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I think you are right about those talent contracts. It was probably a little while ago now, but Cody cutting that promo about how AEW is the Ellis Island of professional wrestling is a bit cringe, considering they haven't signed anybody of note since Moxley, which was prior to their first PPV.
The concept of AEW got Moxley, Jericho and JR in, but the execution of it has seen every single other person sign with WWE. Except for Kris Statlander. No one else is going. I've seen a lot of excuses about AEW not being a sure-thing yet for the wrestlers, but we know how rich those Khans are. Their offers should be realistically big enough that you don't need Vince ever again. This should be a post-Vince McMahon world for professional wrestling. AJ Styles, Shinsuke Nakamura, Randy Orton, Brock Lesnar, Daniel Bryan, The Usos, Cain Velasquez, Rey Mysterio, CM fucking Punk -- they've also decided to sign with WWE in a world where they need something, even if it hadn't been named yet, was in the works.
And I blame their content. I really do. Either the top guys know they are going to have to work with the geeks at some point, or be nice to them on a show they are undermining. And that content is why people stopped watching or DVR this shit to cycle through. They've average about 800k viewers or whatever, and that's a lot less people to see you perform every week than logic would tell you pro-wrestling on basic cable with a billionaire backing it can get. There are fucking over 2 million people who sit through Raw each week.
TNT may or may not be happy with the numbers. I think there's a debate there. Some people just assume because it's better than what was in the slot and the demo is high, they must be happy. I think more market research would be needed to see if that representation of the demo are desired clientele, and whether AEW is actually selling those ad spots for a lot of money. But even if they are, they aren't exactly making new fans, they're starting to cool off, they're losing a lot of their goodwill (particularly because of the booking from Omega and The Bucks and their insecure responses to criticism), and that bottom could fall out.
NXT was always going to beat them. I was pretty sure of that from day one. Meltzer made all the bullshit claims about Vince taking it over. That didn't make sense. Vince knows this exists because of him and a response to WWE programming. I've heard people actually talk about NXT getting nervous and hot-shotting. Like, what? We still haven't gotten that Cole vs. Ciampa match they've been sitting on since like the third episode. AEW are the group that seem to be setting up about eight heel turns, have three brooding evil factions and for weeks were ending with brawls.
And you always new that NXT were so assured. And they can always call in a Rey Mysterio or a Daniel Bryan -- guys that AEW would kill to have. But they haven't needed to. They could even shock the world and make that the place for Ronda Rousey and/or John Cena if they do any work with WWE. Where is AEW going to draw its next Chris Jericho from? NXT is going to be beating them when it gets back into the swing of things, and AEW is going to panic more and more, pull the trigger on things to chase the feeling that the show is at least "interesting," and buildings are going to get emptier and emptier and PPVs are going to get harder and harder to sell.
And that is why talent isn't going. That is why anyone with an agent or anyone talking to experts, or listening to someone that isn't Dave Meltzer have been sketchy about it. It really is a vanity project run by a money-mark. And people in wrestling can sniff that wrestling stank.
Oh, and it's why New Japan have been hesitant to get into bed with them too. I'm pretty sure Tony would have thought he'd be able to make a big enough offer to get least one of those WWE names to jump (he seemed really cut about Orton). And having the big stars and the TNT exposure and Omega and The Bucks being "so great" and important to New Japan that would be crawling back. Nope.
He's also put these guys in executive positions when there is no history of them ever displaying they know the first thing about booking, or talent scouting or whatever. They either lied to get the positions, or they're stupid enough to genuinely think they are the best people for the job. But old Tones has been sold a bill of goods from a few directions I think, and it'll be interesting to see if that TV rights money ever comes in to justify those giant contracts for Jericho and Jim Ross.
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