[Emperor Smeat]

The Sheets (Observer Newsletter Edition):

The Braun Strowman vs. Shane McMahon match was announced for Raw, then became an angle, and then was announced for Fast Lane. Then there was talk it was off Fast Lane for Mania, but nothing could be confirmed at press time past it has simply stopped being advertised for the show after it was announced on Raw for the show.

NXT had a COVID outbreak this past week. A number of people scheduled for the 3/17 show were pulled, some for testing positive and some or being exposed to someone who had tested positive. The biggest name involved was Paul Levesque. His situation is being kept secretive but it was said he was quarantining, but not that he has COVID. He missed Raw on 3/15 and also wasn’t at NXT on 3/17, with Shawn Michaels and Brian James running the show. Also not in the building included referee Drake Wuertz, Pete Dunne, Timothy Thatcher, Alexander Wolfe, Wes Lee, Carter Nash, Zack Gibson, James Drake, Leon Ruff, Isaiah Scott, Johnny Gargano and Candice LeRae. I believe Cameron Grimes wasn’t either as they just showed stiff photos of him rather than doing a vignette with him as they had been doing, but I didn’t get hat name confirmed. Ruff’s fiancé, Aja Smith, was there. Lee, Nash, Gibson, Drake, Gargano and LeRae were on the show in segments that were zoomed in. Dunne should have been part of the interview segment with Oney Lorcan & Danny Burch but wasn’t there. Gargano & LeRae did a Zoom from home trying to explain why they weren’t there for Austin Theory for his match with Dexter Lumis, saying they wanted him on his own. Indi Hartwell also didn’t appear on television but we didn’t hear if she wasn’t there, but it wasn’t like there was an obvious sport for her on the show without Gargano and LeRae. The TV main event was scheduled originally as Tommaso Ciampa & Timothy Thatcher vs. Imperium, but Ciampa did an interview saying Imperium took out Thatcher but you’ll find that Wolfe isn’t around, implying he took Wolfe out. At the time word of the outbreak came, both the Scott vs. Ruff and Ciampa & Thatcher vs. Imperium matches were pulled from advertising. Ciampa ended up doing a singles match with Marcel Barthel which set up a future singles match with Walter, likely on one of the two Takeover shows. Those not there could have tested positive, been exposed to those who tested positive, or in some cases, not been booked to be there because the person they were doing a match or angle with tested positive, or weren’t needed. Wuertz not being there allowed WWE to promote the show as the first one in company history where all four referees working the show were of color. Regarding the COVID positives, one of the things people were saying is that on 3/11, they were building and moving rings in the building next to the Performance Center and some of the people working weren’t following protocol and wearing masks. Now it’s been noted to us that the belief is some got it from that, but the issue came earlier because there were people who were sick on 3/12, and the belief is it takes two days from exposure to sickness, so that at least some people got it prior to 3/11.

PRO WRESTLING NOAH: Go Shiozaki, who carried the company last year and placed seventh for Wrestler of the Year and had two of the year’s best bouts with Takashi Sugiura and Katsuhiko Nakajima in GHC title matches while battling a significant shoulder injury, will be undergoing surgery for the injury. He’ll be out of action for several months

The Strong Hearts (Cima, T-Hawk and Lindaman) announced that they were joining the new GLEAT promotion. GLEAT is also trying to do a working relationship through Cima with AAA. Cima has said that before the pandemic, the idea was for all three of them to base themselves in Mexico City, work for AAA, and Mexico City would lead to easier travel to AEW as well. Ryuichi Kawakami of Big Japan has also signed with GLEAT and finishes up with Big Japan at the end of the month and starts with the new group on 4/1,.

The combined NFL contract which are now all signed went for $10 billion annually over a new 11-year-deal. Most of the stuff remains the same, with ESPN getting Mondays, NBC getting Sunday nights and CBS and FOX on Sundays as well. FOX didn’t get the Thursday shows, which will air on Amazon Prime as an exclusive for $1 billion per year. The key is that Amazon Prime did bid giant money for a premium sports franchise. The belief is that the NFL and NBA would get big money deals but that would limit the cash the networks that bid on these new deals would have for secondary sports, which is where pro wrestling and MMA can fit in. The contract covers the seasons from 2023 to 2033. ESPN+ and Peacock will each get one exclusive game, plus Paramount (CBS), ESPN+ (ABC/ESPN) and Peacock (NBC) will simulcast a number of television games. The biggest part of the story as it relates to pro wrestling is that Monday nights will be getting tougher. ABC/ESPN is expanding from 17 to 23 games, and also will be getting better gams than in the past in the last several weeks as it used to be a locked in schedule and now they can pick games based on what they think will draw from week 12 on. In addition, there will be three weeks where ABC and ESPN will air different games, which will cut into each others’ audience, but two different NFL games against Raw will hurt Raw numbers. The NHL having a huge increase was a positive sign for WWE and AEW. With the NHL, it’s as much prestige of the brand as a major sport that you can charge high ad rates for, which WWE and AEW don’t bring to the table. But except for the Stanley Cup finals, don’t do ratings as big as either wrestling company For pro wrestling drop comparisons, this is how college basketball regular season ratings did as compared to last season (the regular season ended before COVID was a factor). CBS was down 9.7 percent. FOX was down 9.2 percent. ESPN was down 21.3 percent. ABC was up 60.7 percent. ESPN 2 was down 12.3 percent. FA 1 was down 10.0 percent

Josh Barnett said of Bloodsport that he would love to have Brock Lesnar on a show but that it would be impossible to make that work financially. He said he did inquire with the management of Cain Velasquez to be on an upcoming show but they couldn’t make that work either. They also announced Chavo Guerrero Jr. vs. Rocky Romero for the next show on 4/8 at the Cuban Club in Tampa

Leyla Hirsch has signed a regular deal here. She had been working on a per event deal and signed a full-time guaranteed money contract. Hirsch, originally from Moscow, wrestled amateur at 121 and 131 pounds from 2013 to 2017 and then started at CZW in 2017. She debuted in Stardom in 2020 and started in AEW on Dynamite on 10/21 somebody to lose a TV match to Hikaru Shida and did so well they booked her for NWA title match the next day to lose to Serena Deeb, and she’s been used ever since

Brandon Thurston had some figures on the last PPV and noted that the promotional cut of the total gross of revenue is actually lower than 50 percent. For B/R Live and television cable in the U.S., where most of the buys come from, AEW gets 45 percent of the total gross and the hosting company gets the rest. For FITE TV and other overseas distributors, the promoter cut is 40 percent. Right now Revolution, depending on the television PPV buy numbers and late buys, figures to do between 122,000 (if the television PPV numbers are the same as Full Gear) and 137,000 buys (if television numbers in the U.S. increase at the same percentage that the streaming numbers did, which would theoretically be the case but not for sure). Generally in PPV the early reported television number will increase 10-15 percent although AEW is probably less than that average because of more hardcore and less casual fans. Even in recent years with WWE it’s been the same. Because FITE charges so much less than B/R and Cable, the total gross would fall closer to $5.3 million to $5.6 million for the PPV end along with $74,750 for the live gate and $20,700 for merchandise so it’ll will end up around a $5.4 million to $5.7 million not including the closed-circuit revenue. That would still be the largest for any non-WWE pro wrestling show since 1999 and no promotion in history except WWE, WCW and New Japan would have ever taken that much in for one night for any show. The actual AEW cut of this would be in the range of $2.3 million to $2.5 million from PPV. However, the value to a streaming company that would buy the rights would be $4.0 million to 4.9 million just for the U.S. because they wouldn’t have to share the split. That’s how ESPN+ can pay UFC like it’s McGregor and Rousey in their primes and in a down year still more than make out, because UFC previously was getting 50 percent while ESPN+, by removing television PPV, gets 100 percent (it actually gets less than that depending on the method of ordering but in most homes it would be 100 percent). We also haven’t factored in the closed-circuit numbers for the show, but given the pandemic, and social distancing limiting capacity and fewer people going out, even though anecdotal reports on attendance were higher than expected, that figure probably isn’t all that significant. In the end, the key is the explosive barbed wire match drew big and even if it had worked, they can’t do it again. And actually this was a bad day, with the NBA All-Star game, the Oprah interview and the day after a huge UFC event, so that almost magnifies how big the main event stipulation was. But all you learn from this is that it drew the first time, but because of what happened, it’s hard to think it would a second time, and best case scenario you couldn’t do it again for at least a year anyway and given what happened it may be a lot longer than that before they’d try it again. It appeared more than half of the new customers were leaning toward buying the next show but a very significant percentage also are not willing at all. But the business end has evolved to where it’s more about coming up with gimmicks for the main event than matches or grudge matches or promos building matches, and outside entertainment factors in. AEW’s first PPV after they got television, with Cody Rhodes vs. Chris Jericho, had a big stip with Cody vowing to never challenge if he lost, and the best promos to build such a match you could hope for, and I don’t know that any of that mattered as far as the number went

Tony Schiavone has put together a graphic novel of his life called “Butts in Seats: The Tony Schiavone Story.” He was looking for $20,000 in crowd funding for the project and got $29,000 the first day

When the “live” feed went up for the debut of Dark Elevation on 3/15 they were averaging about 30,000 viewers, which isn’t a ton at all but YouTube shows rarely have big viewership at the moment. But the key interesting stat is they were doing 30,000 before Raw started, and after Raw started, they were doing about 29,500 and for a show like that, you’d expect numbers to drop even more than that on the first feed as it goes along to begin with. It’s the same thing regarding the homes that buy WWE on PPV, the percentage of those homes who buy an AEW show is shockingly small. One would expect a serious drop when Raw starts and that not happening has to be considered a shock, but also tells you just how different the two audiences are. It also tells you the difference between television and streaming. When WWE was doing similar live streaming with a Smackdown-lead in and promotion on the show they were doing 35,000 to 65,000 viewers and with no lead-in would have done lower. Basically all the talk of streaming getting a new younger audience that TV doesn’t reach is not the case. Even worldwide views (which measure a few seconds of viewing) vs. domestic television numbers (which measure an average of viewers over two hours) have domestic television numbers dwarfing streaming. Keep in mind the 30,000 in worldwide and until that number (not the final streaming but the live streaming) is probably around 1 million or more worldwide, that would be comparable to the reach of television

This is the A&E schedule for shows that will be airing on Sunday nights from 8-10 p.m. It will be Steve Austin on 4/18, Randy Savage on 4/25, Roddy Piper on 5/2, Booker T on 5/9, Shawn Michaels on 5/16, Bret Hart on 5/23, Mick Foley on 5/30 (which will go head-to-head with the next AEW PPV show), and Ultimate Warrior on 6/6. I was interviewed for the final three episodes although that doesn’t mean I’ll be on them. I was told the Hart episode is really good and I was a big part of that one

Once again not a lot of new WWE network content as far as the most-watched shows, given how high NXT placed. The top ten this past week as far as viewing goes were: 1. The Best of Fast Lane; 2. The Making of Stone Cold; 3. Fast Lane 2015; 4. Heaven (the documentary on high school wrestler Heaven Fitch that was No. 1 last week); 5. NXT from 3/10; 6. Smackdown 2/12; 7. Elimination Chamber 2021; 8. Raw Talk; 9. Talking Smack; 10. Royal Rumble 2021. NXT U.K. was 13th. No other current wrestling or indie wrestling (and they are airing new Progress shows) cracked the top 25. It’s notable the only shows actually pushed on television were No. 8 and No. 9, and the top two, if I didn’t have a list, I wouldn’t have even known of them

Ratings:

SPOILER: show

Raw on 3/15 did an average of 1,843,000 viewers and 0.56 in 18-49, but the biggest story was that the 18-49 audience that usually drops greatly, rose throughout the show. That led to just a 4.9 percent decline from hour one to hour three, the lowest in a long time. The key to this is partially the first week of Daylight Savings Time. During the winter months, the first hour is almost always the highest. During daylight savings time, very often the second hour is the highest and the level of declines lower. While the first hour was the highest in overall viewers by all of 1,000 viewers, with people arriving to the show late, the third hour doesn’t drop as much. The first hour did 1,874,000 viewers. The second hour did 1,873,000 viewers. And the third hour did 1,782,000 viewers. But for women 18-49, the three hours, in order, were 0.39, 0.40 and 0.43, and with men they were 0.66, 0.72 and 0.74, the reverse of normal. The big growth over last week was with teenage girls which were up 40.3 percent from last week. Raw won the night in women 18-49 (rare), men 18-49, placed second in 18-34 (behind one NBA game), won in women 12-34 (even rarer) and was third in men 12-34 (behind both NBA games). The biggest competition was the NBA, which saw the late game (starting just before Raw ended) doing 1,285,000 viewers and 0.47 in 18-49 and 0.40 in 18-34, and the game mostly against Raw doing 1,125,000 viewers, 0.38 in 18-49 and 0.32 in 18-34. Overall, Raw placed eighth for the night, tying its best showing in recent months, finishing behind seven news shows. Raw was down 2.8 percent in total viewers, but up 0.8 percent in 18-49 and 4.1 percent in 18-34. So it held steady and grew with the Bobby Lashley vs. Sheamus main event, which was never said to either be for or not for the title until the match started. As compared to last year’s show, which was a show replaying old PPV matches with little new content as it was week one of the pandemic, the show was down 21.1 percent in viewers, 21.1 percent in 18-49 and 36.5 percent in 18-34. Raw did 123,000 viewers in male 18-34 (down 14.0 percent), 107,000 in women 18-34 (up 37.2 percent), 335,000 in men 35-49 (up 3.4 percent) and 160,000 in women 35-49 (down 8.0 percent). As far as the first-to-third hour, there was growth in 18-49 but the other demos shows normal level declines, actually teenage declines were worse than usual and over 50 declined, but not quite at the usual level. Women 18-49 grew 10.3 percent. Men 18-49 grew 12.1 percent. Teenage girls dropped 20.6 percent. Teenage boys dropped 26.8 percent.

Smackdown on 3/12 did a 1.31 rating and 2,171,000 viewers (1.37 viewers per home) and an 0.61 (795,000 viewers) in 18-49. It also did a 0.35 in 18-34. Smackdown was second to Shark Tank in 18-49 (Shark Tank at 0.64) and second in 18-34 (Shark Tank at 0.40). For overall viewers, Smackdown was sixth among the seven prime time shows only beating a rerun show on CBS. CBS had all rerun programming while ABC and NBC had first-run. There was nothing on cable that beat Smackdown, although College Basketball on ESPN, including a game that started at 11:33 p.m. in the Pac-12 tournament, did very close (0.30 and 0.31) in 18-34, which being on ESPN, is far more impressive than what Smackdown did on FOX. Those games did 0.39 and 0.27 in 18-49, so the 11:33 p.m. game actually saw 18-34 way higher than 35-49, which is a rarity. As compared to the week before, with the Daniel Bryan vs. Jey Uso cage match, the households were down 3.7 percent, viewers were down 3.6 percent, 18-49 was actually up 3.1 percent while 18-34 was down 5.4 percent. Most number drops except in 35-49 with the big increase would be expected at that level coming off a show with a cage match. As compared to the same week last year, Smackdown was down 17.6 percent in homes watching, down 12.1 percent in total viewers, down 15.6 percent in 18-49 and down 30.0 percent in 18-34. Smackdown did 157,000 viewers in men 18-34 (down 3.1 percent from last week), 86,000 in women 18-34 (down 9.5 percent), 316,000 in men 35-49 (up 5.7 percent) and 236,000 in women 35-49 (up 9.8 percent)./

The 3/17 ratings saw both AEW and NXT do disappointing numbers. AEW, built around the first women’s main event in Dynamite history with Britt Baker vs. Thunder Rosa in a lights out match that was one of the best matches in the history of the show, did 768,000 viewers but fell to an 0.28 (362,000 viewers) in 18-49. It finished in sixth place for the night. NXT did 597,000 viewers and an 0.13 (164,000 viewers) in 18-49. It was the third lowest 18-49 number in the show’s history, and really the worst because the only two lower were 12/30 going against the Alabama vs. Ohio State college football championship game and 2/21 going against Trump’s impeachment. Still, even with the near record low, it was at No. 42, and many weeks they’ve been out of the top 50. The reason for the decline is perhaps what was advertised not being strong enough, but also St. Patrick’s Day meaning the 18-49 audience went out, perhaps in higher numbers than expected. For the top entertainment shows, 67 percent declined from the prior week in 18-49.so it wasn’t just a wrestling thing. AEW actually did well in most demos as far as standings, finishing third behind two NBA games in Males 18-49, fifth in 18-34, ninth in women 12-34 and fourth (behind two NBA games and Challenge Double Agent) in men 12-34. But in women 18-49, it tied June 24, 2020, a middle of pandemic show, for its worst number in history. NXT figured to not do well since they really didn’t do well the week before with a loaded up show with two major title matches pushed for a week and a third added the night of the show. This week had nothing like that, although they did headline with a tag team title match. AEW was up 3.4 percent in viewers from last week, but down 12.8 percent in 18-49 and down 4.0 percent in 18-34, so aged up. NXT was down 13.6 percent in viewers from last week, but down 28.4 percent in 18-49 and down 5.2 percent in 18-34. As compared to last year, AEW was down 17.6 percent in viewers, 20.0 percent in 18-49 and 26.3 percent in 18-34. Last year’s show was a big one with the debut of Matt Hardy and Brodie Lee, and NXT was an all taped highlights show so AEW really had no competition. NXT was up 10.1 percent over an all taped show last year, but still down 18.8 percent in 18-49. The most notable stuff regarded the main event segments. AEW with Baker vs. Rosa did 795,000 viewer and 387,000 in 18-49 in the final quarter. NXT with a tag team title match with Oney Lorcan & Danny Burch vs. Finn Balor & Karrion Kross did 523,000 viewers and 129,000 in 18-49, which has to be the lowest NXT number ever and AEW tripled NXT in the slot. It was very much AEW pulling the NXT audience over for that match, because when AEW went off the air, NXT had an immediate gain of 264,000 viewers and 86,000 in 18-49, which may be the largest gain after the show AEW has gone off the air to date. As far as channel switches for the main events in total, Rosa vs. Baker gained 11,000 men 18-34, 35,000 men 35-49, 2,000 women 18-34 and 11,000 women 35-49. NXT lost 3,000 men 18-34, 33,000 men 35-49, gained 5,000 women 18-34 and lost 2,000 women 35-49. Overall, AEW killed NXT with men, but while winning with women, it wasn’t nearly as one-sided. AEW did 59,000 in men 18-34 (down 1.7 percent from last week) to 24,000 for NXT (down 33.3 percent). AEW did 38,000 women 18-34 (down 7.3 percent) to 31,000 for NXT (up 40.9 percent). AEW did 206,000 in men 35-49 (down 10.8 percent) to 61,000 for NXT (down 46.5 percent). AEW did 64,000 in women 35-49 (down 22.9 percent) to 48,000 for NXT (down 15.8 percent). AEW opened with 848,000 viewers and 388,000 in 18-49 for Cody Rhodes vs. Penta. Both those numbers were the AEW high point. It was also the peak for women 18-49. NXT opened with 663,000 viewers and 192,000 in 18-49 for the Finn Balor, Karrion Kross, Scarlett, Oney Lorcan and Danny Burch promo segment and the start of Dexter Lumis vs. Austin Theory. This was the NXT peak for total viewers, 18-49 viewers, men 18-49, and women 18-49. The second quarter saw AEW do 797,000 viewers and 379,000 in 18-49 for a Young Bucks & Don Callis promo, Jade Cargill vs. Dani Jordyn and the beginning of the Pinnacle promo. This was the AEW peak fr men 18-34. NXT did 612,000 viewers and 166,000 in 18-49 for Lumis vs. Theory and interviews with Tommaso Ciampa, This was the NXT peak for men 18-34. In the third quarter, AEW had 735,000 viewers and 343,000 in 18-49 with the bulk of The Pinnacle promo plus Matt Hardy & Private Party & Butcher & Blade vs. Bear Country & Jurassic Express. NXT did 594,000 viewers and 166,000 in 18-49 for Aliyah & Jessi Kamea challenging Ember Moon & Shotzi Blackheart and Tyler Breeze & Fandango vs. Raul Mendoza & Joaquin Wilde. In the fourth quarter, AEW had 741,000 viewers and 352,000 in 18-49 for the rest of the ten men tag as well as interviews with Jon Moxley & Eddie Kingston and with Christian Cage. NXT did 583,000 viewers and 166,000 in 18-49 for the finish of Mendoza & Wilde vs. Breeze & Fandango and the Santos Escobar/Jordan Devlin confrontation. In the fifth quarter, AEW had 835,000 viewers and 382,000 in 18-49 for Moxley & Kingston vs. Doc Gallows & Karl Anderson and the post-match with Kenny Omega, Callis and Young Bucks. This was the AEW peak for women 18-34. NXT had 564,000 viewers and 153,000 in 18-49 for Dakota Kai vs. Zoey Stark and Io Shirai coming out to confront Raquel Gonzalez. This tied for the NXT peak for women 18-34. In the sixth quarter, AEW had 716,000 viewers and 340,000 in 18-49 for interviews with Sting, Darby Allin, Jake Roberts, Lance Archer and Team Taz and the start of Fenix vs. Angelico. NXT had 604,000 viewers and 161,000 in 18-49 for stuff MSK, Grizzled Young Veterans, Ciampa vs. Marcel Barthel, the return of Walter and Kyle O’Reilly running Adam Cole off the road. In the seventh quarter, AEW had 676,000 viewers and 328,000 I 18-49 for the end of Fenix vs. Angelico, Miro & Kip Sabian promo and the Baker vs. Rosa intros and start. NXT did 568,000 viewers and 162,000 in 18-49 for an LA Knight promo, Knight vs. August Gray and a Gonzalez & Kai promo. The final quarter saw AEW with Baker vs. Rosa gain 119,000 viewers and 59,000 in 18-49. It was also AEW’s peak in men 18-49. NXT with Lorcan & Burch defending against Balor & Kross lost 45,000 viewers and 33,000 in 18-49. But it was the NXT peak in women 18-34. AEW did a 0.12 in 12-17 (up 33.3 percent from last week), 0.14 in 18-34 (down 4.0 percent), 0.42 in 35-49 (down 14.0 percent) and 0.31 in 50+ (up 24.0 percent). The audience was 73.2 percent male in 18-49 which remains well over what the show usually does, and 54.6 percent male in 12-17. NXT did a 0.10 in 12-17 (up 66.7 percent), 0.08 in 18-34 (down 5.2 percent), 0.18 in 35-49 (down 36.3 percent) and 0.34 in 50+ (down 12.8 percent). NXT was 51.8 percent male in 18-49, way lower than usual, and 78.6 percent male in 12-17.

Regarding DVR viewers, for the period from 2/17 to 3/10 AEW’s has increased its DVR viewership to 34 percent above the initial number while NXT has fallen to 25 percent. Previously both were almost identical at 31 and 30 percent

Dark Side of the Ring Confidential, which was a replay of the Montreal screwjob episode along with comments from the producers along with Conrad Thompson in wrap-arounds did 81,000 viewers and an 0.02.

In Canada, Raw on 3/8 did 231,300 viewers and 127,400 in 25-54. On 3/10, neither AEW nor NXT charted in Canada. The No. 10 sports show was 113,500 viewers. Smackdown on 3/12 did 190,700 viewers in Canada and 97,600 in 25-54

In an interesting note, NXT went from charting every so often in Canada on Fridays to not charting at all ever since they moved to Wednesdays a few weeks ago.