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Old 12-06-2015, 10:25 AM   #4721
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Nats supposedly offered O'Day the same day as well and O'Day took it back to the O's to give them a chance to match.
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Old 12-06-2015, 10:47 AM   #4722
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Good job on his agency to lock him up through age 36. I've stated how I feel about relievers. If O'Day can keep posting 2+ WAR per year over the length of the deal he's worth it. I just question if he CAN, but we'll see.

Meanwhile the Orioles have sunk about $35 million dollars into a maybe catcher, a mediocre first baseman and a reliever. Feel like they could've made much more tangible upgrades had they not offered Wieters the qualifying offer, and picked up Trumbo and O'Day.

You'd think with the Orioles finding Johnson, Hunter and now O'Day as originally bargain acquisitions to. dominate innings they'd be wiser with where their money goes.

They could pick up Pedro Alvarez and Chris Carter combined at what their paying Trumbo and get the same, maybe better offense in a platoon. I don't know if guys who except qualifying offers are protected from trades or not, but if not, they should shop the shit out of Wieters and take that $16 million and apply it elsewhere, like the corner outfield. Getting an Alex Gordon or Ben Zobrist would be a big upgrade for them. Gordon is actually a stellar fit.

I dunno. Feel like the Orioles just lack an actual plan.
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Old 12-06-2015, 10:54 AM   #4723
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Mets supposedly now willing to guarantee a 4th year for Zobrist. I initially was against it figuring I didn't want the money he'd make on the back end of the deal to impact their ability to extend/re-sign any of the starters. But now that I've seen how batshit insane the open market is for SPs, I don't need to worry about extending any of the starters because there's little reason for any of them to agree to do so. I don't blame them.

I already assumed Harvey would be gone by 2019 anyway, but with the other 4 guys. If they develop as expected a couple if not all of them could be in line for 9-figure contracts assuming the open market only gets more and more expensive. I question if this front office would ever pump that kind of money into a starter again after the Johan Santana deal. But even if they do, it's tough to see them re-signing more than one of them.

Basically...fuck what Ben Zobrist is making in 2019. Just do what you can to win in the next few years because there's every reason to expect the window to close once the starters hit the market.
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Old 12-06-2015, 11:17 AM   #4724
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Yeah I wouldn't be giving Zobrist 4 years guaranteed. Don't the Mets have a second base prospect who's also pretty good? They should go with that and sink their money into a younger free agent who is more likely to be worth the money at the end of the deal, like Justin Upton.

I like Zobrist but not for four years. Three? Sure.
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Old 12-06-2015, 12:09 PM   #4725
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Yeah Dilson Herrera is meant to be pretty good. If they don't upgrade 2B this offseason, he's likely to be the starting 2B on Opening Day.

Thing is Zobrist isn't strictly a 2B. If they want to give Herrera a look, Zobrist can play basically any other position competently. Pretty sure that's where most of his value comes into play.
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Old 12-06-2015, 12:42 PM   #4726
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Ryan Madson to the A's. 3-years, $22 mil.

Sheesh, west coast grabbing all the arms right now.
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Old 12-06-2015, 01:11 PM   #4727
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Christ. He was making 850k base with the Royals, and cashed in for $7 plus mil per year at 35? I'm stunned that relief pitchers are getting this kind of multi year investments in their 30s.

Mind boggling.

Back too Vito...Zobrist used to be able to play multiple positions but with the knee issues he's had of late and his age I think 2nd and 3rd are more likely where he's best suited. Maybe some outfield but I'm not sure he's gonna bring the same value there going forward. Defensive runs saved per baseball reference have him at either 0 or less runs below average at every position he played this year.
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Old 12-06-2015, 01:20 PM   #4728
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Madsen was the only hittable guy in KCs bullpen. Not a good pickup at that price. Happy the Jays didn't go all in on him.
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Old 12-06-2015, 01:59 PM   #4729
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If by hittable you mean a 200 batting average against then sure. He didn't punch out a ton of guys though and that could change. I agree the rate is a lot.
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Old 12-06-2015, 02:19 PM   #4730
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I'm a Ryan Madson fan, but goddamn that's a lotta money for him.
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Old 12-06-2015, 02:26 PM   #4731
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I guess the O's/Darren O'Day deal ain't set in stone yet. Physical ain't done yet.

Potential of being another Grant Balfour situation here.
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Old 12-06-2015, 03:03 PM   #4732
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Dodgers keep Chase Utley around on a 1-year deal.
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Old 12-06-2015, 07:46 PM   #4733
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If by hittable you mean a 200 batting average against then sure. He didn't punch out a ton of guys though and that could change. I agree the rate is a lot.
lol didn't KC sign him to a minor league contract last year?

I think he and Tony Sipp are a little over rated, of the sample size i've seen of them. Analytics only means so much.
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Old 12-06-2015, 10:16 PM   #4734
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Is Sipp still in the majors? Haven't heard of him in a bit.

Analytics mean a lot. They give you an unbiased, objective and sometimes merciless opinion on a player based on fact, not hyperbole like "he's feared" or "a club house presence". They'd also tell the Athletics that a 35 year old reliever on a multi year is probably a bad idea
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Old 12-06-2015, 10:36 PM   #4735
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Billy Beane probably meant to swipe left on that deal but he got distracted and swept right so now he's going on that date.
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Old 12-07-2015, 12:00 AM   #4736
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Dodgers sign Hisashi Iwakuma to a 3-year deal.
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Old 12-07-2015, 12:02 AM   #4737
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Dodgers aren't fucking around now...reportedly getting close on a trade with the Reds for Aroldis Chapman. Good on them if it transpires...Jensen and Chapman would be an absolutely retarded back end of the bullpen.
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Old 12-07-2015, 12:40 AM   #4738
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Is Sipp still in the majors? Haven't heard of him in a bit.

Analytics mean a lot. They give you an unbiased, objective and sometimes merciless opinion on a player based on fact, not hyperbole like "he's feared" or "a club house presence". They'd also tell the Athletics that a 35 year old reliever on a multi year is probably a bad idea
They are certainly useful but not the be all end all.
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Old 12-07-2015, 12:41 AM   #4739
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All fine and dandy but they just lost their second best pitcher, who wasn't far off from being as good as their best pitcher.

I mean, Iwakuma is a decent piece but they need a big time starter like yesterday. Chapman is great but I'm curious as to what they'd give up for him. Pretty sure he's gonna be a free agent and I'm not keen on how strong the Dodgers' current system is.
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Old 12-07-2015, 12:45 AM   #4740
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They are certainly useful but not the be all end all.
To which I'd ask is there really a better way to get a fair opinion on anything outside of taking all the information that's been compiled and creating a strongly supported idea of what it is you're really looking at?

I mean, people don't use intangibles to but cars. You wanna know the mileage, gas efficiency, resale value, performance history, availability of parts and how like vehicles faired in comparison. You wouldn't just but a car because it's nice or because "it drives great" or "has guts" right? Wouldn't you want to verify the statements first with tangible evidence?
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Old 12-07-2015, 01:08 AM   #4741
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well i mean for instance, they like to look past the rbi, but if ur in a spot in the line up where you're supposed to get 100 rbis, and you're able to drive in 130, one can assume you're effective in your roll on the team. I don't need to see somebody's WAR. You can also just tell when a guy is clutch and when a guy is a dude who racks up his numbers when he's up or down 6-1.
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Old 12-07-2015, 01:56 AM   #4742
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Matt Kemp drove in 100 runs and he was pretty much average as a hitter. RBI is a stat of opportunity. For instance, Josh Donaldson drove in far more runs than Mike Trout did, but Donaldson also 70 some odd more at bats with runners on. It's a context dependant stat that gives the hitter credit for a situation he didn't create.

RBI is probably the most overused and uninformative stat for hitters I can think of. It's not as bad as pitchers wins. But it's pretty useless in evaluating actual performance. Nolan Arenado drove in more runs than Bryce Harper and I highly doubt anyone outside of homer Colorado fans felt Arenado should be right up there with Harper in mvp consideration or just overall offensive production.

And how can differentiate when a guy is clutch and when he isn't? There have been countless attempts to try and find some tangible skill in guys being clutch but the result always came down the clutch player just being good all the time. Guys don't randomly "get up" or a see an abnormal boost in their skill set based on the context within the game. If you actually look at players who are considered "clutch" you'll find the overwhelmingly majority of them are good anyways.

Clutch situations is also bias. You're unlikely to see the bottom of the order guys get as many big opportunities. The best hitters hit at the top and middle of the order. Of course they're going to seem more clutch. They hit with guys in base and have more at bats in general than half of the lineup.

Brandon Phillips drove in 100 plus runs in 2013. Based on your assertion hee did his job as expected or better. Based on fact, he was a below average hitter who was the beneficiary of hitting behind on base machines Shin Soo Choo and Joey Votto. Phillips epitomized what those emphasizing analytics had been suggesting all along; RBI are context dependant and an adequate or less hitter will still tally them at high rate given the guys ahead of him consistently reach base.

If you want access how productive a hitter is from at bat to at bat strip away everything that is outside of their control and just look at the slash line of average, in base and slugging. It's the most basic yet still telling set of rate stats that can give you pretty accurate indication of whether or not a hitter is actually any good.

Pitchers? Era is good, runs against per 9, strikeouts per 9, etc.

Rate stats are always more indicative of what is actually going on and of what you can expect from that player going forward.
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Old 12-07-2015, 06:05 AM   #4743
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You can still look at RBI with some value because it shows that a guy can cash in on the opportunities he gets. Someone has to get those runs in, after all. Coupling it with say, average with runners in scoring position, can give some more context to it, but it shouldn't be completely ignored.
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Old 12-07-2015, 07:14 AM   #4744
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Soria is back where he started with the Royals. 3 years, $25 million with a mutual option for a 4th year.

Herrera, Soria, Davis. Good lord.
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Old 12-07-2015, 07:32 AM   #4745
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Because that's what KC really needed: bullpen help lol

I like the signing. He's basically "replacing" Madson and he's better so good job, Royals. That bullpen should be fun to watch.
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Old 12-07-2015, 08:56 AM   #4746
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Damian Rey View Post
I like Zobrist but not for four years. Three? Sure.
Forgot to loop back to this. I really disagree with this. If Zobrist is good enough for three years, he's good enough for four. If you think he can be a key cog to get you back to the playoffs in 2016-18, you shouldn't fret about the fourth year. Not when you're a contending ballclub looking for a piece to get you back to October.

Cuddyer is gone after this year. Granderson (whose contract no longer seems like an albatross after a great 2015, but still) is gone after 2017. Duda is probably gone after 2017 as well. Aside from Wright, it's not like the 2019 Mets are projected to be filled with old dudes.

Besides that, the Mets nearly always have to give an extra year if they want to land a big free agent signing. If they become an annual playoff team, it'll be easier to attract marquee free agents when they want to splurge.
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Old 12-07-2015, 09:01 AM   #4747
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If the Mets can land Zobrist and say, Denard Span to provide them some top of the order speed and a left-handed complement to Lagares, I think I'd really like the look of their lineup. It wouldn't be as strong as it was down the stretch this year with Murphy and Cespedes, but it'd still be a stronger overall roster than they had on Opening Day 2015 which should mean less offensive struggles in the first three months of the season.
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Old 12-07-2015, 10:07 AM   #4748
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Under the radar but Tigers signed Saltalamacchia to a one-year deal for just above minimum (with Marlins eating most of his salary)

Agreed to two-year deal with Mark Lowe



Really liking the moves Avila has been making.
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Old 12-07-2015, 12:07 PM   #4749
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Dodgers get Aroldis "The Flamethrower" Chapman from the Reds for 2 prospects.
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Old 12-07-2015, 03:00 PM   #4750
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Cubbies re-sign Trevor Cahill. 1-year, $4.25 mil.

Mariners acquire Wade Miley from the Red Sox.

Tigers and Mark Lowe agree to a 2-year, $13 mil. pact.
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Old 12-07-2015, 03:05 PM   #4751
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Quote:
Originally Posted by screech View Post
You can still look at RBI with some value because it shows that a guy can cash in on the opportunities he gets. Someone has to get those runs in, after all. Coupling it with say, average with runners in scoring position, can give some more context to it, but it shouldn't be completely ignored.
Yeah it tells you if a guy is useful in a spot. It doesn't telll you everything but it tells you enough.

However a guy cam be great with just 70 rbis in the middle of the order and it could have to do with the rest of the team and that is when the analytics come into play. They compliment the intangibles, they don't eliminate them.
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Old 12-07-2015, 03:57 PM   #4752
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gorgeous Dale Newstead View Post
Yeah it tells you if a guy is useful in a spot. It doesn't telll you everything but it tells you enough.

However a guy cam be great with just 70 rbis in the middle of the order and it could have to do with the rest of the team and that is when the analytics come into play. They compliment the intangibles, they don't eliminate them.
Well yeah, then you need to dig a little bit, which is why I brought up average w/RISP (I guess BABIP works there too, but I don't know a whole lot about that so I could be wrong).

It also helps (somewhat) to have an RBI guy - or just a generally "feared hitter" (for lack of a better term) - in the order to make the pitcher sweat a bit and change the plan. Because with two on in a tie game, he's going to pitch Josh Donaldson differently than Ryan Howard.

Maybe a bad example, but seeing Howard K 3-5 times a game in key spots starts to wear lol
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Old 12-07-2015, 05:14 PM   #4753
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Quote:
Originally Posted by road doggy dogg View Post
Under the radar but Tigers signed Saltalamacchia to a one-year deal for just above minimum (with Marlins eating most of his salary)

Agreed to two-year deal with Mark Lowe



Really liking the moves Avila has been making.
Saltalamacchia could be the best value of all the FA signings if he gets hot.... good luck with Mark Lowe though.....
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Old 12-07-2015, 06:30 PM   #4754
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I just pointed out how bad Brandon Phillips was despite having a 100 plus RBI season. If you looked solely at RBI you would think he had a good year. When you actually look at his own context neutral numbers you find that he was actually below average as a hitter and his RBI tally are completely misleading and, in his case, completely useless in observing his overall production.

Pitchers pitching differently based on "fear" or lineup protection is largely false. The only thing ever determined when it's been studied at length is the "protected" batter might draw an extra walk or two or put an extra ball in play but the results on batted balls or overall outcomes of an bat weren't even marginally effected based on perceived "protection".

RISP is also a context dependant stat. It's also pretty useless. Matt Kemp drove in 100 runs. Based on what you guys are saying, he's an RBI guy and is adequately doing his job. Yet, he as barely league average offensively and with runners in scoring position was actually less than league average. It wasn't dramatically less but less is less. He hit an uninspired 270 with risp. Yet the 100 RBI lead you to believe he does his job or has some sort of skill in the position.

He really doesn't. He is just another example of a mediocre hitter slotted in one of the two best lineup spots to drive in runs, and league averaged his way to a high RBI count that doesn't tell you he actually wasn't very good at bat for at bat.

I get RBI has been staple of baseball stats that we've been conditioned to place importance in but it really isn't an important stat any more than pitcher wins. The guy driving in a run is just the beneficiary of a prime lineup position.

The Yankees, the Rangers, the Astros, and the Nationals all failed to have even on player hit the heralded 100 RBI mark. 4 of the top ten teams in total runs scored. Two of this teams were in the top 3 in runs. But no 100 RBI guy. The mvp of the national league fell short. He wasn't anywhere near the lead. You wouldn't discredit him for not even being in the top ten in RBI right? You wouldn't discredit Mike Trout because at least ten guys finished with more RBI right? Would you say those guys were better than him?

Gorgeous just stated "it could have to do with rest of the team" if a great middle of the order bat only drives 70. That's exactly what an RBI is. It's a "what the rest of my team did prior to me getting an at bat" stat.
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Old 12-07-2015, 07:40 PM   #4755
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Kris Bryant has filed a formal grievance against the Cubs claiming that they intentionally waited until April 17th to call him to the big leagues. He accrued 171 days of service, a full big league season from a service standpoint is 172 days. Ergo, the Cubs bought an entire extra year of cost-controlled service by waiting to call him up.

I mean...it's pretty blatant it was done intentionally. And I don't blame the Cubs one bit. It's the smart move to make and not having Bryant for those 2 weeks really didn't make a big difference.

I can't see how this grievance goes anywhere. If you award Bryant extra service time, you create a slippery slope. If the MLBPA wants to take issue with this, they need to work out something for the next CBA.
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Old 12-07-2015, 07:41 PM   #4756
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Maikel Franco filed a similar grievance against the Phillies today, too.
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Old 12-07-2015, 07:43 PM   #4757
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vito Cruz View Post
Kris Bryant has filed a formal grievance against the Cubs claiming that they intentionally waited until April 17th to call him to the big leagues. He accrued 171 days of service, a full big league season from a service standpoint is 172 days. Ergo, the Cubs bought an entire extra year of cost-controlled service by waiting to call him up.

I mean...it's pretty blatant it was done intentionally. And I don't blame the Cubs one bit. It's the smart move to make and not having Bryant for those 2 weeks really didn't make a big difference.

I can't see how this grievance goes anywhere. If you award Bryant extra service time, you create a slippery slope. If the MLBPA wants to take issue with this, they need to work out something for the next CBA.
lol yeah, during that time EVERYBODY was lauding the Cubs for doing exactly that, for exactly that reason. Why wait until now to make a stink about it?
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Old 12-07-2015, 07:46 PM   #4758
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nicky Fives View Post
Saltalamacchia could be the best value of all the FA signings if he gets hot.... good luck with Mark Lowe though.....
I originally heard the Lowe deal was 2 years / $6.5M but was corrected to be $6.5M per year for 2 years.

Not a huge huge commitment for him (considering what the market seems to be like atm) so I like it. Plus, the Tigers' bullpen has nowhere to go but absolutely up.
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Old 12-07-2015, 07:49 PM   #4759
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Quote:
Originally Posted by road doggy dogg View Post
lol yeah, during that time EVERYBODY was lauding the Cubs for doing exactly that, for exactly that reason. Why wait until now to make a stink about it?
Yeah. No idea why he'd have waited this long to complain, it just makes Bryant look bad. I'd suspect Boras is in his ear much as he was in Harvey's year during that whole innings dilemma late in the season.

Boras could give a fuck less what the public perception of his players is. He just wants them to do whatever they can to get paid the most.
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Old 12-07-2015, 07:50 PM   #4760
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Like honestly, Avila has been great this offseason. Basically getting rid of all the pieces that didn't work (non-tendered AlAl and FELIZ NAVIDAD, traded away Krol) and making small moves to bolster the solid pieces (Wilson, Hardy) already there. Obviously not going to be the KC 'pen but should be improved over last two years.

Plus with that nasty 1-5 lineup (Maybin-Kinsler-Miggy-VMart-JD) + whatever LF they sign (Gordon or Cespedes in a perfect world), pitching will be an afterthought (wishful thinking)
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