I'm now thinking that Punk will retain, but I'm not sure exactly what will go down. To be honest, I think the best thing the WWE could do, in all honesty, is for Dolph Ziggler to cost Cena the match. This stuff with AJ/Vickie/Dolph/Cena needs some sort of resolution, and I can see that happening at TLC, with CM Punk facing Mick Foley in that hardcore match. It would establish Punk vs. Rock nicely.
As for Ryback? I'm not really sure the WWE have any long term plans for him. He'll probably go over someone like Alberto Del Rio at TLC, and keep beating people en route to an impressive Royal Rumble showing, where his Mania opponent makes himself apparent by eliminating Ryback.
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