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I think (I don't know for sure) that the passing on of the UEFA spot only happens if the winner is already involved in europe next season and the loser isn't. If it was a Man U - Arsenal final then the spot would either go to a league spot (probably 6th) or be forfeit.
If Sunderland get to the final and lose against Man U or Arsenal then yeah they'll go into the UEFA next season...same thing happened to Southampton last season.
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