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If The Miz cashes it in opportunistically, he should win. This would paint The Miz in the mold of heels like Edge and CM Punk. If the WWE wants him to be a heel of that colour, then he should cash in successfully like that -- preferably against someone people give a damn about. John Cena or Triple H would be the best options.
Otherwise, I personally would have The Miz announce his title shot ahead of time. They can chalk it up to arrogance, or him wanting to prove himself, or whatever -- but The Miz goes in as confirmed challenger, and then loses that match (the only way I can stomach the MITB winner losing), and it is used to give his character more gravity. But I'm not sure if I can trust the WWE to do that.
The Miz came off amazing at Money in the Bank. Snatching victory from the jaws of Randy Orton so decisively, and then cutting a promo about how we are all in his moment, and he's proven us all wrong? It reminded me of Stone Cold Steve Austin's promo after winning the 1996 King of the Ring, for some reason. If the WWE want to turn him into a project, and not something they rush to glory, then I'd have him lose, but only if he announces his title shot well before his match.
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