with your assessment of the closer-drafting trend, but I don't think it applies to the Yankees. The Yankees will always look externally to fill up their most important positions through FA or trade, and if no one is available they will give Cox a shot.
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