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I would put Ben's shock more on the fact that Keamy shot her on eight rather than giving him the entire count to formulate any kind of plan to save her. It's pretty clear from the way he goes over to her and cries that she is the only person on the island he loves.
What is the rest of the theory? I was under the impression that "if it didn't happen, it can't happen." So Keamy would have always shot Alex, and Ben would have never been able to stop it, unless somehow Desmond, the only one with any special power (according to Faraday) intervened.
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