[loopydate]

I meant to post my annual nominee-speculation thread, but this year is flying by and I never got a chance.

So, anyway, here are my predictions for the big categories.

Best Picture - "The Departed"

Before the nominees were announced, I thought this would be a toss-up between "The Departed" and "Dreamgirls." But with "Dreamgirls" getting snubbed, this category gets a whole lot easier to call. "Babel" has an outside shot after getting the Golden Globe, and "Iwo Jima" has a couple of critics' awards, but I'm fairly sure this one is going to "The Departed."

Best Actor - Forest Whitaker, "The Last King Of Scotland"

Whitaker's performance is probably the most talked-about of the year. O'Toole may get the sympathy vote, but he's still got that magic that makes him Peter O'Toole. Barring a tragedy, he'll get at least one more shot at this award. Whitaker gave the best performance this year, so he deserves the win.

Best Actress - Helen Mirren, "The Queen"

This is Helen Mirren's year. Two Golden Globes, the National Board of Review, the New York Film Critics Circle, the Los Angeles Film Critics Association, the National Society of Film Critics, the Chicago Film Critics Association... EVERYONE is giving this award to Helen Mirren, and the Academy won't be any different.

Best Supporting Actor - Eddie Murphy, "Dreamgirls"

Personally, I was happy to see Wahlberg get the nomination over Nicholson. I love Jack, don't get me wrong, but we've seen that performance from him before. A pretty solid batch of nominees, but I think Murphy will win. Few things are more satisfying than a riches-to-rags-to-riches story, and Murphy's return from oblivion should win this.

Best Supporting Actress - Rinko Kikuchi, "Babel"
This one could really go to any of the nominees. I don't think Blanchett will win, since she just won two years ago. Breslin might take it, because she's young and adorable and the Academy likes to reward that (see: Oscar winner Anna Paquin). Hudson is probably the favorite, but I just don't think she'll win. It will go to one of the "Babel" actresses. I went with Kikuchi.

Best Director - Paul Greengrass, "United 93"

As awesome as a Scorsese victory would be, I just don't think it's ever going to happen. He did a phenomenal job on "The Departed," but I just don't think this was the movie that's going to win the award for him. I was surprised to see Bill Condon get left out, but in his absence, Greengrass picks up the Oscar for the most provocative movie of the year.

Best Foreign Language Film - "Pan's Labyrinth," Mexico

I was a little surprised to see "Pan" get the nomination instead of "Volver," but I'm glad it did. I haven't seen it yet, but everything I've heard about it makes it sound like it's the most visually fascinating movie of the year with some fantastic performances and effects. The only possible reason to snub it is that they tend to go with something less mainstream in this category.

Best Adapted Screenplay - Patrick Marber, "Notes On A Scandal"

As amazing as Cohen's acceptance speech would be, the Academy usually doesn't reward huge writing teams. So that knocks out "Borat" and "Children of Men." I was really disappointed to see that they left out Jason Reitman's amazing "Thank You For Smoking." Toss-up between "The Departed" and "Scandal," but I went with Marber's edgy script.

Best Original Screenplay - Michael Arndt, "Little Miss Sunshine"

Not bad for a first produced screenplay, no? Arndt managed to put together one of the most clever scripts of the year, and the fact that "Sunshine" wound up being a sleeper hit certainly won't hurt. Arriaga's got an outside shot, since the Academy likes stories that juggle multiple plotlines, but I'm going with Michael Arndt.

Best Animated Feature Film - "Cars"

This is a really strong set of nominees. Any one of them could conceivably win, but the Academy loves Pixar, and after all of the recent rumblings about dissention between Pixar and Disney, the fact that they managed to produce yet another CGI masterpiece is all the more impressive. Smart, funny, sad, wistful. Yep. This is a Pixar movie.