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500 HR doesn't mean a thing at this point. Fred McGriff isnt a HOF'er. Palmeiro is borderline. Hell, even Frank Thomas is considered boorderline, and he was doing things his first 7 years that only Babe Ruth and Jimmy Foxx had done before him.
Ken Griffey Jr needs at least 5 more productive years to be serious HOF material. I hope he does it, mainly because I have tons of his rookie cards.
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