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**BCWWF** · 09-09-2006, 10:47 AM

By Rob Neyer
ESPN Insider
Archive

For much of the season, even as the Yankees were thriving despite the losses of Hideki Matsui and Gary Sheffield, radio hosts were telling me the Yanks would be in trouble come October, because they simply don't have good enough pitching. Well, they still have the same pitching -- Cory Lidle notwithstanding -- which got me to wondering just how good (or not) their pitching really is. Here are composite stats of each playoff contenders' top three starters (who will get the vast majority of the innings in October) ...

IP BR/9 ERA
Twins 483 10.2 3.21
Tigers 528 11.3 3.75
Athletics 513 13.0 4.02
Yankees 554 10.9 4.06
ChiSox 541 11.9 4.39
The Twins look really good, thanks to Johan Santana and Francisco Liriano (and no thanks to Brad Radke). Obviously, we don't know if Liriano's going to be healthy enough to pitch in October. But if Liriano's not healthy, 1) the Twins probably won't make the playoffs, and b) if they do, Carlos Silva probably would go into the rotation, jumping the Big Three's ERA to 4.35, just fourth-best in the group. Granted, in the first round Santana would start twice … but eventually, if a team escapes the first round, its No. 3 guy is going to get his innings.
The Tigers, as you would guess, also fare well. But 1) their pitchers benefit from their ballpark, and 2) we still might reasonably wonder if Justin Verlander can hold up for seven months. I'm generally optimistic about young pitchers in October, as I've found no evidence that experience means beans in the postseason. But by season's end Verlander will be pushing 200 innings, and he's never come close to that sort of workload in his life.
Next come Oakland's Barry Zito, Danny Haren, and Esteban Loaiza. (Why Loaiza rather than Joe Blanton? Because Loaiza's ERA since the All-Star break is 3.10.) They're good, and would be even better with a healthy Rich Harden, who's supposedly coming along nicely and might be back in the rotation come October.
Then come the Yankees, and finally the White Sox. A year ago, White Sox starters posted the second-lowest ERA (3.75) in the American League, then breezed through October. This year they're seventh in the league, and behind the other postseason contenders.
I'm not going to argue in favor of the Yankees having the best starters in the postseason. They might, but they probably won't. Randy Johnson's been spotty this season, Mike Mussina's recovering from a (supposedly) slight injury, and Chien-Ming Wang is still proving to all of us that he can be highly successful without throwing the ball past anybody. But things are tough all over. Nobody's got Maddux-Glavine-Smoltz or Hudson-Mulder-Zito. Not this year.
And anyway, how many World Series did those two trios win, anyway? (That's a rhetorical question, of course; I know the answer is "one.") We've made some strides since I started doing this sort of thing, roughly 10 years ago. I have a pile of clippings on my desk, stuff I've been saving just this summer, and I'm amazed to see the extent to which sabermetrics have infiltrated the mass media. And then you read something like this, courtesy of Jeromy Burnitz and the Chicago Tribune: "But the facts say that at every level it's pitching first, then defense and then timely hitting."
Actually, the facts say that pitching and defense, taken together, are almost precisely as important as hitting (forget about timeliness). At every level, or at least every professional level. Sure, Jeromy Burnitz is just one man. But I suspect if you watched every game on TV, you'd hear this drivel at least once every day.
Pitching's a wonderful thing, and so is hitting. The Yankees, who play half their games in a pitcher's park, have scored more runs in road games than any other team in the league, and by a pretty hefty margin. Obviously, they can be beaten in October, just as they've been beaten in every October since 2000. But their pitching is just about as good as anybody's, and their hitting is better than everybody's.

• A number of kind people have sent me to this incredible Web site, and now I'm sending you (if you choose to go). I don't have anything of my own to add. Just go play around for a few minutes, and tell me if you're not impressed at least a little.
• Something else I've got piled on my desk: clippings of articles and columns written before the season, predicting that MLB's new amphetamines policy would result in noticeably decreased offensive production and, as a consequence, noticeably decreased attendance (here's one memorable example, but just one of many). Still waiting to read the retractions.
• Everybody wants to know if the Tigers are going to blow their lead. They probably will not. And if they do, it probably will not matter. Because even if they play poorly down the stretch, it will matter only if both the Twins and the White Sox play particularly well. Not likely. According to this page the Tigers still have roughly a 98-percent chance of making the playoffs, one way or the other.
• In fact, we probably already know, on Sept. 8, seven of the eight playoff teams. The National League East is decided, the Central is close, and the Dodgers and Padres are in great shape for the other two slots. Our best hopes for drama involve the Twins and White Sox and their season-ending series, and the Ryan Howard-led Phillies putting some pressure on whoever's running second in the NL West. Oh, and it looks like no pitcher in the National League is going to win 20 games, which hasn't happened in a full season since 1987, when Rick Sutcliffe led the NL with 18 wins. That's not dramatic, really. Moderately interesting, though (and the pundits will try to figure out what's different this year, even if nothing is).
• I thought the Indians were going to win the American League Central this season. Instead, they're in fourth place, with the 10th-best record in a 14-team league. They also have the fifth-best run differential in the league. You might think the Indians are bad and I was wrong. I prefer to think the Indians are unlucky and I was (mostly) right. And I'm picking them again next spring.
Senior writer Rob Neyer writes for Insider three times most weeks during the season. You can reach him via rob.neyer@dig.com, and his new book, "Rob Neyer's Big Book of Baseball Blunders," is available everywhere.

-------------------

Does anybody else fail to see his argument here? Mark Buehrle, Jose Contreras, Jon Garland, Freddie Garcia and Javier Vazquez might not be having career years, but I would take them over Randy Johnson, Mike Mussina, Corey Lidle, Chin Ming Wang and whoever the last guy is any day of the week. I would say the Tiger's have a somewhat suspect pitching staff right now, but I would not say the Yankee's pitching staff is on par with the Twins, A's or even the White Sox come playoff time, and I am going to go out on a limb and say it won't be on par with the Tigers either.

09-09-2006, 10:47 AM	#3003
BCWWF The People's Member Posts: 18,092	By Rob Neyer ESPN Insider Archive For much of the season, even as the Yankees were thriving despite the losses of Hideki Matsui and Gary Sheffield, radio hosts were telling me the Yanks would be in trouble come October, because they simply don't have good enough pitching. Well, they still have the same pitching -- Cory Lidle notwithstanding -- which got me to wondering just how good (or not) their pitching really is. Here are composite stats of each playoff contenders' top three starters (who will get the vast majority of the innings in October) ... IP BR/9 ERA Twins 483 10.2 3.21 Tigers 528 11.3 3.75 Athletics 513 13.0 4.02 Yankees 554 10.9 4.06 ChiSox 541 11.9 4.39 The Twins look really good, thanks to Johan Santana and Francisco Liriano (and no thanks to Brad Radke). Obviously, we don't know if Liriano's going to be healthy enough to pitch in October. But if Liriano's not healthy, 1) the Twins probably won't make the playoffs, and b) if they do, Carlos Silva probably would go into the rotation, jumping the Big Three's ERA to 4.35, just fourth-best in the group. Granted, in the first round Santana would start twice … but eventually, if a team escapes the first round, its No. 3 guy is going to get his innings. The Tigers, as you would guess, also fare well. But 1) their pitchers benefit from their ballpark, and 2) we still might reasonably wonder if Justin Verlander can hold up for seven months. I'm generally optimistic about young pitchers in October, as I've found no evidence that experience means beans in the postseason. But by season's end Verlander will be pushing 200 innings, and he's never come close to that sort of workload in his life. Next come Oakland's Barry Zito, Danny Haren, and Esteban Loaiza. (Why Loaiza rather than Joe Blanton? Because Loaiza's ERA since the All-Star break is 3.10.) They're good, and would be even better with a healthy Rich Harden, who's supposedly coming along nicely and might be back in the rotation come October. Then come the Yankees, and finally the White Sox. A year ago, White Sox starters posted the second-lowest ERA (3.75) in the American League, then breezed through October. This year they're seventh in the league, and behind the other postseason contenders. I'm not going to argue in favor of the Yankees having the best starters in the postseason. They might, but they probably won't. Randy Johnson's been spotty this season, Mike Mussina's recovering from a (supposedly) slight injury, and Chien-Ming Wang is still proving to all of us that he can be highly successful without throwing the ball past anybody. But things are tough all over. Nobody's got Maddux-Glavine-Smoltz or Hudson-Mulder-Zito. Not this year. And anyway, how many World Series did those two trios win, anyway? (That's a rhetorical question, of course; I know the answer is "one.") We've made some strides since I started doing this sort of thing, roughly 10 years ago. I have a pile of clippings on my desk, stuff I've been saving just this summer, and I'm amazed to see the extent to which sabermetrics have infiltrated the mass media. And then you read something like this, courtesy of Jeromy Burnitz and the Chicago Tribune: "But the facts say that at every level it's pitching first, then defense and then timely hitting." Actually, the facts say that pitching and defense, taken together, are almost precisely as important as hitting (forget about timeliness). At every level, or at least every professional level. Sure, Jeromy Burnitz is just one man. But I suspect if you watched every game on TV, you'd hear this drivel at least once every day. Pitching's a wonderful thing, and so is hitting. The Yankees, who play half their games in a pitcher's park, have scored more runs in road games than any other team in the league, and by a pretty hefty margin. Obviously, they can be beaten in October, just as they've been beaten in every October since 2000. But their pitching is just about as good as anybody's, and their hitting is better than everybody's. • A number of kind people have sent me to this incredible Web site, and now I'm sending you (if you choose to go). I don't have anything of my own to add. Just go play around for a few minutes, and tell me if you're not impressed at least a little. • Something else I've got piled on my desk: clippings of articles and columns written before the season, predicting that MLB's new amphetamines policy would result in noticeably decreased offensive production and, as a consequence, noticeably decreased attendance (here's one memorable example, but just one of many). Still waiting to read the retractions. • Everybody wants to know if the Tigers are going to blow their lead. They probably will not. And if they do, it probably will not matter. Because even if they play poorly down the stretch, it will matter only if both the Twins and the White Sox play particularly well. Not likely. According to this page the Tigers still have roughly a 98-percent chance of making the playoffs, one way or the other. • In fact, we probably already know, on Sept. 8, seven of the eight playoff teams. The National League East is decided, the Central is close, and the Dodgers and Padres are in great shape for the other two slots. Our best hopes for drama involve the Twins and White Sox and their season-ending series, and the Ryan Howard-led Phillies putting some pressure on whoever's running second in the NL West. Oh, and it looks like no pitcher in the National League is going to win 20 games, which hasn't happened in a full season since 1987, when Rick Sutcliffe led the NL with 18 wins. That's not dramatic, really. Moderately interesting, though (and the pundits will try to figure out what's different this year, even if nothing is). • I thought the Indians were going to win the American League Central this season. Instead, they're in fourth place, with the 10th-best record in a 14-team league. They also have the fifth-best run differential in the league. You might think the Indians are bad and I was wrong. I prefer to think the Indians are unlucky and I was (mostly) right. And I'm picking them again next spring. Senior writer Rob Neyer writes for Insider three times most weeks during the season. You can reach him via rob.neyer@dig.com, and his new book, "Rob Neyer's Big Book of Baseball Blunders," is available everywhere. ------------------- Does anybody else fail to see his argument here? Mark Buehrle, Jose Contreras, Jon Garland, Freddie Garcia and Javier Vazquez might not be having career years, but I would take them over Randy Johnson, Mike Mussina, Corey Lidle, Chin Ming Wang and whoever the last guy is any day of the week. I would say the Tiger's have a somewhat suspect pitching staff right now, but I would not say the Yankee's pitching staff is on par with the Twins, A's or even the White Sox come playoff time, and I am going to go out on a limb and say it won't be on par with the Tigers either.