AEW Rampage 10/15: Bryan Danielson vs Minoro Suzuki

[Bad News Gertner]

Originally Posted by Destor to the idea of *if* 18-49 matters it matters chiefly because the guys paying the bills value it. their position on the topic functions as a fiat currency. same with neilson as a whole. its doesnt represent what the market actually values (noted by the continuous diminished returns from the ad spots from even as recent as 10 years ago.) to advertisers the metric is clearly paramount because they just dont have an alternative; and thats reflected in NBC walking from neilson only to be followed by neilson rapidly dropping their going rates (if the neilson data was truly valuable the market would have reflected that.) if that moment nielson acknowledged through action that the networks are more valuable to nielson than neilson is to the networks. neilson is no longer an accurate descriptor of viewer habits. its junk data. you dont learn factual information from neilson data. its not even remotely a scientific analysis. it remains however the industry standard and will continue to dictate market responses in spite of it being total rubbish. at this time with the near total shift of how households consume media we have virtually no clue who is watching what and its in that end that ratings are completely stupid to discuss. when we 1.1 million watched X understand that its barely more than a guess at this point. the neilson method no longer works. we are free from conventional shackles of the television standard and a ratings system that adhears to it is ludicrous. what we cant do is discredit entirely that these networks are valuing the data and that it will impact contracts in the future HOWEVER this future is likely to be short lived. last month neilson lost its accreditation Due to how inacurate it is and is only being able to used on a case by case basis (something im shocked crippy didnt bring up) AND nbc is organizing a coalition to create a modern (and accurate) system that if successful will completely usurp neilson by giving actual honest data.

Well said. I have an android box and watch all my shows/ppv on it.

[weather vane]

I watch AEW on streaming sites on my phone a lot of the times. I’m sure a ton of people do. I wish there was a way to track everything somehow. Impossible but yeah..

[Destor]

Originally Posted by weather vane I watch AEW on streaming sites on my phone a lot of the times. I’m sure a ton of people do. I wish there was a way to track everything somehow. Impossible but yeah..

theres some tracking on that but its limited and moreover it can be included in over night data (and that we even use over night data is a joke in of itself because who the fuck watches things when the tv demands in 2021...)

[weather vane]

I don’t watch Dynamite til Thursday mostly. Poker nights Wednesday unfortunately! weather vane loves gambling. Fucking loves it.

[Triple A]

Originally Posted by Mr. Nerfect At the end of the day, even with key demos being a 1:1, which they’re not (which even BigCrippy would have to admit, which is the issue he’s constantly avoiding), AEW would still need to double WWE to be as profitable to TNT with their revenue split. So not sure why all this celebrating until AEW actually makes WarnerMedia as much as WWE generates for NBC Universal/FOX. It’s bullshit posturing.

The networks that WWE is on also pay WWE way more money. Idk how the math works out but I wonder now

[weather vane]

Will be interesting when AEW’s TV contract comes up. When is that?

[Triple A]

It was extended until the end of 2023, with an option for Turner for 2024 at a "significantly increased price"

Also idk if they still do ad revenue sharing with the new deal they signed in 2020... that was their deal when they first started but idk if it still is

[weather vane]

They seem to have a good relationship and value each other. Can’t see them going anywhere.

[BigCrippyZ]

Originally Posted by Triple A It was extended until the end of 2023, with an option for Turner for 2024 at a "significantly increased price" Also idk if they still do ad revenue sharing with the new deal they signed in 2020... that was their deal when they first started but idk if it still is

IIRC, it’s a guaranteed fee of about $40 million a year plus a smaller % of ad revenues.

[Lock Jaw]

Guys, I just read that the demos of this thread are not doing good. Please liven it up some more.

[Destor]

18-49 males love boobs. get on it lockjaw

[ron the dial]

we need lots more relatable RP anna jay content

[Destor]

he didnt post pics. 3/10

[ron the dial]

better to be on the safe side with RP posting pics in wrestling. it could turn into a black cock debacle real quick.

[DaveWadding]

Originally Posted by Weapon X better to be on the safe side with RP posting pics in wrestling. it could turn into a black cock debacle real quick.

Debcockle

[Mr. Nerfect]

Originally Posted by Destor to the idea of *if* 18-49 matters it matters chiefly because the guys paying the bills value it. their position on the topic functions as a fiat currency. same with neilson as a whole. its doesnt represent what the market actually values (noted by the continuous diminished returns from the ad spots from even as recent as 10 years ago.) to advertisers the metric is clearly paramount because they just dont have an alternative; and thats reflected in NBC walking from neilson only to be followed by neilson rapidly dropping their going rates (if the neilson data was truly valuable the market would have reflected that.) if that moment nielson acknowledged through action that the networks are more valuable to nielson than neilson is to the networks. neilson is no longer an accurate descriptor of viewer habits. its junk data. you dont learn factual information from neilson data. its not even remotely a scientific analysis. it remains however the industry standard and will continue to dictate market responses in spite of it being total rubbish. at this time with the near total shift of how households consume media we have virtually no clue who is watching what and its in that end that ratings are completely stupid to discuss. when we 1.1 million watched X understand that its barely more than a guess at this point. the neilson method no longer works. we are free from conventional shackles of the television standard and a ratings system that adhears to it is ludicrous. what we cant do is discredit entirely that these networks are valuing the data and that it will impact contracts in the future HOWEVER this future is likely to be short lived. last month neilson lost its accreditation Due to how inacurate it is and is only being able to used on a case by case basis (something im shocked crippy didnt bring up) AND nbc is organizing a coalition to create a modern (and accurate) system that if successful will completely usurp neilson by giving actual honest data.

Great post.

My stance has been that the ratings matter as much as important decision makers want them to matter. A great rating, as they see it, is going to be used as justification to keep you. A number they don’t value can be used to hang you. It can even be the same number interpreted differently. Is 750k good or bad? Depends on who’s looking at it and how.

Had no clue about NBC developing their own methods.

I’m surprised with so much being digital and the technological advancements that I assume have been in most houses for some time that there isn’t some sort of instant feedback when it comes to viewing habits and the like. I assumed this would be the case when my parents got upgraded to digital cable in, like, 2006 or whenever. I just assumed FOXTEL knew exactly how many people were watching one thing at one time.

Nielsen themselves state a 10% margin of error. That’s fucking huge. Rampage may have gotten 662k this week or 540k. That’s a huge chunk of audience that it just doesn’t know how to count. And what if you just watch wrestling at your parents’ house because you don’t have cable. No sense getting it for wrestling. Or if you watch it with friends? Just a really wonky way to measure viewing habits, as you said.

[Destor]

its reasonable to say that more people watch tv content from non traditional means than traditional who are between 18-49

[Destor]

if it turned out the true neilson margin of error was 50% it wouldnt shock me. we get a new method installed only to find the real winner on friday nights in judge judy reruns

[Destor]

neilson is so inaccurate we cant reasonably say we know anything from an empirical stand point. especially in the "key demo" who are the least likely to be using a neilson friendly viewing habit.

[Destor]

even having a conversation on tuesday about who watched raw this week is insane to me. i could be weeks behind on a show at any given time and be SUPER invested in said show. the new metric should be an aggregate score based on a 30ish day cycle. we just dont consume content like we used to

[Destor]

more over i may watch part through one service and part through another. or in the case of wrestling just consume segments. and i certainly never view a commercial with is a whole other can of worms. the only ad spots that are going to reach me are the in-content-ad-spots. its just a huge mess with a bunch of old guys desperately clinging to the corspe of a long dead model.

[BigCrippyZ]

Originally Posted by Mr. Nerfect Great post. My stance has been that the ratings matter as much as important decision makers want them to matter. A great rating, as they see it, is going to be used as justification to keep you. A number they don’t value can be used to hang you. It can even be the same number interpreted differently. Is 750k good or bad? Depends on who’s looking at it and how. Had no clue about NBC developing their own methods. I’m surprised with so much being digital and the technological advancements that I assume have been in most houses for some time that there isn’t some sort of instant feedback when it comes to viewing habits and the like. I assumed this would be the case when my parents got upgraded to digital cable in, like, 2006 or whenever. I just assumed FOXTEL knew exactly how many people were watching one thing at one time. Nielsen themselves state a 10% margin of error. That’s fucking huge. Rampage may have gotten 662k this week or 540k. That’s a huge chunk of audience that it just doesn’t know how to count. And what if you just watch wrestling at your parents’ house because you don’t have cable. No sense getting it for wrestling. Or if you watch it with friends? Just a really wonky way to measure viewing habits, as you said.

Yeah, but the reality is, every advertiser is still using Nielsen data to determine their ad rates. Every network is still using Nielsen data behind the scenes in everything they do, they're just supplementing it with other data sources, which has also been common for two decades now. I've done three TV deals and two advertiser deals with multiple networks in the last month alone, every network and advertiser was using Nielsen data as their primary source of data to determine the deal structure. I know for a fact that NBC is still using Nielsen data. I'm in the process of doing a deal with them for a new show next year and they're basing almost the entire contract's pay structure on what new shows typically get in ad rates due to, you guessed it, key demo ratings from Nielsen data. The fact is, despite their flaws (no one says they're not flawed, but that's not what were talking about), Nielsen (not unlike WWE when people think of wrestling) is the gold standard and because of their history, finances, and influence, they're not going to go away anytime soon. That's why the ratings and demos matter, because the business and industries say they do.

[Triple A]

Originally Posted by Destor neilson is so inaccurate we cant reasonably say we know anything from an empirical stand point. especially in the "key demo" who are the least likely to be using a neilson friendly viewing habit.

Streaming services are included in the Nielsen numbers as far as I know

Streaming viewers could maybe even be more likely to be tracked by them because most streaming services have an option for it in the settings... I use YouTube TV and it's tracked by Nielsen. Had DirecTV Now before and it was also tracked

[Triple A]

Originally Posted by Triple A The networks that WWE is on also pay WWE way more money. Idk how the math works out but I wonder now

NBC/USA apparently pays $265 million a year for Raw... Turner pays like $60 million for Dynamite and Rampage together... Dynamite creeping up on Raw's 18-49 numbers... One network seems to be getting a much better deal

[weather vane]

They don’t track like the free streaming sites. I use em regularly. So many of them, how could they? I’m sure tons of people my age use em.

[Mr. Nerfect]

Originally Posted by Triple A NBC/USA apparently pays $265 million a year for Raw... Turner pays like $60 million for Dynamite and Rampage together... Dynamite creeping up on Raw's 18-49 numbers... One network seems to be getting a much better deal

The WWE also has global presence and brand awareness, generates less explicit content (this is huge), has a roster of diverse wrestlers from all over the planet and appeals way more to women and people that might have grandkids. There’s also other delivery mechanisms to keep in mind (may not mean much in the immediate sense for advertisers, but people being aware of brands you’re associating with themselves is relative), and the scope of WWE in general. Then there’s the ad split to keep in mind. And that if AEW loses their 18-49 (known for being frivolous, so if you’re going to just assume they are still primary spenders...), what do they have to fall back on?

I’m sorry, but it’s insane to think AEW is coming anywhere near touching WWE in total value through their advertising appeal.

AEW has got a good chance of renegotiating with a smaller network that uses them to spike their awareness and popularity. Or with Turner if they haven’t crashed and burnt by then. But to think they are a threat to WWE hegemony right now ignores so many other factors.

[Mr. Nerfect]

I’m having trouble embedding tweets from my phone. But here’s Meltzer downplaying the difference between TNT and FS1.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1450657276130316292

This links to a clip from April 2019 where Meltzer said “Don’t look at the number on the left, look at the number on the right” and basically shat all over the idea of Raw leaning on the demos.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1450693723881418756

The “war” as framed by him (it’s barely a skirmish) is a false narrative. Do not buy into it.

[Mr. Nerfect]

The NFL is releasing media about their overall viewership. Someone better tell them how to close ad deals.

[Mr. Nerfect]

It’s almost like entities lead with numbers they want to use to make themselves look good, and ignore numbers that aren’t that impressive when put into context.

[Mr. Nerfect]

An article I found from 2018 that talks what I perceive to be some pretty common sense. I was asking Google if advertisers still care most about the 18-49 demo in 2021. But of course these people are “morons” who don’t have any experience in media:

http://www.vox.com/platform/amp/2018...xplained-18-49

Tl;dr — Advertisers and TV networks valued 18-49 because of the reasons Destor has laid out: habits and your time left...alive, quite frankly. Living conditions, societal/cultural changes and economic factors regarding the cable industry and the number of people from each demographic watching live has opened perspectives on this. Stable live viewership has got value to advertisers, regardless of age.

And apparently Netflix doesn’t track age so urgently, because a lot of older consumers foot the bill for younger consumers, and vice versa. These changes in viewing habits could also be reflected in cable. For example, I enjoy watching a show with my dad on cable. I’m not about to get it and have him over for dinner to watch it. I go and visit him since he’s already got it. I am in the 18-49 demo, he is not. It’d be counted as a 50+ viewer, but it is 1:1 in that house. 1:2 when my brother is over and watches too. By the way, my dad is not overly well to do (I’d say we grew up middle-class). He’s got way more disposable income than anybody in my age bracket that I know. That could be a cultural thing as Australians are looking to buy food, pay rent/mortgages, gym memberships, streaming services, balance a social life, etc. But if I were to guess who was going to spend $1000 on some wacky thing for his kitchen, I know who it would be.

[Damian Rey 2.0]

Originally Posted by Triple A NBC/USA apparently pays $265 million a year for Raw... Turner pays like $60 million for Dynamite and Rampage together... Dynamite creeping up on Raw's 18-49 numbers... One network seems to be getting a much better deal

This is why the idea that AEW isn’t competition or shouldn’t be worried about if you’re WWE is false. Even if they’re not talking viewers away, they’re posting comparable numbers in the demo that’s currently valued. If that demo being valued as high as it is doesn’t change, and WWE doesn’t pull away, what kind of bargaining power will they have when they’re costing 4x as much as AEW’s entire weekly tv deal? Of course they’re still the far more valuable product but 4x as much with similar numbers in the demo advertisers want? What network or cable company would pay that?

Maybe WWE gets to keep its current rate but AEW could have some more leverage for a raise when they current deal is up, all because they can point to 18-49 and say they’re a comparable product.

[Destor]

Originally Posted by BigCrippyZ Yeah, but the reality is, every advertiser is still using Nielsen data to determine their ad rates. Every network is still using Nielsen data behind the scenes in everything they do, they're just supplementing it with other data sources, which has also been common for two decades now. I've done three TV deals and two advertiser deals with multiple networks in the last month alone, every network and advertiser was using Nielsen data as their primary source of data to determine the deal structure. I know for a fact that NBC is still using Nielsen data. I'm in the process of doing a deal with them for a new show next year and they're basing almost the entire contract's pay structure on what new shows typically get in ad rates due to, you guessed it, key demo ratings from Nielsen data. The fact is, despite their flaws (no one says they're not flawed, but that's not what were talking about), Nielsen (not unlike WWE when people think of wrestling) is the gold standard and because of their history, finances, and influence, they're not going to go away anytime soon. That's why the ratings and demos matter, because the business and industries say they do.

i covered every word of this in my post...

[XL]

Originally Posted by weather vane They don’t track like the free streaming sites. I use em regularly. So many of them, how could they? I’m sure tons of people my age use em.

What value do you (or I) have to advertisers/network execs? We’re not interacting with their platform. We’re stealing content. We don’t add anything to their bottom line unless you then go on to purchase other items produced by the company. What favour are we doing AEW or anyone else by watching on a free stream? We’re not counted anyware.

[Sting Fan]

Fucking nerds and your ratings. Just watch the oiled up muscle men slap one another in undies ffs.

[drave]

Originally Posted by Sting Fan Fucking nerds and your ratings. Just watch the oiled up muscle men slap one another in undies ffs.

#POTY

[Fignuts]

Originally Posted by Destor i love strong style. always have. strong style with king road booking is probably my favorite kind of wrestling. 2nd would be memphis or mid south. there's a wild gap between those two things of course. which to me should note just how varried wrestling can, and use to, be. its all US indy now. wwe/aew/njpw its all us indy. just with different shades. some lean slightly more into strong style. others slightly more into lucha. but it becomes this amalgamation that isnt consistent to itself. it creates a thematic issue where the entire card should be getting concepts over and tha isnt possible with this structural vomit that is the modern product. ive been wanting to broach this topic as a deep dive thread but every time i do it almost feels more like a book so i stop lol

Tanahashi, Suzuki, Ishii, and Goto are the only ones left I'd say, whose styles are built off of classic strong style. Even then, how much of that you get from them also depends on who they're working with.

Last I checked AJPW was the best promotion to watch for classic style puro matches. Lots of big beefy dudes staffing the shit out of each other with Kento Miyahara being the small athletic ace. Been a while since I tuned in though so I'm not sure where they're at right now.

I didn't end up watching the whole Danielson vs suzuki match. My love for Japanese wrestling wrestling is well documented here, and as such I'm naturally a big fan of strike exchanges. But this just felt so hammy. Like they were winking at the camera the whole time. There's an intensity to strike exchanges that makes it work, and feel realistic that a couple guys would just stand there and let each other lay them in. This wasn't that. This looked like two guys having a bit of fun in a way that ponders to a specific audience, at the expense of realism.

[weather vane]

Originally Posted by XL What value do you (or I) have to advertisers/network execs? We’re not interacting with their platform. We’re stealing content. We don’t add anything to their bottom line unless you then go on to purchase other items produced by the company. What favour are we doing AEW or anyone else by watching on a free stream? We’re not counted anyware.

Well I spread the word. Interact on social media. Will attend shows. Watch on TV occasionally. Bought a few PPVs.

[GD]

[xrodmuc316]

Originally Posted by Sting Fan Fucking nerds and your ratings. Just watch the oiled up muscle men slap one another in undies ffs.

Do we talk about ratings because we are nerds, OR does a Nerd skew ratings from week to week so he can always brag he is winning while paying fake journalists to support his bullshit, leading us non nerds to have to continually point out said bullshit because it is such blatant chicanery?

I cant WAIT until Tony Khan sees what Booker said about him, spaz out and react by continuing not to push black men.

[Sting Fan]

Originally Posted by xrodmuc316 Do we talk about ratings because we are nerds,

Its this... its so clearly this.