More likely to lose the title first - Punk or Sheamus

[Emperor Smeat]

Simple question, between Punk and Sheamus who looses their title first and is the person who wins the title the winner from this year's Money in the Bank or someone else?

For stats comparisons, Punk is currently over 213 days into his reign which has been the longest since 2008 and double the size of Miz's reign in 2010.

Sheamus is currently over 79 days into his reign but the last couple of recent big reigns for his belt has been in the 75 to 105 day range.