MLB 2006 Season Thread

[ct2k]

lol I say that but in actual fact when you add it all up Radke has been pretty consistent year on year, solid if you will

[BCWWF]

Radke could very well be done for the season, but even if he is, he was one of the top pitchers in the AL for the two or three months that he pitched with the shoulder injury. He was more consistant than Johan in that time. It was just the most rediculous column I've ever read.

[BCWWF]

By Rob Neyer
ESPN Insider
Archive


For much of the season, even as the Yankees were thriving despite the losses of Hideki Matsui and Gary Sheffield, radio hosts were telling me the Yanks would be in trouble come October, because they simply don't have good enough pitching. Well, they still have the same pitching -- Cory Lidle notwithstanding -- which got me to wondering just how good (or not) their pitching really is. Here are composite stats of each playoff contenders' top three starters (who will get the vast majority of the innings in October) ...

IP BR/9 ERA
Twins 483 10.2 3.21
Tigers 528 11.3 3.75
Athletics 513 13.0 4.02
Yankees 554 10.9 4.06
ChiSox 541 11.9 4.39
The Twins look really good, thanks to Johan Santana and Francisco Liriano (and no thanks to Brad Radke). Obviously, we don't know if Liriano's going to be healthy enough to pitch in October. But if Liriano's not healthy, 1) the Twins probably won't make the playoffs, and b) if they do, Carlos Silva probably would go into the rotation, jumping the Big Three's ERA to 4.35, just fourth-best in the group. Granted, in the first round Santana would start twice … but eventually, if a team escapes the first round, its No. 3 guy is going to get his innings.
The Tigers, as you would guess, also fare well. But 1) their pitchers benefit from their ballpark, and 2) we still might reasonably wonder if Justin Verlander can hold up for seven months. I'm generally optimistic about young pitchers in October, as I've found no evidence that experience means beans in the postseason. But by season's end Verlander will be pushing 200 innings, and he's never come close to that sort of workload in his life.
Next come Oakland's Barry Zito, Danny Haren, and Esteban Loaiza. (Why Loaiza rather than Joe Blanton? Because Loaiza's ERA since the All-Star break is 3.10.) They're good, and would be even better with a healthy Rich Harden, who's supposedly coming along nicely and might be back in the rotation come October.
Then come the Yankees, and finally the White Sox. A year ago, White Sox starters posted the second-lowest ERA (3.75) in the American League, then breezed through October. This year they're seventh in the league, and behind the other postseason contenders.
I'm not going to argue in favor of the Yankees having the best starters in the postseason. They might, but they probably won't. Randy Johnson's been spotty this season, Mike Mussina's recovering from a (supposedly) slight injury, and Chien-Ming Wang is still proving to all of us that he can be highly successful without throwing the ball past anybody. But things are tough all over. Nobody's got Maddux-Glavine-Smoltz or Hudson-Mulder-Zito. Not this year.
And anyway, how many World Series did those two trios win, anyway? (That's a rhetorical question, of course; I know the answer is "one.") We've made some strides since I started doing this sort of thing, roughly 10 years ago. I have a pile of clippings on my desk, stuff I've been saving just this summer, and I'm amazed to see the extent to which sabermetrics have infiltrated the mass media. And then you read something like this, courtesy of Jeromy Burnitz and the Chicago Tribune: "But the facts say that at every level it's pitching first, then defense and then timely hitting."
Actually, the facts say that pitching and defense, taken together, are almost precisely as important as hitting (forget about timeliness). At every level, or at least every professional level. Sure, Jeromy Burnitz is just one man. But I suspect if you watched every game on TV, you'd hear this drivel at least once every day.
Pitching's a wonderful thing, and so is hitting. The Yankees, who play half their games in a pitcher's park, have scored more runs in road games than any other team in the league, and by a pretty hefty margin. Obviously, they can be beaten in October, just as they've been beaten in every October since 2000. But their pitching is just about as good as anybody's, and their hitting is better than everybody's.

---

• A number of kind people have sent me to this incredible Web site, and now I'm sending you (if you choose to go). I don't have anything of my own to add. Just go play around for a few minutes, and tell me if you're not impressed at least a little.
• Something else I've got piled on my desk: clippings of articles and columns written before the season, predicting that MLB's new amphetamines policy would result in noticeably decreased offensive production and, as a consequence, noticeably decreased attendance (here's one memorable example, but just one of many). Still waiting to read the retractions.
• Everybody wants to know if the Tigers are going to blow their lead. They probably will not. And if they do, it probably will not matter. Because even if they play poorly down the stretch, it will matter only if both the Twins and the White Sox play particularly well. Not likely. According to this page the Tigers still have roughly a 98-percent chance of making the playoffs, one way or the other.
• In fact, we probably already know, on Sept. 8, seven of the eight playoff teams. The National League East is decided, the Central is close, and the Dodgers and Padres are in great shape for the other two slots. Our best hopes for drama involve the Twins and White Sox and their season-ending series, and the Ryan Howard-led Phillies putting some pressure on whoever's running second in the NL West. Oh, and it looks like no pitcher in the National League is going to win 20 games, which hasn't happened in a full season since 1987, when Rick Sutcliffe led the NL with 18 wins. That's not dramatic, really. Moderately interesting, though (and the pundits will try to figure out what's different this year, even if nothing is).
• I thought the Indians were going to win the American League Central this season. Instead, they're in fourth place, with the 10th-best record in a 14-team league. They also have the fifth-best run differential in the league. You might think the Indians are bad and I was wrong. I prefer to think the Indians are unlucky and I was (mostly) right. And I'm picking them again next spring.
Senior writer Rob Neyer writes for Insider three times most weeks during the season. You can reach him via rob.neyer@dig.com, and his new book, "Rob Neyer's Big Book of Baseball Blunders," is available everywhere.


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Does anybody else fail to see his argument here? Mark Buehrle, Jose Contreras, Jon Garland, Freddie Garcia and Javier Vazquez might not be having career years, but I would take them over Randy Johnson, Mike Mussina, Corey Lidle, Chin Ming Wang and whoever the last guy is any day of the week. I would say the Tiger's have a somewhat suspect pitching staff right now, but I would not say the Yankee's pitching staff is on par with the Twins, A's or even the White Sox come playoff time, and I am going to go out on a limb and say it won't be on par with the Tigers either.

[YOUR Hero]

that's a homer article, no doubt

[ct2k]

Buerhle, Vazquez and Garcia over Mussina and Wang? Get the fuck outta here, Mussina's been the American league's most consistent pitcher since the early 90's and Wang has pitched better than all of the Chicago rotation this year, Chicago pitching has been decidedly lacklustre, Jenks has also been pretty friggin average.

[YOUR Hero]

Back to Ryan Howard.

Maybe he's not clean, but he's not been proven or suspected as on the juice. So until he is, he'd be the first clean player to potentially surpass Maris' mark.

Use you mind, and hypothesize!

[Evil Vito]

I was bored so I did a write up for what I think will be the Mets' postseason roster:
-------------------------
Pitchers (12): Pedro Martinez, Tom Glavine, Orlando Hernandez, Steve Trachsel, John Maine, Billy Wagner, Aaron Heilman, Chad Bradford, Roberto Hernandez, Pedro Feliciano, Darren Oliver, Guillermo Mota

I’m really liking this staff. The rotation is very iffy of course, but I believe this bullpen can definitely step it up. Not sure who gets bumped from the rotation to the bullpen though. I really hope its Trachsel as we’d probably never need to use him…but I can see them sooner sending Maine to the ‘pen. El Duque could also go to the ‘pen, but I doubt it.
-------------------------
Catchers (2): Paul Lo Duca, Ramon Castro

Hopefully Paulie stays hot right through October. I’m not sure if Castro is even going to be able to come back, but I heard if he is ready it will be in time for the playoffs. If its not him it’ll be either Mike DiFelice or Kelly Stinnett, neither of whom will likely play.
-------------------------
Infielders (6): Carlos Delgado, Jose Valentin, Jose Reyes, David Wright, Julio Franco, Chris Woodward

The starting four infielders are all great but I really dunno what would happen God forbid an injury occurs. Woodward has been terrible but Willie has a mancrush on him. Franco was a great-pinch hitter early on but now he’s kinda meh.
-------------------------
Outfielders (4): Cliff Floyd, Carlos Beltran, Shawn Green, Endy Chavez

Chavez has been awesome this year, but Floyd is still gonna start unless he injures himself again. Either way, Chavez is the primary pinch-hit candidate and also has great speed. Beltran’s awesome, enough said. Chavez can also spell Shawn Green if he has some bad games.
-------------------------
The 25th Man: Kind of a toss-up here. Some would say Lastings Milledge is the favorite to win the final roster spot to give the Mets a right-handed outfielder, but Willie already said he wouldn’t use Milledge as a pinch-hitter only…possibly a pinch-runner and that’s about it. Plus, Woodward can fill in as the #5 OFer or anywhere else.

Michael Tucker or Ricky Ledee will get consideration just so they can add another lefty bat off the bench (probably the most sensical choice)…it’d probably be Ledee since he has the post-season experience.

The only other viable option is Anderson Hernandez, who has not only great speed but would be phenomenal for late-inning defense. Hopefully he'll never have to bat though, as he's an automatic out.

-------------------------

Obviously there's some big question marks here...but I'm more than happy with this team. Clearly one of the top teams in the league. The only real way I see them not making the WS is if they end up getting paired up with a team that has an awesome pitching staff.

Florida (never thought I'd say that) and Houston are the teams that would give me the biggest worries in a short series.

[Joey Slugs]

Originally Posted by ct2k .Buerhle, Vazquez and Garcia over Mussina and Wang? Get the fuck outta here, Mussina's been the American league's most consistent pitcher since the early 90's and Wang has pitched better than all of the Chicago rotation this year, Chicago pitching has been decidedly lacklustre, Jenks has also been pretty friggin average.

I'm going to just flat out ignore your comments about the starting pitching and move right on to the Jenks comment:

He is pretty friggin average? Are you high? I'll admit that he looked like shit last night, but that is due to some hip problems. He has 39 saves in 43 chances, which makes him 2nd in all of baseball. His 71 strikeouts puts him in the top 10 for all closers. He has only given up 5 home runs in 64 innings, which is good for another top 10 in all of baseball. His 3.78 ERA looks pretty human but it is harder to lower your ERA when you are a closer. If you go through a rough patch, you just have to stick it out. His Pre-ASG ERA was a solid 2.83.

Average? Not fucking close.

[The Miz]

3.78 is pretty average for a closer. Yeah it's harder to lower your ERA, but if you're good it shouldn't be high to begin with.

1.30 WHIP is pretty average too. Can't use the "it's harder" excuse here because it's much easier for a closer to not allow baserunners.

The closers with more strikeouts than Jenks are Lidge, Saito, Putz, Wagner, Nathan, Ryan, KRod, Cordero, and Papelbon. The ones directly below him are Fuentes, Burgos, Gonzalez, Turnbow and Gordon. So if he's right in the middle of those two groups, what word would describe him well?

[BCWWF]

As of right now, the Yankees and the White Sox have pretty similar starting pitching, neither is anything special. If it came down to the playoffs, I would expect the White Sox pitchers to perform more than I would the Yankees.

[YOUR Hero]

execpt they don't start right now and for that matter the WSOX might not be in the playoffs.

[The Miz]

Like Hero said, it's about who's hot going in. See: 1997/2003 Florida Marlins

[DaveWadding]

WEBB 4 CY YOUNG

1 Hit CG SO vs. Cards tonight

[BCWWF]

Boof for Twins No. 2 pitcher. It is shocking that behind Santana, Boof has been the best pitcher in the last two or three weeks, yet we haven't falled back in the wildcard. I think Liriano has a rehab start soon, and could be back in the majors late next week. I don't really expect him to be as good as he was, I have a feeling he will be timid or something, but if Boof, Baker, Garza and Chief Silva can get it done, I'd imagine Liriano will boost that no matter how effective he is.

Hey Miz Gustavo wanted me to ask you how he did last night and that Chacin > Blanton

[Joey Slugs]

Originally Posted by The Miz 3.78 is pretty average for a closer. Yeah it's harder to lower your ERA, but if you're good it shouldn't be high to begin with. 1.30 WHIP is pretty average too. Can't use the "it's harder" excuse here because it's much easier for a closer to not allow baserunners. The closers with more strikeouts than Jenks are Lidge, Saito, Putz, Wagner, Nathan, Ryan, KRod, Cordero, and Papelbon. The ones directly below him are Fuentes, Burgos, Gonzalez, Turnbow and Gordon. So if he's right in the middle of those two groups, what word would describe him well?

Closers should only be measured on S/BS. Would make Jenks the second best CP in all of baseball.

[YOUR Hero]

whip

don't forget that.

[ct2k]

Thing is stats never tell the whole story, a guy could throughout the season come in 10 times in the 8th and by giving up runs create a save situation and then save it. Also you get those saves where the guy pitches 1/3 of an inning and stuff, the Save stat itself is not the best judge of a closer imo, its just part of it

[MVP]

Originally Posted by Joey Slugs Closers should only be measured on S/BS. Would make Jenks the second best CP in all of baseball.

Any closer can have 40+ saves, but if they're earning those saves and giving up 1-2 earned runs each outing then they're just lucky.

[BCWWF]

In a way, I don't want Liriano to come back just so I can take a shit in my hand and rub it in the faces of everybody who thought they were smart by implying the Twins had no chance of making the playoffs without him.

Santana goes 6.1 with no earned runs, Twins take 3/4 from Detroit, Chicago loses to Cleveland, THE AL CENTRAL IS TWO GAMES AWAY. But I guess I have no reason to get excited, because the Yankees have the best pitching in the league when the playoffs start.

[RoXer]

Ick. A's play Minn and Chic next.

[The Miz]

ONLY measured on S/CS? Are you fucking kidding me? So you'd take Player A over Player B?

A: 39/40 sv, 5.00 ERA, 1.50 WHIP
B: 35/40 sv, 2.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP

If Jenks had a great ERA but so-so save totals you know you'd be making the opposite argument.

And you do realize giving up 2 runs in 1 inning of a 3 run game constitutes a save, correct? And giving up 1 run in 1 inning of a 1 run game does not?

[BCWWF]

From a pure statistical point of view, that works, but it isn't flawless. Just for an example, say Kansas City had a closer with less saves/opportunities, and also a slightly lower ERA. I would still probably take Jenks, because even if he makes it interesting, he has proven throughout the whole year that he can save a ballgame. The Kansas City pitcher might have a lower ERA, but there is a major difference
between late innings and closing games. So I think it is stupid to completely rule that factor out of it.

That being said, to accurately throw Jenks out the window, I would rather see his stats in save situations rather than his stats overall. I know a lot of closers tend to give up runs in non-save situations.

[The Miz]

Saying saves is a good stat is like saying wins is a good stat. Its completely team dependent. If Jon Papelbon gives up 1 run in a 2-1 game, that's a blown save. If Rivera gives up 2 runs in a 3-0 game, that's a save. Proving that you can "save games" means nothing. Proving that you can get guys out (WHIP) and not allow runs (ERA) does.

[BCWWF]

There are plenty of guys who can get guys out and not allow a lot of runs in the eighth inning that can't in the ninth. I agree that it is team dependent for the most part, but if you are converting 95% of saves with an average ERA, I have to assume that you can get the job done when it really matters.

[Joey Slugs]

Originally Posted by The Miz ONLY measured on S/CS? Are you fucking kidding me? So you'd take Player A over Player B? A: 39/40 sv, 5.00 ERA, 1.50 WHIP B: 35/40 sv, 2.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP If Jenks had a great ERA but so-so save totals you know you'd be making the opposite argument. And you do realize giving up 2 runs in 1 inning of a 3 run game constitutes a save, correct? And giving up 1 run in 1 inning of a 1 run game does not?

I'll take Player A any day of the week. Wanna know why? 4 more saves means 4 more wins for the team.

[ct2k]

Yeah but 5 BS doesn't mean 5 losses to be fair

[OssMan]

Gertner logic

[ct2k]

Yknow I duno why people say things like "if i had to go on one stat", because nobody ever does, least of all a manager. I've just realised how stupid this whole argument is, its only relevent if you're talking about fantasy baseball at the end of the day, no manager worth a cent is gonna put a guy into the 9th inning of a 1 run ballgame when all he's seen of him is his ERA, S/BS and WHIP.

[The Miz]

Originally Posted by Joey Slugs I'll take Player A any day of the week. Wanna know why? 4 more saves means 4 more wins for the team.

They're on different teams. It doesn't mean 4 more wins, all wins aren't save situations. Use your head. It's the exact same thign as saying a mediocre pitcher on a great team is better than a great pitcher on a mediocre team beacause of win totals.

[The Miz]

Originally Posted by ct2k Yknow I duno why people say things like "if i had to go on one stat", because nobody ever does, least of all a manager. I've just realised how stupid this whole argument is, its only relevent if you're talking about fantasy baseball at the end of the day, no manager worth a cent is gonna put a guy into the 9th inning of a 1 run ballgame when all he's seen of him is his ERA, S/BS and WHIP.

So you just guy how a player looks then. Not what they've actually done on the field. Good strategy

[Jesus Shuttlesworth]

Papelbon > Jenks

[The Miz]

Wow Frank Thomas homers in 6 straight games. He needs to be given serious consideration for AL MVP. Carried the A's for like 2-3 months when he was the only one on the team hitting. The pitching is the story but without Thomas the race is between Texas and LAAAAAAAAAAA.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	SH	SF	HBP	GDP	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	PA
Frank Thomas	117	407	71	115	8	0	36	98	0	0	73	69	0	4	6	9	0.283	0.396	0.568	0.963	490

[MVP]

But what about Jenks? He's got 39 SV in 43 chances?

[BCWWF]

I agree with Miz for the most part, but I am just saying that you can't completely write off saves as a stat.

[YOUR Hero]

you write off any stat

[BCWWF]

It's funny how you purposely didn't capitolize that.

[ct2k]

Originally Posted by The Miz So you just guy how a player looks then. Not what they've actually done on the field. Good strategy

I said talking about one stat like you might one day have to make a snap world series clinching decision on it is bullshit.

wtf did you even read it?

[ct2k]

Jenks got his 40th save last night folks, gave up 2H and 1ER. Kyle Farnsworth also picked up a save and didn't give up any runs...But seeing as I don't even know what i'm arguing for/against now i'll shut up

Hey Miz,
I actually talked to Joe Blanton and he wanted me to ask you how he's een pitching

Chacin> Blanton