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Oh yeah, Chris Benoit will win. Because they are trying to make it look like he has no chance, hence hoping you will be suprised when he wins.
It's about time they made number 30 mean something though. Every year they make a big deal out of who gets to be 30, and yet number 30 has NEVER won the Royal Rumble as far as I can remember. So if Goldberg wins it would finally help establish 30 as a good number to be, unlike previous years where when they make someone the no. 30 entrant they are basically saying to everyone "this person won't win the Royal Rumble".
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