MLB 2006 Season Thread

[The Miz]

Originally Posted by BCWWF Emphasizing the word "can't" is a VEL tactic. It is rediculous to think that all players react the same under pressure because it simply isn't like that. Some players thrive under it and might bat slightly better than they normally do. Other batters might struggle to put the ball into play when the pressure is on. It's the same with pitchers. Joe Nathan is one of the top closers in the league when he is under the pressure of a save situation. But if he is not pitching in a save situation, his ERA is drastically higher. Or are batters the only ones that this rule of "clutch" refers to? By saying that players react the same while batting in the bottom of the ninth, down by one in the World Series, as they do in the fourth inning of a blowout against Kansas City midseason. David Ortiz has had numerous opportunities to make clutch hits, and he has a lot of success late in games. A lot of other players have had opportunities to make clutch hits and don't have as much overall success. Do you really believe that if you looked at a random sample of regular major leaguers that their stats would be similar in all of those different situations like Ortiz is? Why do you think they have stats like "AVG w/ RISP" or "w/ bases loaded"? It is because there is more pressure there, and not all players react the same.

Again, sample size. I don't have Nathan's splits but I assume because he's a closer 95% of his appearances come in save situations. If a guy has a 2.00 ERA in 60 innings and a 4.00 in 10 innings there is nothing you can draw from that.

The reason it's harder to hit in the 9th inning of the World Series is 1. their best pitcher is on the mound 2. he is not going to fuck around. If it's a 4 or 5 run lead the pitcher might just be trying to throw strikes and not risk walking people, and it may be easier to hit. But in the 9th of a World Series its their best with his best.

I don't think that if you took every players stats in different situations they would be the same, because the sample sizes would not be the same. But if every player in baseball had 1000 AB's in every possible situation I guarantee you there would be no players who hit SIGNIFICANTLY better or worse.

Every player has better stats with the bases loaded. The infield is in and you know they are not going to walk you. The reason they have stats like BA w/RISP and w/bases loaded is the same reason the first stat for batters is batting average and the first stat for pitchers in win/loss--MLB refuses to move on to stats that are more accurate after all the research that has been done since the late 70's.