[Emperor Smeat]

The Sheets (Observer Newsletter Edition):

This is not official but this falls into one of those things that has been confirmed by numerous people that dating back to 2/24, it has been talked about internally that NXT may move to Tuesdays in April, with the talked about switch being right after WrestleMania, with 4/13 the first Tuesday date. This has been discussed internally over the last week within WWE as well as NBC Universal. The only thing we could officially confirm is that it’s been something discussed at different times of late, more in recent weeks (after the decision to shutter NBC Sports Network and move key sports programming to USA) and was part of very significant discussions last week. Multiple people at WWE, when asked, have not commented or denied the story that the move is taking place. Others have confirmed talks of other moves in play that would seem to indicate NXT not being on Wednesday. Those who work in NXT, both talent and others, had not been informed of anything at the time the story broke. It’s notable because I’m not sure why you would start in Canada on a Wednesday just last week to start a wrestling war if you’re seriously thinking of moving that soon less than two months later. But it could be one deal being done before knowledge of the other thing having a shot at happening. Whether this is USA or WWE that is in front of these talks wouldn’t be known. The timing is such that what makes sense would be if USA is expecting to air hockey on Wednesdays starting next season or even in the latter stages of this season to get ready for next season, that move would make sense. From the day of NBC Sports Network closing the idea that USA would have Wednesday night hockey came immediately. It was just logical. The NHL doesn’t draw the viewership of NXT on a weekly basis, but draws much higher ad rates and as a real sport in a major league would be considered a priority. In addition, come playoff time, it would outdraw NXT. If this does happen, it’s good for NXT itself, as its audience will rise significantly, particularly in 18-49, which would be expected to rise to around the 300,000 to 325,000 viewers (0.25) level from the recent 150,000 to 235,000 range for normal Wednesday without a fluke occurrence due to not going head-to-head with wrestling competition that is strong in the key demo. The negative is that it helps AEW, which a key reason why NXT was put on TV at the time it was to begin with. For USA it’s a ratings benefit because an unopposed NXT will do far better in the key demo and thus help the station’s overall figures, and the NHL and other USA Network Wednesday programming won’t be hurt by AEW on TNT ... AEW will gain in total viewers with NXT being gone, but most of the increase in theory would be over 50, the demo NXT was the strongest in. When AEW has gone unopposed on Wednesdays, total viewership was up substantially but 18-49 gains were minor, and NXT had been reaching such a smaller number in that demo and most of those are likely people who wouldn’t be AEW fans to begin with. But there still should be some minor gain. The irony is that AEW’s status of being, along with select NBA and EPL games, the youngest skewing sports television property in the U.S., could be at jeopardy with this move, because the viewers the show would add would be more likely older, since NXT’s average viewer age has been around 58 years old.

In addition, PWInsider reported that WWE is considering a two-night Takeover on the Wednesday and Thursday prior to WrestleMania, on 4/7 and 4/8. Sources in NXT confirmed that is the current plan. This would seem to indicate issues with a Hall of Fame ceremony. If those two nights are Takeovers, and 4/9 would be a live Smackdown, with 4/10 and 4/11 WrestleMania and 4/12 Raw, that would either mean Hall of Fame on either the Tuesday before or Tuesday after. It’s also notable that at this point nothing has been said at all regarding the Hall of Fame, and usually at this point most members would have been announced. We do know that the families of last year’s inductees were told it would take place virtually this year over Mania week. But things are always changing. The report stated that the Wednesday night Takeover would be live on the USA Network, which would be the attempt to get a “win” on the last night before the move so it wouldn’t look like the company had a lengthy losing streak and then moved. Even though the move would be due to the NHL, there would be a perception by some that NXT picked a fight, lost every week but one over more than 18 months, including the entire year of 2020, and then moved away. The report would be that the Thursday Takeover would air on the WWE Network. The next part of the story, if this happens, would be what happens with Impact, which runs 8-10 p.m. on Tuesdays on AXS, which would be the new NXT time slot on USA. AEW also puts Dark on YouTube Tuesday and with AEW putting stuff on YouTube every Monday and Tuesday, even though both will be designed to primarily promote Wednesday, you don’t know how that will work in practice. Impact has always moved its day when WWE has moved onto its day, as in prior periods when a WWE television show would go against Impact, it would cut its audience greatly, sometimes in half. Since Impact is the highest rated show on AXS, the station would open up its schedule for it. The reason Anthem bought AXS in the first place was to be able to showcase Impact. This would leave Thursday as the only open night of the week. If New Japan was able to make a television deal, whether with AXS (and has noted the odds of that were better than 50 percent a few weeks ago) or another station, that would leave only Saturday night (against UFC and boxing), Sunday (against the NFL every fall) or perhaps better go with a 7 p.m. Monday (although AEW is trying to establish that for YouTube) or maybe 10 p.m. Tuesday through Friday (which if it was AXS what would make the most sense is a time slot right after Impact to replace the Impact in 60 show and move that show after the Impact replay). The Friday at 10 p.m. slot after Smackdown has been talked about by a number of companies for a potential one-hour time slot show with the idea a large number wrestling fans are at home watching a wrestling show.

[AEW] Revolution tickets were put on sale on 2/26 and sold out the 1,095 (give or take a few) tickets immediately, with paid being a little less than that. Then on 3/1 they put 125 more tickets on sale and when word got out they were gone instantly. Tony Khan said that they are going with 25 percent capacity and there will end up being 1,300 in the building, which would be the second largest crowd for pro wrestling in the U.S. since the pandemic.

For WrestleMania, the lineup has Reigns vs. Edge for the Universal title and Sasha Banks vs. Bianca Belair for the women’s title as official matches. The Miz & John Morrison vs. Damien Priest & Bad Bunny was scheduled. Randy Orton vs. The Fiend, likely in a wacky gimmick match, would seem to be a sure thing since it was set for Royal Rumble and moved back. Asuka vs. Charlotte Flair looks to be on the show. It could be Braun Strowman vs. Shane McMahon. The WWE title match certainly looks like Lashley vs. Drew McIntyre. However, Vince McMahon decided this week that the show needs to be bigger and to blow up the original ideas and how else can we use everyone, so there people are expecting changes this coming week from the original lineup and direction. Other title programs in play right now are Nia Jax & Shayna Baszler vs. Naomi & Lana (and perhaps Natalya & Tamina), Big E vs. Apollo Crews for the IC title, Robert Roode & Dolph Ziggler vs. Street Profits for the Smackdown tag titles and Riddle vs. Mustafa Ali for the U.S. title.

Stardom ran the biggest shows in its history on 3/3 at Budokan Hall in Tokyo, with its top star, Giulia, getting her head shaved after losing her Wonder of Stardom title to Tam Nakano. The show drew 3,318 fans for a four-hour long show with five title matches and two title changes. Besides Nakano’s win, Natsupoi won the High Speed title from AZM in the opener. The show, a worldwide PPV event, went well as most of the matches were strong, all were different both in content and stories. It was the most successful PPV show that the company has done to date and 25 percent of the PPV buys were from outside of Japan. Both Kairi Sane and Io Shirai, who first made their names in Stardom, sent video messages that aired at the start of the PPV. Shirai had her NXT title belt and they aired a video feature with highlights of Shirai from her Stardom days. Sane, who had asked to appear on the show but was denied by WWE, just sent a message, but was also at the show backstage. Hiroshi Tanahashi also sent a message congratulating the promotion on ten years.

AAA: Konnan’s condition is improving from his bout with COVID but there are still issues with his kidneys. He’s going to be getting a biopsy on them because there are issues that have come up.

NEW JAPAN: The reason Kazuchika Okada has been largely kept out of the title and main event scene, and worked more basic in his matches the last several months is that he’s working with two slipped discs in his lower back. It’s legitimately crippling, which is why he takes it easy when he’s in prelims but when he’s in a main event, he still delivers like in the match with Evil this past week, and I’d bet with Shingo Takagi this coming week. But backstage, he’s hurting bad

IMPACT: Hard to Kill did the second highest PPV number since the company lost Spike TV. Slammiverary, based on the tease of so many WWE wrestlers appearing and the question on who would debut, actually did more

Notes from the AEW women’s tournament. The 2/28 show on Bleacher Report ended up a misfire. It was fine in the U.S. but AEW was told it would air worldwide, and then it was geoblocked outside the U.S. There were 125,000 people watching live on Bleacher Report from the U.S. and just under 200,000 by early the next day. It was an issue on Bleacher Report where somebody made a mistake. Tony Khan immediately put the entire show up on YouTube so it was available worldwide. YouTube views were 137,000 over the next 21 hours but that’s a different stat and it was never advertised for YouTube although it was pushed for those outside the country.

Notes from the [AEW Dynamite] 3/3 show. With Shaquille O’Neal, they sold out opening up more seats the last two days. There were more than 1,000 paid, roughly 100 comps and just over 1,100 in the building

Regarding the Thunderdome location, they will be in St. Petersburg until just before WrestleMania. The ticketing department still is arranging flights to Tampa for Monday and Friday after WrestleMania, so the new location right now would appear to be somewhere in the Tampa market

There was a very interesting ruling made in Bill Nye’s lawsuit against Disney as far as a legal precedent. Nye had sued Disney over royalties on Disney +, believing that he should be entitled to 50 percent of the revenue value of streaming his shows. Disney had argued he was entitled to 20 percent, arguing the streaming was not broadcast television but the evolution of home video, so the royalty fees would be based on home video. Disney won the case this past week. But in the ruling, the judge ruled that streaming content is the natural progression of VHS and later DVD, and that the royalties should be the same. This ruling would seem to open up WWE, and every pro wrestling company that has a streaming service, that talent should be paid royalties for the shows with them airing the same as they would be in the days of VHS and later DVDs. That’s actually very significant. For this to apply, one would have to take WWE, or Impact, or New Japan, to court over these royalties. It is notable that New Japan has pulled all matches of certain people over the years over questions as to royalties they would want

The WWE is very aware of the aging aspect of the roster and developmental. We were told there has been a new doctrine when it comes to new signings that unless it is a special situation where somebody is really good or has potential, or if they have a name from elsewhere, they want to limit new developmental signings to those under the age of 30. This comes after signings of late 30s people like Taya Valkyrie and the former Eli Drake, who both would fit into the category of people with names in the business

Right now the plan is to introduce NXT women’s tag team titles

There was a story going around that WWE was fining wrestlers for “thigh slapping” when throwing kicks for sound effects, a practice that has been in wrestling as far back as I can remember. Mr. Wrestling II was famous for hard back slaps on the kneelift for sound effects and dating back to the 50s there was the stomp your foot hard on the mat at the moment of connection of the punch. The thigh slap superkick dates back to Chris Adams from when he came over from the U.K. It’s one of the silliest things to worry about because the perfectly timed moves garner great crowd response generally. But it became a buzzword for people who are mad it’s used so frequently (as if punches weren’t far more frequent doing the same thing in the 70s and punches worked fine in those days). Anyway, from what we’ve been told there was one memo sent to talent in NXT about doing it and nobody has said a word about it since. The irony of a group where Shawn Michaels is one of the main instructors, who grew up watching Adams, getting mad because Internet trolls who hate the Young Bucks complain about thigh slapping is the ultimate in silliness. The only time I can recall it even being notable was once when Nikki Bella came off the top rope with a kick that missed, and because her body was so programmed on delivering a kick motion she slapped her thigh in mid-air which was obvious on a kick that was supposed to miss. Yes, that spot should be taught not to do

In Canada, the 2/26 Smackdown show did 164,300 viewers and 96,100 in 25-54. NXT and Main Event didn’t crack the top ten in sports for the night. Raw on 3/1 did 218,000 viewers and 122,700 in 18-49. The second head-to-head AEW vs. NXT went strongly for AEW. AEW aired on both TSN 1 and 2, so it split the audience. The TSN 2 audience was 88,100 viewers and 42,300 in 25-54. We don’t have the TSN 1 audience, but it was lower than 73,600, since that was the cutoff for the top ten. NXT did 48,000 in its second week on Sportsnet 360, not making the top ten. It actually did worse live on Wednesday than it usually does taped on Friday

With no major new shows this past week the most-watched shows on the WWE Network ended up like this: 1. WWE 24 Big E; 2. Elimination Chamber 2021; 3. Raw Talk on 3/1; 4. Talking Smack on 2/27; 5. NXT; 6. Broken Skull Sessions with Sasha Banks; 7. Royal Rumble 2021; 8. WrestleMania 28; 9. WrestleMania 25; 10. Smackdown on 1/29. NXT U.K. cracked the top 25 at No. 13. The second Progress show on 2/27 cracked it at No. 21. So Progress and NXT U.K. both beat 205 Live

Ratings:

SPOILER: show

Raw on 3/1 averaged 1,883,000 viewers and 0.58 in 18-49 for a show built around stalling the Bobby Lashley vs. The Miz match until the end, with two false starts, and then delivering the title change. There are a lot of ways to look at it. Viewers were down 0.4 percent, and 18-49 was up 1.8 percent, although 18-34 was up 50.0 percent (which conversely means 35-49 was way down). However, the retention of viewership from the start-to-the finish of the show was the best since a show in July, so the creative of stalling the match out worked big for the night. Overall viewers and 18-49 weren’t really different from the week before, but the week before was a healthy post-PPV number, so this number for this show was a success. Raw was first for the night in 18-49 by a wide margin (second place was 0.34). It was second in women 18-49, first in men 18-49, first in 18-34, first in women 12-34 (doubling all but one show in that demo) and tied for first in men 12-34 with ESPN’s late-night SportsCenter. But that’s comparing a show the day after a PPV. But this show also promised a WWE title match at the top of the second hour, the top of the third and the end of the third hours. Raw finished eighth in total viewers for the night, its best showing in a long time, which more speaks of the decline of cable news, which was the only show that beats Raw for viewers now that football season is over. The key is the retention, as the first-to-third hour drop was only 5.2 percent. In studying, as far as keeping the viewers throughout the show, it did far better than usual, biggest in the 12-34 age group, and men under 35, far more with women, stayed with the show until the end. However when it comes to viewers there at the start, the show was way up with teenage girls, who did decline at close to usual rates, but there were so many more of them at the start than usual. The first hour did 1,916,000 viewers. The second hour did 1,918,000 viewers. The third hour did 1,817,000 viewers. The key stat as far as who this didn’t and didn’t work for is the audience that stayed and didn’t stay. Most audiences stayed at a better rate than usual, but women weren’t all that different. Men under 35 in particular did, so they either cared more about the belt and/or the two characters. Women 18-49 dropped 15.6 percent. Men 18-49 grew 7.0 percent, which is far different than the usual 10-15 percent drop. Women teens dropped 16.6 percent. Male teens gained 9.2 percent. Over 50 fell 5.6 percent that’s better than the usual roughly 10 percent drop. As compared to the same show one year ago, Raw was down 16.5 percent in total viewers, 21.6 percent in 18-49 and 27.8 percent in viewers 18-34. Raw did a 0.31 in 12-17 (up 19.2 percent from last week’s show), V), 0.39 in 18-34 (up 50.0 percent), 0.77 in 35-49 (down 12.5 percent) and 0.88 in 50+ (same as last week).

Smackdown on 2/26 did a 1.33 rating, 2,145,000 viewers (1.33 viewers per home), an 0.54 (699,000 viewers) in 18-49 and 0.29 in 18-34. The number of homes watching was identical to the prior week, but the lower numbers were based on fewer viewers per home. Smackdown finished third among network shows in 18-49 and the NBA game doing 0.49 on ESPN really considering the differences in homes beats it as well among cable shows. It was also third in 18-34 among network shows and lost significantly to the NBA on ESPN in that category. In women 18-49 it was third, beating first run NBC programming and CBS reruns. In men 18-49 it was second. It was last in over 50 and also last in total viewers. Smackdown was even in ratings with last week, down 3.2 percent in viewers, down 8.3 percent in 18-49 and down 17.1 percent in 18-34. As compared with one year ago, the drop was 22.2 percent in ratings, 20.2 percent in viewers, 31.0 percent in 18-49 and 42.0 percent in 18-34.

There were a lot of notable things about the 3/3 ratings battle, which saw AEW draw its largest total audience of the year, but even with Shaquille O’Neal, the 18-49 demo was actually down from a show last week that had a Lance Archer vs. Rey Fenix main event. The big key is that the O’Neal & Jade Cargill win over Cody Rhodes & Red Velvet drew 1,113,000 viewers, the largest average mach number on a head-to-head night in more than a year. But the problem is, the match was the opener. The people who tuned in to see Shaq got it right away and then left, and AEW did closer to normal numbers for the rest of the night. It’s a lesson that if you have a big attraction, he should be in the main event spot. However, the swelling of the audience for Shaq was largely over-50. Because you often build the audience, while Shaq was No. 1 for 35-49, in 18-34, it was the seventh ranked out of the eight quarters which likely says that a as big as the number was, a lot of people figured it would be the main event, and in some cases if they tuned in late, left. It was the first time in recent memory that AEW beat NXT in over 50, but it was also far closer in 18-49 than it would have been expected to do. AEW got plenty of mainstream stuff from sports radio and early morning talk shows the next day due to Shaq, but his going through the table didn’t get on SportsCenter and it didn’t crack the top 20 Google searches for the day, which Paul Wight did crack the week before. AEW finished sixth place for the night with 934,000 viewers and an 0.33 (425,000 viewers) in 18-49, actually down from last week. The key is that men were up but women were way down. In fact 35-49 women were so down that NXT slightly beat AEW in one of the four key demos. NXT finished No. 19 with 692,000 viewers and an 0.20 (259,000 viewers) in 18-49. As compared to last week, AEW was up 12.4 percent in viewers, but actually down 6.0 percent in 18-49 and up 6.9 percent in 18-34. The 18-49 number was a major disappointment but in hindsight, it’s because the main event was put on first. From an age standpoint, they skewed much older this week after being the youngest skewing sports event on national television last week. NXT was down 5.7 percent in viewers but up 11.2 percent in 18-49 and up 22.2 percent in 18-34, so from an age standpoint, they skewed much younger. As compared to one year ago, AEW was up 3.1 percent in viewers, down 5.7 percent in 18-49 and down 25.0 percent in 18-34. Unlike the recent trends of skewing much younger than last year, this show with its huge over 50 viewers, that wasn’t the case. As compared to last year, NXT was down 3.6 percent in viewers, down 21.7 percent in 18-49 and down 50.0 percent in 18-34, so skewing way older than a year ago. AEW only finished 23rd in women 18-49, but tied for second in men 18-49 behind the late NBA game. AEW was third in males 12-34 behind the two NBA games. The head-to-head NBA game against both shows did 1,087,000 viewers and 0.36. The late game did 1,324,000 viewers and 0.43. The NHL game did 549,000 viewers and 0.16. NXT was 10th in males 18-49. In the key demos, AEW did 88,000 in males 18-34 (up 33.3 percent from last week) to 29,000 for NXT (up 31.8 percent from last week). In women 18-34, AEW did 36,000 viewers (down 28.0 percent) and NXT did 26,000 (up 13.0 percent). In males 35-49, AEW did 229,000 (down 3.0 percent) and NXT did 129,000 (up 9.3 percent). In women 35-49, AEW did 72,000 (down 28.0 percent) and NXT actually won with 75,000 (up 7.1 percent). In the main event spot, AEW did 853,000 viewers and 398,000 in 18-49 for Adam Page & John Silver vs. Matt Hardy & Marq Quen. NXT did 597,000 viewers and 245,000 in 18-49 for Finn Balor vs. Roderick Strong. I actually would have thought with those two going against each other that viewers would have been close, and they weren’t. After AEW ended, the pickup in viewers to NXT for the last seven minutes were 93,000 viewers but only 13,000 of them were in 18-49. In the first quarter, AEW did 1,133,000 viewers and 451,000 in 18-49 for the Shaq match. NXT did 713,000 viewers and 254,000 in18-49 for Oney Lorcan & Danny Burch vs. Timothy Thatcher & Tommaso Ciampa. In the second quarter, AEW did 975,000 viewers and 428,000 in 18-49 for the end of the Shaq match, the ambulance spot with him and Pac & Rey Fenix vs. D3 & John Skyler. NXT did 734,000 viewers and 267,000 in 1849 for the ending of Lorcan & Burch vs. Ciampa & Thatcher, Finn Balor and Roderick Strong’s angle and the first Gargano family skit. In the third quarter, AEW did 976,000 viewers and 454,000 in 18-49 for the Chris Jericho/MJF press conference with the Young Bucks attack and the Atsushi Onita explosive barbed wire video. NXT did 701,000 viewers and 250,000 in 18-49 for Cameron Grimes with William Regal, Aliyah vs. ember Moon and a Thatcher & Ciampa interview. In the fourth quarter, AEW did 911,000 viewers and 416,000 in 18-49 for FTR & Tully Blanchard vs. Jurassic Express. NXT did 743,000 viewers and 271,000 in 18-49 for a Toni Storm/Io Shirai video and most of the Shayna Baszler & Nia Jax vs. Dakota Kai & Raquel Gonzalez title match. In the fifth quarter, AEW did 903,000 viewers and 444,000 in 18-49 got the Paul Wight interview, the women’s tournament video and the first half of Nyla Rose vs. Ryo Mizunami. NXT did 747,000 viewers and 269,000 in 18-49 for the rest of Baszler & Jax vs. Kai & Gonzalez, the second Gargano skit and Isaiah Scott promo. In the sixth quarter, AEW did 881,000 viewers and 411,000 in 18-49 for the end of Rose vs. Mizunami, and the Sting & Darby Allin vs. Team Taz segment. NXT did 643,000 viewers and 253,000 in 18-49 for the L.A. Knight interview and Bronson Reed vs. Grimes. In the seventh quarter, AEW did 836,000 viewers and 400,000 in 18-49 for 10 vs. Max Caster. NXT did 663,000 viewers and 255,000 in 18-49 for the Kayden Carter/Xia Li build, the third part of the Gargano skit and Legado del Fantasmo attacking Ever Rise and Breezango. The main event quarter saw AEW gain 17,000 viewers but lost 2,000 in 18-49 for Page & Silver vs. Hardy & Quen. NXT lost 66,000 viewers and 10,000 in 18-49 for Balor vs. Strong. AEW did a 0.13 in 12-17 (up 18.2 percent), 0.18 in 18-34 (up 6.9 percent), 0.48 in 35-49 (down 10.4 percent) and 0.38 in 50+ (up 31.0 percent). The AEW audience was 74.6 percent male in 18-49 and 75.6 percent male in 12-17, the highest in recent memory. The real story from August is that AEW has gone way up with men, but way down with women. NXT did an 0.10 in 12-17 (same as last week), 0.08 in 18-34 (up 22.2 percent), 0.32 in 35-49 (up 8.5 percent) and 0.32 in 50+ (down 20.0 percent). NXT was 61.0 percent male in 18-49 and 58.5 percent male in 12-17. What is notable is that last week NXT was 88.8 percent male among teenagers and that changed greatly this week with the women, across the board from 12-49 coming to NXT and away from AEW.

The AEW Countdown show did 347,000 viewers and 0.12 in 18-49, putting it at No. 51 for the night. That number was also disappointing. It was a great show, and was another argument for putting the Shaq match last because it would have been a better lead-in.