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I really don't see either of them with the belt. They're good talents, and Carlito can actually go in the ring, but neither of them are top enough to headline a PPV.
John Cena vs. Chris Masters for the WWE Championship? No.
John Cena vs. Carlito for the WWE Championship? No.
Maybe on an episode of RAW, but definitely not at an event where people are paying $35 to see it. They just haven't been able to look dominant enough in a respectable or believable manner. Masters' "Masterlock Challenge" was a good way to start, but eventually it came down to him either choking out a jobber or over-the-hill star, or using it as build-up for another angle (HBK and Cena are good examples).
Carlito really hasn't been given anything spectacular to do since taking the IC Title off of Shelton Benjamin. Plus, I really can't see a WWE Champion with that afro in this day and age.
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