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Originally Posted by BCWWF
Is Pujols anywhere near on track to get 700? I can't think of anybody else playing now that would have any chance.
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Okay, Arod has a great chance. Right now, he has 378 homers at the age of 29. If he plays till he's 40 like bonds, he only has to average 29.27 homers a season. Thats gonna be pretty easy for him, barring injury. Even if he only plays 9 or 10 more seasons, he still would only need around 35 a year.
Pujols started a little later than Arod, but he's still on a good pace. He has 158 homers at this point at age 24.(if he really is 24). If he plays 16 more seasons until he's 40, he'll need to average 33.875, which is also doable for him. He'll more likely average closer to 40 homers the next several years.
How bout Griffey? Its still possible. He's going to turn 35 this year and he'll have 501 homers. Of course, this all depends on him staying healthy, which we know is very difficult. If he can play 5 more years, he has to average 40 each year. He had 20 this year in only 83 games, so obviously, he hasn't lost his power. But its a question mark if he'll ever get there.
Sosa is also interesting cuz he's really dipped the last couple of years. He's gonna turn 34 this year, so its not like he's that old. He has 571 right now so if he plays till he's 40, he needs only 21.5 a year to get to 700. This year was an off year for him and he still got 32 homers. I say he's the safest bet for now outside of Arod.
Lastly, I'd like to mention Adrian Beltre. He's still only 25 years old. One year older than Pujols. Plus, he started playing at the age of 19 like Arod. He has 144 homers right now so he'll need 37 homers a season for the next 15 years to get to 700. Completely possible if this year wasn't a fluke.
I guess this shows that Bonds' feat is no easy task. Bonds has to be the best player today but of all time? Maybe best hitter... Remember Ruth pitched like a Randy Johnson too.