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Old 08-22-2015, 12:20 AM   #3161
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Wilpons should hand Cespedes a blank check this offseason.
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Old 08-22-2015, 10:23 AM   #3162
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If I'm the Jays I'm giving David Price whatever he wants this off-season. First Jays pitcher since Halladay that I feel confident when he pitches.
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Old 08-22-2015, 12:11 PM   #3163
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I'd be careful there, Vito. Cespedes is having a resurgence this year after barely being above average the two years prior. They should maybe sign him, but not for a blank check.

I'm more curious to see where and for how much Jason Heyward goes.
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Old 08-22-2015, 12:40 PM   #3164
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I wouldn't say he was barely above average - he was good. I will say he was good while alot of people thought he was great. Agree on Heyward. He's getting a 7/200 deal from someone. I'd guess Cespedes gets 5/125 from whoever misses out on Heyward and is vastly overpaid.
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Old 08-22-2015, 01:17 PM   #3165
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Frank. I love you. But you are out of your mind if you think Heyward will get anywhere close to a 7/200 deal EVER.

Thats over 28 million a year bro. For a career .265 hitter who will net you 55-60 RBIs and 13-14 HR. No one is giving him anywhere NEAR that kind of money, and if they do they are dumb and should be fired.
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Old 08-22-2015, 01:36 PM   #3166
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if Heyward is worth 7/200, Justin Upton is also.
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Old 08-22-2015, 01:43 PM   #3167
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If you guarantee that Cespedes would net 20+ HR and 80+ RBI through the life of his next contract, I would sign up for it in a heartbeat even if it does constitute an overpayment. The Mets' pitching should be really good through at least 2018 when Harvey becomes the first member of the staff to hit free agency. But if you let Cespedes go I really don't know where you're getting your offense from next year. Nobody knows what Wright will be able to do after his back injury. Murph will be gone. Duda is streaky. d'Arnaud is streaky AND injury prone. Cuddyer is a bust. Lagares clearly needs elbow surgery. Granderson's having a nice bounceback year with 22 longballs but most of them are solo shots since he hits leadoff.

There's just way more questions than answers next year without Cespedes. Before they got Cespedes they lost so many games where they wasted a gem from their starter because they couldn't score at all. If they had Cespedes in their lineup this whole season they'd probably have completely blown the doors open on this division by now.

Oh and he's also a good defender and his arm is a goddamn cannon. A big perk for Citi Field.
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Old 08-22-2015, 02:25 PM   #3168
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lol who would be dumb enough to pay 7/200 for Heyward?
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Old 08-22-2015, 02:25 PM   #3169
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Unhappy
Ruben Amaro, probably
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Old 08-22-2015, 03:21 PM   #3170
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Ill stand by what I said. Maybe its "only" 180 or its an 8 year deal but he gets his money. He's getting paid 25-30 mil per year.

If Jacoby Ellsbury got 7/158 at 30 years old, Carl Crawford got 7/175 at 29, Heyward might even get more than what I'm guessing - and its probably going to be from the Cardinals.
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Old 08-22-2015, 04:03 PM   #3171
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lol who would be dumb enough to pay 7/200 for Heyward?
Dodgers?
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Old 08-22-2015, 04:08 PM   #3172
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Think the Cards gave up Shelby Miller for one year of Heyward?

But yeah, the Dodgers don't give two fucks about money now.
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Old 08-22-2015, 04:18 PM   #3173
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if Heyward is worth 7/200, Justin Upton is also.
He gets whatever Cespedes gets.

Not sure why so many of you think 200 mil for Heyward is insane.
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Old 08-22-2015, 04:37 PM   #3174
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Because it is insane to pay $200 million to a career .265 hitter who doesn't hit a bunch of homeruns or drive in a bunch of runs.
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Old 08-22-2015, 05:25 PM   #3175
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You're going with batting average, HR and RBI to quantify his performance? I know you're a Phillies fan, but you're smarter than that.
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Old 08-22-2015, 05:43 PM   #3176
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It's also insane, and honestly quite daft, in this day and age of advanced, far more informative statistics to think Cespedes is better than Heyward or that the latter shouldn't get a hefty if
not higher pay day than the other outfielders on the market based on counting numbers.

Heyward is about to clear his 4th 4 war season in 6 years, at 25 years old, in a walk year. He's also been consistently 2 wins or better above the average player sans one season throughout his career. And while he doesn't compile high homerun tallies, he's still an above average hitter for his career with room to grow, and is arguably the best defensive right fielder in the game. Maybe 7 years and 200 is a bit of an over statement, but 8 or even 9 years at that rate is not out of the realm of possibility. I think Heyward is the number one position player on the free agent market. Much more well rounded game than Upton and Cespedes, but still had prime years ahead of him.

Cespedes is good, but is, imo, largely overrated. His primary skill is hitting a ball over a fence. His power makes him an above average hitter for his career, but good career ops+ is only marginally higher than Heyward's, who's 4 years younger and while Cespedes is a good defensive left fielder, his defense is not as good as Heyward's. This is actually the only year where Cespedes is on a similar level with the glove. Over the course of their careers, Heyward blows Cespedes out of the water in the outfield. Cespedes is actually peaking far above his career numbers, and I'd wager it safe to say 2015 will likely be best overall season and he'll regress to his personal norm next year.

So, you have outfielders who are, at bat for at bat, about equal, with one being the far more elite defender and only age 26 in year one of his next deal, while the other is performing at a level he's reached only one other time at age 26 and will be age 30 in year one of his deal, an age where players typically begin to decline.

I'll give the money to the guy who is going give you 4 seasons before turning age 30.
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Old 08-22-2015, 06:10 PM   #3177
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he just turned 26 too.

An above average hitter with great strike zone discipline who's a 15 HR guy now with room to grow, plays Gold Glove OF with a cannon for an arm, and has speed as well as base running acumen (18 SB, 2 CS this year).

25.2 WAR through his 5.5 year career up to this point. This year should have been his 5th +4 win season. Had 3.4 in 2013 and only played in 104 games. Been worth that money his whole career. He's getting a massive deal.
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Old 08-22-2015, 06:16 PM   #3178
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15 HR with room to grow? You guys must not remember how he put up 27 HR in 2011 or 12, then hasn't hit more than 11 since. His production has almost consistently dropped across the board since his first 2 years.
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Old 08-22-2015, 06:17 PM   #3179
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We had him for 5 years in Atlanta. I've watched him thoroughly. He is slightly above average at best.

If he gets a superstar deal I will shit a brick. AND eat it.
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Old 08-22-2015, 06:23 PM   #3180
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He's been pretty consistent his whole career actually, 2012 HR total aside. His wRC+ in seasons 2012-2015: 121, 119, 110, 114.

Pointing out HR because screech mentioned it. While he may have hit 27 once, the rest of his career has seen him in the 15 HR range - based on his age, yes, he has room to grow since you typically don't reach your power potential until 27 or 28.
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Old 08-22-2015, 06:36 PM   #3181
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Quote:
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You're going with batting average, HR and RBI to quantify his performance? I know you're a Phillies fan, but you're smarter than that.
Yeah, sorry I use real numbers to show he's not a guy to break the bank to have. If I'm paying someone $200 million, he'd better show some actual results.
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Old 08-22-2015, 06:45 PM   #3182
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Art Howe ladies and gentlemen.

Cmon man, you know those numbers make for a really weak argument. Damian Rey already went through this 5 posts ago.
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Old 08-22-2015, 06:57 PM   #3183
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Lol real numbers. I guess Ryan Howard is still worth that $25 million a year since he compiles homeruns and RBI, you know, real numbers. I think Ruben Amaro has hacked screech's account.

I don't understand how some of you are still placing heavy value in counting numbers. Why rate stats are not being more heavily figured into a players overall contribution is beyond. This isn't the 1990s anyone. The pro teams realize and now heavily rely on far more telling metrics than "TEH RIBBIES" to judge value.

I hope Seph is ready to eat that shit brick.
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Old 08-22-2015, 07:09 PM   #3184
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I will allow seph to put a layer of frosting on that shit brick. Also "Chicks dig the longball" and so does screech
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Old 08-22-2015, 07:10 PM   #3185
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I really hope screech is just trolling right now.
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Old 08-22-2015, 07:12 PM   #3186
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Yeah, lemme ignore stats I can actually quantify in favor of how many projected runs he might very well possibly score over the next two years.

Sabermetrics are not the be-all end all for evaluating talent. HRs and RBIs might not be either, but to not acknowledge them at all is silly.

But be my guest if you want to use "metrics" to justify paying $200 million for an average player.

Ryan Howard was never worth that contract, for the record.
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Old 08-22-2015, 07:14 PM   #3187
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As much as I understand/agree with many of the advanced metrics, I liked them much more before people were insufferable douchebags about them. Ever try reading a Bill James interview? The guy has absolutely zero patience for people who don't have the same grasp on sabermetrics that he does. He actively talks down to people who even try to use traditional statistics.

Similarly, I'm pretty sure Brian Kenny (who I love) is going to murder Harold Reynolds in his sleep one of these years.
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Old 08-22-2015, 07:16 PM   #3188
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Jorge Posada Day at the Stadium today and the Yankees decided to show up and win today.

#20 retired. Yanks are running out of numbers.
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Old 08-22-2015, 07:19 PM   #3189
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Also in the case of Cespedes, I really don't need to go into advanced numbers to know he's clearly a better offensive player than anybody else on the Mets roster and this is likely to be true in 2016 as well even if he regresses to something closer to his 2014 self. I wish I could say I had faith in Wright coming close to what he was in 2012 or 13 even, but he'll be 33 next year and this spinal stenosis is something he will need to play through for the rest of his career. I really have no clue what to expect, which pains me as he's been the face of the franchise for the last decade and is the best pure hitter to ever come up through their system.

Ergo, I'd be fine with the Mets spending whatever they needed to keep Cespedes to ensure they're keeping a potentially potent bat in the lineup for these next few years before their window closes and the pitchers head to free agency.

It's not going to happen, anyway. Even with all of the trades they made this year the payroll barely went up. There are likely still money issues next year. And since they only have until 5 days after the World Series before they need to release him (and therefore can't sign him again til May per league rules) the odds of a deal being reached are close to zero.
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Old 08-22-2015, 07:27 PM   #3190
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He's been ruined by his team's general manager's line of thinking. Ruben Amaro was the guy who couldn't comprehend why Mike Schmidt had a higher obp than Jimmy Rollins despite them having a near equal amount of career hits.
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Old 08-22-2015, 07:40 PM   #3191
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Screech, nobody's posting projected numbers. Are you really saying you can't comprehend that batting average, on base percentage and slugging percentage and that are too hard to quantify over homers and RBI in evaluating a player? You're smarter than that.

And you're using homeruns and RBI as a way to project whether or not Heyward is worth a mega deal ,the same as Frank and I are using his actual rate stats to do the same.

To my handsome friend Vito, I too hate those who come off as holier than thou, which is why I love me some Brian Kenny and Keith Law, and why I despise reading fangraphs articles. If I've come off in such a manner, my dearest apologies, as it is not my intent, at least initially.

I do understand why regaining Cespedes should be a high priority for the Mets this winter. Pairing him with Conforto and Granderson over the next handful of years, with that pitching, could very well place the Mets in contention over the long term. It would also allow them to flip either Granderson or Nimmo for additional help if need be. I can see the upside in resigning him. I just wouldn't fill out a blank check. A 5 year deal in the 20 million range however,that's something they should legitimately try to offer.
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Old 08-22-2015, 08:10 PM   #3192
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Originally Posted by Vito Cruz View Post
Wilpons should hand Cespedes a blank check this offseason.
Baltimore is going to offer him unlimited crabs
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Old 08-22-2015, 08:13 PM   #3193
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Originally Posted by screech View Post
Yeah, lemme ignore stats I can actually quantify in favor of how many projected runs he might very well possibly score over the next two years.

Sabermetrics are not the be-all end all for evaluating talent. HRs and RBIs might not be either, but to not acknowledge them at all is silly.

But be my guest if you want to use "metrics" to justify paying $200 million for an average player.

Ryan Howard was never worth that contract, for the record.
They aren't the be all end all, you're right. If it were that easy, put numbers into a computer and get a world champ and don't pay for a GM. Here's the thing: they give you a new perspective from an unbiased view about intricacies of the game that can't be explained with a stat like RBI. If you roll with a stat like RBI, which is really a situational stat, Delmon Young should have won an MVP and Rickey Henderson is one of the most overrated players of all time.

In the wannabe scouting report I wrote about Heyward, none of that contained numbers. I don't know how you could argue with that if you want to disregard numbers.

Quote:
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As much as I understand/agree with many of the advanced metrics, I liked them much more before people were insufferable douchebags about them. Ever try reading a Bill James interview? The guy has absolutely zero patience for people who don't have the same grasp on sabermetrics that he does. He actively talks down to people who even try to use traditional statistics.

Similarly, I'm pretty sure Brian Kenny (who I love) is going to murder Harold Reynolds in his sleep one of these years.
Really? The MIT/Ivy League math nerd type can be condescending? No way.
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Old 08-22-2015, 08:17 PM   #3194
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Really? The MIT/Ivy League math nerd type can be condescending? No way.
Point proven, fuckbag.
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Old 08-22-2015, 08:23 PM   #3195
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So Heyward is worth 200 mil, right?
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Old 08-22-2015, 08:44 PM   #3196
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YES!
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Old 08-22-2015, 11:18 PM   #3197
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Josh Donaldson has 5 rbi's through 4 innings.

Just give that man the MVP
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Old 08-22-2015, 11:26 PM   #3198
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arbyeyes?
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Old 08-22-2015, 11:29 PM   #3199
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Lol make that 6. Now up to 100 for the year.
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Old 08-22-2015, 11:47 PM   #3200
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#MikeTrout, but Donaldson is a beast.
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