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Mine will be, too. I did a search on IMDB to find where I can track down some of these movies, and a couple of them aren't even playing in my state (Michigan)! For example, I'd have to go to Illinois for the nearest showing of Cache, and I'd have to go to MARYLAND to see Transamerica.
There isn't even a showing of Brokeback Mountain within an hour-and-a-half of me. I really hate being a film buff in a non-metropolitan area. The nearest arthouse theatres that I know of are at least a 90-minute drive one-way.
Best Picture
Brokeback Mountain
Crash
Good Night, and Good Luck
Munich
Walk The Line
Winner - Brokeback Mountain. It's the best-reviewed movie of the year by far, and the Academy loves tragic love stories.
Best Director
George Clooney (Good Night, and Good Luck)
Peter Jackson (King Kong)
Ang Lee (Brokeback Mountain)
Fernando Meirelles (The Constant Gardener)
Steven Spielberg (Munich)
Winner - Fernando Meirelles. This one is really up in the air, imo. I don't think it'll go to Jackson or Spielberg, with the Academy assuming that they'll be back year after year. I doubt Lee will win, simply because awards-show sweeps are boring, and it's likely to clean up in the acting categories as well as Best Picture. Went with Meirelles over Clooney, because there's always one major category where the vast majority of the viewers say "WHO?"
Best Actor
Philip Seymour Hoffman (Capote)
Heath Ledger (Brokeback Mountain)
Viggo Mortensen (A History of Violence)
Joaquin Phoenix (Walk The Line)
David Straithairn (Good Night, and Good Luck)
Winner - Heath Ledger. The most acclaimed performance of the year deserves the Best Actor win. Simple as that.
Best Actress
Judi Dench (Mrs. Henderson Presents)
Felicity Huffman (Transamerica)
Keira Knightley (Pride & Prejudice)
Charlize Theron (North Country)
Reese Witherspoon (Walk The Line)
Winner - Felicity Huffman. Sort of a bizarre pick, but I think that her role in Transamerica is the right mix of quirky and sad. Plus, she's so phenomenally talented that she's bound to get one sometime. Why not this year?
Best Supporting Actor
George Clooney (Syriana)
Matt Dillon (Crash)
Paul Giamatti (Cinderella Man)
Jake Gyllenhaal (Brokeback Mountain)
Terrence Howard (Crash)
Winner - Paul Giamatti. Honestly, anyone could win this one, but I think the Academy will want to make up for snubbing him for American Splendor and Sideways.
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams (Junebug)
Catherine Keener (Capote)
Thandie Newton (Crash)
Rachel Weisz (The Constant Gardener)
Michelle Williams (Brokeback Mountain)
Winner - Michelle Williams. Haven't seen the movie yet, but I hear her performance is excellent. And, like I said before, Brokeback is going to dominate these awards, so she'll pick up the win. Adams could be a dark horse pick, but I don't think enough people have heard of her or the movie to warrant more than a nomination.
Best Original Screenplay
Cache (Michael Haneke)
Crash (Paul Haggis and Bobby Moresco)
Good Night, and Good Luck (George Clooney and Grant Heslov)
Match Point (Woody Allen)
The Squid and the Whale (Noah Baumbach)
Winner - Crash. The most intricate script of the year successfully juggles so many different interlocking stories. I think Crash is this year's Mystic River, in that it could very well be a Best Picture winner, but it's up against a huge juggernaut of an opponent.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Brokeback Mountain (Larry McMurtry and Diana Ossana)
Capote (Dan Futterman)
Munich (Tony Kushner and Eric Roth)
Syriana (Stephen Gaghan)
Walk The Line (James Mangold and Gill Dennis)
Winner - Brokeback Mountain. This started as an 11-page short story, and McMurtry and Ossana turned it into an epic. That's pretty much the definition of adaptation.
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