Slugs For Thought: Another Subway Series?

[Joey Slugs]

It is hard to believe, but it was just a few short weeks ago that there was a real question of whether or not the New York Yankees streak of eleven consecutive years of making the playoffs was going to come to an end. Well, there answer is now clear. As painful as this realization is for the entire Yankee-hating world, the answer is…“Yes.” The Yankees will be playing October baseball.

And so will the Mets.

That’s all we know for certain. As I have argued many times before, the playoffs are a crapshoot. Nothing is guaranteed. Yes, the Mets are by far the best team in the NL. And that means….pretty much nothing when game 1 of their NLDS begins. I would not be shocked if the Mets go three and out. I would not be shocked if the NL Wild Card team, who barely has an above .500 record, goes on a hot streak, knocking out the Mets and the AL Champion. That’s how it works in baseball. It is part of the reason why baseball is the best sport.

However, having said that, it’s always fun to speculate, and a rematch of the 2000 Subway Series is a real possibility. Thus, I thought it would be fun to do a little position-by-position comparison of the two teams. And, before we get to it, one big disclaimer: this also means….pretty much nothing when the first pitch is thrown. The Red Sox, even with all their injuries, would certainly win a position versus position analysis vs. the Royals, Mariners and Devil Rays, yet they were recently swept by the last-place Royals and the last-place Mariners and lost two of three to the last-place Devil Rays. It happens. That’s baseball. So, everything you are about to read is absolutely meaningless if they ever met on the field. But it’s still a fun idea for a column…

First Base
Carlos Delgado has had a resurgence in recent weeks, and is still one of the most dangerous hitters in the Mets lineup. However, I’d still give the advantage to the Yankees. Since his early season struggles last year, Giambi has been on fire and hasn’t really slowed down. While Delgado has some solid numbers – 35 HRs, 98 RBIs – his OBP of .369 is actually his lowest since 1997. On the other hand, Giambi is an on-base machine (.410) and has a higher SLG (.576 to Delgado’s .565) to boot. Advantage: Yankees

Second Base
I know Jose Valentin has been a pleasant surprise for the Mets, but he is still Jose Valentin. And while I think Robinson Cano is overrated, he has been on fire since coming off the DL. And he’s certainly better than Jose Valentin. Advantage: Yankees

Shortstop
Let me just state now that I not the biggest Reyes fan. However, I have to say, he’s won me over. My biggest concern was always his inability to take pitches and draw walks. Well, with a healthy .351 OBP, he is now one of the best leadoff hitters in all of baseball. I admit, I never thought his OBP would get this high. Having said that though, he’s no Captain Intangibles. Derek Jeter is having an MVP-type season. He is in the top 10 in the AL in AVG, OBP, R, H and SBs. A .421 OBP from your shortstop is a powerful weapon. The Yankee lineup really is amazing. Advantage: Yankees

Third Base
Do the Mets have an advantage in at least one infield position? If it’s anywhere, it’s at third base. David Wright has been pretty disappointing since the All-Star break, but his overall numbers are still solid across the board. I think he may soon be the best player in New York, although he is not quite there yet. But is he at the point that he is superior to A-Rod? Well, it’s close. For all A-Rod’s struggles, and he certainly has struggled this year, his numbers are comparable to Wright’s. I’m not going to get into the whole “clutch” thing, as that is another column in itself, so let’s stick to the numbers. So, who has the advantage here? Let’s take a quick comparison of the two most important numbers:

D-Wright: .379 OBP, .533 SLG
A-Rod: .379 OBP, .505 SLG

Hmmm. Close. All the counting stats are similar: HRs, RBIs, Rs, etc. OK, I’m taking the easy way out. Advantage: Push

Catcher
Another close one. Posada is still one of the best catchers in all of baseball, but the gap is not that big and Lo Duca has put up solid numbers in his first season in New York. His defense has been stellar as well. What do the numbers say?

Posada: .371 OBP, .455 SLG
Lo Duca: .355 OBP, .425 SLG

Not much difference there. If you put stock in “playoff experience,” you certainly take Posada. Of course, I think that is meaningless. But you know, I’d still rather have Posada. I just think he is better. Advantage: Yankees

Outfield
Who would you rather have: Beltran, Green and Chavez or Damon, Cabrera and Abreu? Tough call. Beltran is the best of all six players, but if I ranked them top to bottom, 2 and 3 would be Abreu and Damon. Green is fading fast, but I’d rather have him than Cabrera, so I’d put him 4th. And Cabera is superior to Chavez. However, if Matsui and/or Sheffield come back, the advantage certainly swings to the Yankees. Who knows with injuries though? But I am about to be very optimistic with some Met injuries in the Starting Pitching section, so I am going to be just as so here. Advantage: Yankees

Starting Pitching
This one depends on the status of the Mets injured starters. With Pedro out and Glavine unimpressive in his first start back from an injury, I’d have to give the advantage to the Yankees. Wang has been impressive all-year, Mussina is still and above-average starter and Randy Johnson is, well….Wang and Mussina are two solid starters. For both ballclubs, the starting staff is the biggest question mark. Both teams have solid offenses, but who can they rely on come October on the mound. If, and this is a big if, Pedro and Glavine are fine, I’d have to give the advantage to the Mets. Maybe this is false confidence, but I don’t get too worried about Pedro. I just have a feeling he is going to dominate come the playoffs. Glavine has plenty of time to get back in the groove. Trachsel’s season has been incredibly fluky but he is still fine for a Game 3 start vs Randy. El Duque, Lidle, and all the other 4/5 starts on both teams are a dime a dozen. So, who has the advantage? Right now. Yankees. But in this hypothetical World Series which may never come, I am allowed to also say hypothetically that Pedro and Glavine are in top form for its start. Advantage: Hypothetically, the Mets

Bullpen
If either team takes a 1 run lead into the 9th inning, I’d certainly feel safer with Rivera on the mound than Wagner. However, that’s only one piece of the bullpen and the Mets middle relief – Mota, Heilman, Hernandez, Bradford, Oliver etc. – has been superior all year than the Yankees mix of Farnsworth, Proctor, Sturtze, Villone, Myers etc. And while I absolutely feel Rivera is the one of the best closers in the history of baseball, Wagner is not exactly chopped liver. The advantage the Yanks have in the 9th is not enough to make up for the gap in the middle innings in case a start can’t go 8. Advantage: Mets

There you have it folks. In a meaningless comparison, the Yankees certainly prevail. No surprise here. Despite the absence of Sheffield and Matsui, the Yankee lineup really is absolutely unreal. Despite losing arguably two of their best offensive weapons, the Yankees still lead all of baseball in runs scored. And while the Mets have the arms advantage, it is very close, and one can easily argue in the other direction for the starters and bullpen, especially given the uncertainty around Pedro and Glavine. In fact, the Yankees could have the advantage in every category above. Overall, one thing is clear: the Yankees are a superior team. And since the playoffs are indeed a crapshoot, that won’t change no matter what happens come October.

[OssMan]

Yeah yankees suck though

[ct2k]

Its hard to call, Mets are a great team no doubt, but their record is definitely inflated by being in the NL.

I think our problem is definitely still starting pitching. As you said Wang and Mussina have been great all year, Johnson has flirted with brilliance on quite a few occasions but also had some awful starts, I think he's definitely gotten more consistent as the season has progressed though. Lidle has also shown some good stuff since coming over, Wright has been good in spells but I dunno if we can rely on him come playoffs purely because he so rarely goes beyond the 5th or 6th.

As far as defense goes I see our two problems being obvious ones, A-Rod at 3rd and Johnny Damon in centre. Damon isn't bad, but his arm leaves a lot to be desired. Cabrera has done a great job btw!

Offensively we're one of the 2 or 3 best teams in baseball Imo, even without Matsui and Sheff

[dablackguy]

Ok Joey, I'll take you up on this...

Originally Posted by Joey Slugs First Base Carlos Delgado has had a resurgence in recent weeks, and is still one of the most dangerous hitters in the Mets lineup. However, I’d still give the advantage to the Yankees. Since his early season struggles last year, Giambi has been on fire and hasn’t really slowed down. While Delgado has some solid numbers – 35 HRs, 98 RBIs – his OBP of .369 is actually his lowest since 1997. On the other hand, Giambi is an on-base machine (.410) and has a higher SLG (.576 to Delgado’s .565) to boot. Advantage: Yankees

I'm gonna have to strongly disagree here. Giambi struggled in June and July hitting only .221 in those months, though his power numbers didn't drop off in those months. Giambi is what he is, a .250 hitter hitter with bunch of pop. He's hitting .241 since the break and his power has dropped off. What he's not is any kind of solid defensive player. He can and has hurt the yankees with his glove.(7 errors in 59 games at the position) Delgado isn't a gold glover either, but after hearing stories about how bad be was before he came here, I have to say he's certainly competant and probably holds his own. (6 errors in 121 games at the position) Offensively, Giambi wins, but as a complete player, Delgado is far better than Giambi defensively and thus...

Dablackguy's Opinion: Push

Originally Posted by Joey Slugs Second Base I know Jose Valentin has been a pleasant surprise for the Mets, but he is still Jose Valentin. And while I think Robinson Cano is overrated, he has been on fire since coming off the DL. And he’s certainly better than Jose Valentin. Advantage: Yankees

Statwise they're surprisingly similar, though Cano had played about 20 less games. In a playoff situation, if you had to choose between Cano's youth but in experience or Valentin's experience but age, its an interesting call. Even with that said, I completely agree that Cano is the superior player.

Dablackguy's Opinion: Advantage Cano

Originally Posted by Joey Slugs Shortstop Let me just state now that I not the biggest Reyes fan. However, I have to say, he’s won me over. My biggest concern was always his inability to take pitches and draw walks. Well, with a healthy .351 OBP, he is now one of the best leadoff hitters in all of baseball. I admit, I never thought his OBP would get this high. Having said that though, he’s no Captain Intangibles. Derek Jeter is having an MVP-type season. He is in the top 10 in the AL in AVG, OBP, R, H and SBs. A .421 OBP from your shortstop is a powerful weapon. The Yankee lineup really is amazing. Advantage: Yankees

Just wanna throw in that Reyes has more home runs, runs and stolen bases than Jeter. Reyes has one less error as well. Armwise, they're comparable, which is a major compliment to Reyes. Talent wise, Reyes has certainly surpassed Jeter at a surprisingly young age, but can't match Jeter's intangibles at this point. And by intangibles, I'm merely talk about clutch play in this instance.


Dablackguy's Opinion: Advantage Jeter, but again on talent alone, Reyes has surpassed him

Originally Posted by Joey Slugs Third Base Do the Mets have an advantage in at least one infield position? If it’s anywhere, it’s at third base. David Wright has been pretty disappointing since the All-Star break, but his overall numbers are still solid across the board. I think he may soon be the best player in New York, although he is not quite there yet. But is he at the point that he is superior to A-Rod? Well, it’s close. For all A-Rod’s struggles, and he certainly has struggled this year, his numbers are comparable to Wright’s. I’m not going to get into the whole “clutch” thing, as that is another column in itself, so let’s stick to the numbers. So, who has the advantage here? Let’s take a quick comparison of the two most important numbers: D-Wright: .379 OBP, .533 SLG A-Rod: .379 OBP, .505 SLG Hmmm. Close. All the counting stats are similar: HRs, RBIs, Rs, etc. OK, I’m taking the easy way out. Advantage: Push

A-Rod has more runs and home runs, but Wright has the better average, more RBI and more stolen bases. Neither guy is amazing defensively, but Wright has 6 less errors a similar number of games. All other relveant stats are similar. Despite this, and your desire to not go into the clutch factor, I will. Bottom line: I know who I want up if its 2 on, 2 out in the bottom of the 8th down 4-3.

Dablackguy's Opinion: Advantage Wright, but only slightly

Originally Posted by Joey Slugs Catcher Another close one. Posada is still one of the best catchers in all of baseball, but the gap is not that big and Lo Duca has put up solid numbers in his first season in New York. His defense has been stellar as well. What do the numbers say? Posada: .371 OBP, .455 SLG Lo Duca: .355 OBP, .425 SLG Not much difference there. If you put stock in “playoff experience,” you certainly take Posada. Of course, I think that is meaningless. But you know, I’d still rather have Posada. I just think he is better. Advantage: Yankees

LoDuca's defense in my opinion is slightly better, though Posada is certainly no slouch. Offenively there is no comparison, they're 2 entirely different players.

Dablackguy's Opinion: Advantage Posada

Originally Posted by Joey Slugs Outfield Who would you rather have: Beltran, Green and Chavez or Damon, Cabrera and Abreu? Tough call. Beltran is the best of all six players, but if I ranked them top to bottom, 2 and 3 would be Abreu and Damon. Green is fading fast, but I’d rather have him than Cabrera, so I’d put him 4th. And Cabera is superior to Chavez. However, if Matsui and/or Sheffield come back, the advantage certainly swings to the Yankees. Who knows with injuries though? But I am about to be very optimistic with some Met injuries in the Starting Pitching section, so I am going to be just as so here. Advantage: Yankees

Assume good health for all heading into the postseason. You have Floyd, Beltran and Green vs Matsui, Damon and Abreu. In my opinion, if ranked it would be:

Beltran
Damon
Matsui
Abreu
Floyd
Green

Beltran obviously is the best and most complete player in that group, followed by Damon, though Damon's arm is weak. Matsui and Abreu were tough to rank for me, because there is no way to tell how Matsui is going to come back from the wrist injury which was in his left hand.(Obviously, he's a lefty hitter so that goes into account) Matsui as an outfielder ranges from adequate to awful. Abreu is solid defensively, but hasn't shown much power since he came over, just a gap hitter. In that lineup though, he doesn't need to be. Which is similar to Green, Green doesn't need to hit 25 home runs anymore, just be a gap to gap hitter and a tough out in that 7 hole. Floyd when healthy puts up slightly inferior numbers to Matsui, but won't hurt a team with his glove. So in conclusion:

Floyd/Matsui: Matsui, but the injuries and defensive shortcomings make it closer than it should be
Beltran/Damon: Beltran
Green/Abreu: Abreu, Similar games offensively, but Abreu covers more ground and has a better arm

Dablackguy's Opinion: Outfield: This is probably the closest category, but extremely slight edge to the Yankees (about the length of an asshair) because of how weak that group is defensively and in the playoffs, where you can't give extra outs and extra runs, saving runs is as important if not more than scoring them

Originally Posted by Joey Slugs Starting Pitching This one depends on the status of the Mets injured starters. With Pedro out and Glavine unimpressive in his first start back from an injury, I’d have to give the advantage to the Yankees. Wang has been impressive all-year, Mussina is still and above-average starter and Randy Johnson is, well….Wang and Mussina are two solid starters. For both ballclubs, the starting staff is the biggest question mark. Both teams have solid offenses, but who can they rely on come October on the mound. If, and this is a big if, Pedro and Glavine are fine, I’d have to give the advantage to the Mets. Maybe this is false confidence, but I don’t get too worried about Pedro. I just have a feeling he is going to dominate come the playoffs. Glavine has plenty of time to get back in the groove. Trachsel’s season has been incredibly fluky but he is still fine for a Game 3 start vs Randy. El Duque, Lidle, and all the other 4/5 starts on both teams are a dime a dozen. So, who has the advantage? Right now. Yankees. But in this hypothetical World Series which may never come, I am allowed to also say hypothetically that Pedro and Glavine are in top form for its start. Advantage: Hypothetically, the Mets

2 points I want to make:
If Pedro is healthy, he's the best pitcher in that group.
Game three, I go nowhere near Trachsel, i go to El Duque.

That said, In a potential game one, Mussina and Pedro is about even. In a game 2, Glavine and Wang would also be about even. I wouldn't trust Randy Johnson as far as I could throw him and think it would be advantage Mets in a Duque vs Johnson matchup only because of Johnson's uncertainly and Duque's big game reputation. Game 4 would be an issue, where would the Yankees go? Wright? Lidle? In my opinion, eventually Cory Lidle is going to pitch like Cory Lidle again and I want him nowhere near a postseason game when it happens. That would leave you with Wright who doesn't go more than a hundred pitches or 6 innings. Make no mistake I don't love Trachsel either, he could very well be the worst fifteen game winner in the history of basbeall with his 5 era and almost as many walks as strikeouts.Game 4 would probably be your 9-8 game or so. Starter wise, I could put my trust in the Mets one-two-three. I can't do that with the Yankees, not with what I saw from Randy last year in Anaheim, and with what he's done since he's been a Yankee.

Dablackguy's Opinion: Advantage Mets, but could certainly shift back the other way quickly

Originally Posted by Joey Slugs Bullpen If either team takes a 1 run lead into the 9th inning, I’d certainly feel safer with Rivera on the mound than Wagner. However, that’s only one piece of the bullpen and the Mets middle relief – Mota, Heilman, Hernandez, Bradford, Oliver etc. – has been superior all year than the Yankees mix of Farnsworth, Proctor, Sturtze, Villone, Myers etc. And while I absolutely feel Rivera is the one of the best closers in the history of baseball, Wagner is not exactly chopped liver. The advantage the Yanks have in the 9th is not enough to make up for the gap in the middle innings in case a start can’t go 8. Advantage: Mets

In the event a Met starter only goes 6, its not the end of the world because you have Hernandez, Bradford, Oliver, Heilman and Wagner you could mix and match to get 9 outs. If a Yankee starter goes 6, you have a bit more of an issue. Unless you decide you go with Proctor for 2, then Rivera. Or do you go Proctor for one, Farnsworth and then Rivera? The problem becomes if you over use a guy to win a game you then lose him at some point for another game. If Torre uses Proctor for 6 outs then he probably couldn't use him in the next game.

In a 3-2 game bottom 7 with Beltran up at the plate, I would not trust Ron Villone to get that out. Sturtze is out for the year, and Torre doesn't trust Farnsworth and neither do I. All things being equal, if both starters for some reason only went 5, the Yankees are in big trouble. Whomever wasn't your fourth starter would be your long man and thta doesn't bode well if he's needed.

Dablackguy's Opinion: Advantage Mets, only slightly because of Rivera. With no Rivera, it becomes a major advantage.

So what do you have: Better pitching on the Met end, both starting and bullpen and better defense. The Yankees have the better players certainly, but in my opinion, the better all around team is the Mets. One thing to consider, in the event of a world series, you would have Sheffield back. This is relelvant two fold, one because its another bat, but also because he becomes your DH and Giambi has to then play first, thus weakening your defense even more. And as they say, which is constantly proven, pitching and defense win championships.

[RoXer]

FINALLY! I was wondering what dablackguy's thoughts on this were.

[ct2k]

lol.

For the record, as far as Abreu's lack of power, I say its nul and void tbh, his OBP is something like .450 since he joined us, he's getting walks, batting over .300, stealing bases, hitting for extra bases and driving in runs, sure some home runs would be nice but i'd take him over a hell of a lot of guys.

Another nack our guys have is for taking pitches, it gets commented on a lot but its true, after once through the order chances are a pitcher will've thrown every trick in his arsenal. Also most of our line-up have seen a lot of Pedro, and a HELL of a lot of El Duque.