[Emperor Smeat]

The Sheets (Observer Newsletter Edition):

WWE’s second PPV show during the pandemic, Money in the Bank, takes place as both a live and taped show that will be released on 5/10. The show is built around another cinematic production, with the idea of two Money in the Bank matches that start at the same time ... The Money in the Bank match was actually taped the week of 4/13. Apollo Crews’ storyline was always planned for him to qualify but not compete in the match and with Styles returning ... Crews was giving off heel tendencies on last week’s Raw and it’s been speculated he will be part of a stable headed by MVP that would also include Brendan Vink & Shane Thorne. We’ve been given the impression that is one of several options considered for Crews but it is not necessarily the end direction ... The build up has been weak at a time when interest in the WWE product is at an all-time low due to the pandemic. At press time, only four other matches have been announced for the show and many of the feuds being pushed the hardest on television, such as Mandy Rose vs. Sonya Deville, are being designed for television rather than PPV matches ... Becky Lynch and Charlotte Flair are both not booked for the show, even though Flair appeared heavily in the advertising ... IC champion Sami Zayn had not agreed to return to work at last word. The Street Profits vs. Viking Raiders for the Raw tag titles were not listed at press time and were probably being saved for television, although they almost have to add a few matches. Similarly, Andrade, the U.S. champion is not listed. Smackdown could add a Jeff Hardy vs. Sheamus match at the last minute but that was not etched in stone. They are advertising that Lynch will confront the briefcase winner on Raw on 5/11. That would seem to tease a win from the Raw side, and with Asuka already having had a program with Lynch, would seem to make Baszler and Jax as the favorites.

A few quick notes regarding the weekly rating declines over the past two months. The last week before COVID-19 and the news took over from entertainment would have been the week of 2/28 to 3/4, but because Smackdown had an inflated number that week due to it being a heavily publicized return of John Cena, and AEW had an inflated number coming off the PPV show, we’ll use 2/21 to 2/26 as our last comparison week. We are comparing the declines to this past week, which would be shows 4/29 to 5/4. Using that model here are the declines: * Raw dropped 25.1 percent in viewers and 35.2 percent in 18-49 * Dynamite dropped 19.9 percent in viewers and 10.0 percent in 18-49 * NXT dropped 11.2 percent in viewers and 30.4 percent in 18-49 * Smackdown dropped 24.1 percent in viewers and 28.6 percent in 18-49 Now you can make things worse because if you go with the next week, which is the last actual week before news changed everything, this is the declines: * Raw dropped 25.4 percent in viewers and 37.8 percent in 18-49 * Dynamite dropped 23.5 percent in viewers and 22.9 percent in 18-49 * NXT dropped 11.3 percent in viewers and 30.4 percent in 18-49 * Smackdown dropped 29.8 percent in viewers and 37.5 percent in 18-49 As far as what conclusions one wants to draw from this ... NXT’s 18-49 drop was huge but overall was not, because the most loyal audience to all shows has been 50 plus, people who are set in their ways and even though that demo watches the news more, it appears that demo is the most loyal to wrestling. NXT, with the oldest overall audience (55), had big losses in the key demo but overall with its oldest audience, in total numbers felt less of a sting than any other show. AEW, the youngest skewing (42) has held up better in 18-49. That’s probably due in part to being the only show of the promotion for the week, and also due to it being easily the strongest from a creative standpoint. Plus, with wrestlers in the crowd, they do have the better atmosphere than WWE. Raw and Smackdown (50) are both down substantially by percentage. They also draw the most mainstream fans meaning their audience may not be as loyal overall. Ironically as the two oldest shows, their audience should be the most loyal, particularly Raw which has been on the same night now for more than 27 years. Even with the big drops, both key shows are still far head of AEW in total viewers and 18-49. Even now, the 18-49 numbers for Raw and Smackdown are still both nearly double that of AEW.

Raw on 5/4 followed Smackdown with scary numbers, averaging 1,682,000 viewers, the lowest number in the history of the show, breaking the mark of 1,775,000 set on the Christmas Eve 2018 show ... The scariest stat is that if you go back exactly one year this week, you have a 39.5 percent drop in teenager viewing, 58.0 percent drop in 18-34 24.5 percent in 35-49 and 12.5 percent in 50 plus. Granted, that isn’t fair, but in these times, they are maintaining the 50 plus creatures of habit not too badly given all the issues with the dead shows. Raw did 1,807,000 viewers in the first hour, 1,691,000 viewers in the second hour and 1,546,000 viewers in the third hour. The first hour was the second lowest first hour in history behind the Christmas Eve 2018 show. The second and third hours were the lowest for their respective hours in history with the third hour breaking the all-time hourly low of 1,619,000 set the prior week

The 5/1 Smackdown show drew numbers that have to now be considered scary, with a 1.24 rating and 1,885,000 viewers (a very low 1.26 viewers per home), not just the lowest figure for the show since going to FOX, but 6.0 percent down from last week’s record low. Smackdown, even with the benefit of being on a network station, for its two hours is now for the first time did less viewers on FOX than the first two hours of Raw did on USA the previous Monday (but not the following Monday), which is available in about 25 million fewer homes ... FOX last year on the same night did 2,638,000 viewers and 0.5 in 18-49, so 18-49 was identical but viewers were down 28.5 percent.

For AEW vs. NXT on 4/29, AEW dominated every quarter in 18-49, while for overall, AEW won the first six quarters but the last two with Keith Lee vs. Damien Priest for the North American title vs. Dustin Rhodes vs. Lance Archer went close for NXT due to the huge advantage in over 50 viewers ... In the first quarter, AEW opened with 797,000 viewers, the high point for either company, and 354,000 in 18-49 for Cody vs. Darby Allin. NXT opened with 757,000 viewers but only 219,000 in 18-49 for Isaiah Scott vs. El Hijo del Fantasma. In the second quarter, AEW lost 67,000 viewers but stayed even in 18-49 with Cody vs. Allin’s finish. NXT lost 116,000 viewers and 11,000 in 18-49 for an Isaiah Scott interview, Dominik Dijakovic interview, the attempted kidnapping and Candice LeRae vs. Kacy Catanzaro. In the third quarter, AEW lost 62,000 viewers and 22,000 in 18-49 with the Scorpio Sky vignette, MJF interview and Wardlow squash win. NXT lost 36,000 viewers and 10,000 in 18-49 for a Damien Priest interview and The Newly Bro game with Fabian Aichner and Marcel Barthel attacking Matt Riddle and Timothy Thatcher. In the fourth quarter, AEW gained 68,000 viewers and 33,000 in 18-49 for the Bubbly Bunch vignette and Best Friends vs. Kip Sabian & Jimmy Havoc. NXT lost 16,000 viewers and 28,000 in 18-49 for an Adam Cole interview and Charlotte Flair vs. Mia Yim. This was the low point in 18-49 for NXT and just under the high point for AEW. In the fifth quarter, AEW lost 45,000 viewers but gained 1,000 in 18-49 for the ending of Best Friends vs. Havoc & Sabian, the Britt Baker vignette and a Shawn Spears squash. This was AEW’s high point of the night in 18-49. But while they peaked the 18-49, the segment that included Orange Cassidy (in limited amounts) and Penelope Ford lost viewers on the back end. NXT gained 48,000 viewers and 41,000 in 18-49 for the Charlotte Flair/Io Shirai confrontation and Dexter Lumis vs. Shane Thorne. In the sixth quarter, AEW lost 27,000 viewers and 6,000 in 18-49 for a Marko Stunt promo and Brodie Lee vs. Stunt, as well as the Jon Moxley promo. NXT lost 54,000 viewers and 11,000 in 18-49 for Tony Nese vs. Drake Maverick, the Maverick interview and a Lee promo. This segment was the low point for viewers for NXT with 583,000. In the seventh quarter, AEW lost 58,000 viewers and 23,000 in 18-49 for the beginning of Dustin Rhodes vs. Lance Archer. NXT gained 47,000 viewers and 14,000 in 18-49 for the for the end of Lee vs. Maverick and the beginning of Lee vs. Priest. NXT won the quarter 630,000 to 606,000, but lost 327,000 to 214,000 in 18-49. In the main event quarter, AEW gained 42,000 viewers and 16,000 in 18-49 for Rhodes vs. Archer. This ended with AEW with 648,000 viewers and 343,000 in 18-49. NXT gained 22,000 viewers and 12,000 in 18-49 for Lee vs. Priest, which saw their final quarter at 652,000 viewers and 226,000 in 18-49.

For 5/6, AEW did 732,000 viewers and a 0.28 in 18-49 while NXT did 663,000 viewers with a 0.18 in 18-49. If there was a major take, it’s that AEW, with head-to-head opposition by NXT and on an unfamiliar night, actually had more 18-34 male viewers than unopposed Raw on a familiar night did two nights earlier by a small margin, with an 83,000 to 82,000 edge ... The final quarter, with Jericho & Sammy Guevara vs. Omega & Hardy going against Cole vs. Dream, AEW has an 837,000 to 572,000 edge in viewers, and was more than double in 18-49 with a 399,000 to 188,000 edge. NXT’s viewer peak was the first quarter off the lead-in but its’ peak in 18-49 was Xia Li vs. Chelsea Green, the second straight time Green has pulled good numbers in that demo. NXT’s low point was the main event, which coincided with AEW’s high point being the main event across the board. AEW’s low point across the board was quarter three with all interviews ... AEW won seven of eight quarters, only losing the first because NXT had the big lead-in, but dominated in 18-49. AEW opened with 714,000 viewers and 389,000 in 18-49 for Cody vs. Joey Janela. NXT opened with 732,000 viewers and 239,000 in 18-49 for Johnny Gargano vs. Dominik Dijakovic. In the second quarter, AEW lost 7,000 viewers and 39,000 in 18-49 for the ending of Cody vs. Janela, a women’s video, a Nyla Rosa interview and Rose vs. McKenzie Paige. NXT lost 45,000 viewers and gained 24,000 in 18-49 for the end of Dijakovic vs. Gargano, an Imperium interview and Akira Tozawa vs. Jack Gallagher. In the third quarter, AEW lost 56,000 viewers and 41,000 in 18-49 with promos, and MJF taped promo, a Shawn Spears taped promo and MJF & Spears together on a promo. NXT gained 43,000 viewers and 22,000 in 18-49 for a Tozawa interview, Chelsea Green vs. Xia Li and a Velveteen Dream interview. In the fourth quarter, AEW gained 89,000 viewers and 39,000 in 18-49 for Jon Moxley vs. Frankie Kazarian. NXT lost 84,000 viewers and 52,000 in 18-49 for Karrion Kross vs. Leon Ruff, a package on Charlotte Flair vs. Io Shirai and a Matt Riddle & Timothy Thatcher interview. In the fifth quarter, AEW lost 3,000 viewers and gained 4,000 in 18-49 for the end of Moxley vs. Kazarian, the post-match beatdown of Moxley and a Brandi Rhodes promo. NXT gained 39,000 viewers and 9,000 in 18-49 for Flair vs. Shirai and the post-match. In the sixth quarter, AEW lost 36,000 viewers and 8,000 in 18-49 for Lance Archer vs. QT Marshall and the angle where Jake Roberts put the snake on Brandi Rhodes. NXT lost 37,000 viewers but only 2,000 in 18-49 for Shirai and Rhea Ripley post-match arguing and Kushida vs. Jake Atlas. In the seventh quarter, AEW gained 66,000 viewers and 17,000 in 18-49 for Taz with Darby Allin and the beginning of Chris Jericho & Sammy Guevara vs. Matt Hardy & Kenny Omega. NXT lost 42,000 viewers and 25,000 in 18-49 for a Finn Balor interview, Cameron Grimes vs. Denzel Dejournette and a Balor interview. In the final quarter, AEW gained 70,000 viewers and 38,000 in 18-49 for the rest of Jericho & Guevara vs. Hardy & Omega. NXT lost 34,000 viewers and 27,000 in 18-49 for Adam Cole vs. Velveteen Dream.

Another Reigns story got a lot of talk this week. On Raw on 5/4, they were airing Money in the Bank highlights, both wins and cash-ins and one of the ones listed was the WrestleMania in 2015 in Santa Clara where Rollins cashed in during the Reigns vs. Lesnar match. Well, it was edited to where Reigns never existed in the match. What is weirder is that Reigns was the one who was pinned and they showed the shot of Rollins using the curb stomp and went black and then showed him with the belt, giving the idea he pinned Lesnar. There isn’t a rule on erasing Reigns, only that commentators aren’t to mention his name. On 5/5, FS 1 did a one hour special on Reigns and on Smackdown a few weeks ago when they were showing the embarrassing HHH clips, they did show Reigns beating him at WrestleMania. We’re told the reaction by Vince McMahon regarding Reigns and how to handle the situation “changes daily based on which way the wind is blowing,” which is why one day they show him beating HHH on Smackdown, then they edited him off Raw, then they do a Make-a-Wish thing and have no clips of him, then they do an investment conference and Vince McMahon never says his name, and then they have a one hour special on him on FS 1.

Owens has been out of action since suffering an ankle injury during the match with Rollins at Mania. As of the weekend he didn’t know if it was a break or a bad sprain but the belief was that it’s not too serious and he would be back in action in a few weeks. That’s the main reason he hasn’t been around but also noted he was given the option not to do the tapings and right now wanted to spend time with his family. He doesn’t know the spot that he got hurt on. From what we’re told nothing hurt at WrestleMania but the day after his ankle was really swollen

Regarding the Otis/Rose storyline, and Andrea Listenberger, the writer who was released a few weeks ago and credited with it. A lot, perhaps most of the Otis stuff is from Vince McMahon who likes the character. Others have said that Listenberger’s role was in writing the promos, but was not the driving force in the storyline, but she was said to be a good writer. Others have said that there were people on the Smackdown creative team that could have gone to bat for her when the cuts came. Rose has said that she pitched the general idea of the storyline to Vince McMahon

New Japan Pro Wrestling, which has been of the mindset of not doing empty arena shows, is softening that stance and exploring the possibility. New Japan announced that in a release where they announced being shut down through at least early June, meaning no Best of the Super Juniors tournament, at least as originally scheduled ... The New Japan web site also no longer lists Dominion, which had been the company’s second biggest show of the year. It was originally scheduled for 6/14 at the Osaka Jo Hall. There was no word at press time as to the chances, if any, that the Super Junior tournament could take place later in the year. There was no decision made on the subject but the problems regarding doing so would be getting appropriate venues and issues with quarantining foreign stars and how long those restrictions would be in place.

The idea of live pro wrestling with fans in Chicago or the state of Illinois looks to be dead for a while. Gov. J.B. Pritzker announced this week that large events or conventions in the state won’t be allowed until there is a vaccine or a highly effective treatment is readily available, or new cases are eliminated for a significant period of time. That looks to mean that All Out, which they wanted to make a Labor Day tradition for the Sears Center, may be out this year

At the [AEW] tapings this week, they were doing both swab tests upon arrival in Jacksonville and then isolating everyone until the show was to start. They also ordered everyone in the building unless they were on camera to be masked. All of the tests taken as of 5/5 came out negative. AEW was the first company doing actual COVID tests as WWE was only taking the temperature of everyone involved at its tapings last week. That said, the usage of Jim Ross was higher on the risk side as well as Jake Roberts, and there just felt like way too many people backstage during the street fight that weren’t necessary to be there and in that instance they were in close quarters. The stuff with more people in the stands themselves wasn’t that bad when you consider it’s 5,000 seat outdoor building and people were kept a lot more than six feet apart. That was a lot safer than shopping at a grocery store except for those at ringside, and you’re not testing people going into the grocery store. There were wrestlers and staff in the front row at ringside that could have been farther apart